Shotgun Marriage

Croatian President Franjo Tudjman claims to be seriously upset and fed up with UNPROFOR. From now on it won't be just "hold me so I don't kill him", he wants to take what is his. This is when Republic of Serbian Krajina President Milan Martic also reached the conclusion that he too, had a right to be upset and decided that he wasn't going to read the plan put forward by the Zagreb branch of the Contact Group for Croatia. If Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic can make a fool of all those special envoys, then he can do the same to four ordinary ambassadors. And now Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic is also starting to lose his cool and has refused to meet with the quartet. He's not going to talk to someone who's not good enough for Martic. And now let them say that he has betrayed the Serbian cause and sold out on Krajina. "This is a vicious circle", said US Ambassador to Zagreb Peter Galbraith, who seems to have reached this conclusion on his own. I think that the Americans could be the first to give up and try to withdraw gradually from the Serbian-Croatian-Bosnian issue. They find it hard to find their bearings here: nothing has a price and nothing is for sale, everybody has the right to everything, and everybody wants it all free. At the same time, no one knows who the partners in the game are, how many there are, what degree of independence they have, and what it is that they really want.

With regard to the latest tensions over Krajina, two theories are in circulation. According to the first, Milosevic and Tudjman have reached a secret agreement on everything, while the second theory claims that a Serbian-Croatian war will break out in two months' time. Theory no 1. strikes me as being incorrect, since the two men have never been able to reach an agreement with anyone, except the Devil, who would be the best mediator in the negotiations. I wouldn't exclude the possibility that Tudjman does believe in some of the things that Milosevic has promised him, but the opposite is impossible. But, they are sincere in equal measure.

It is more likely that there will still be war over Krajina, because of everything or something else. Zagreb is in a hurry, since it sees the Knin fortress as the only obstacle to Croatia's happiness and bliss. The Croats see that Martic is prepared to put off their happiness indefinitely, even though the whole world has agreed that all of Krajina, Martic included, belong to Croatia. At the same time, the whole world is cautioning Tudjman not to rush into war, but he would like, before the end of his mandate, and during his lifetime, to give the Croats their homeland, at least within the old borders.

Martic would prefer it if he didn't have to fight, which doesn't mean that he would spare Croatian cities, especially if he saw that he was losing. Karadzic and Milosevic would also prefer not to interfere and take care of what they have, but the policy of caution and of looking after what you have, in war, is often the riskiest. The Devil himself wouldn't be able to tell who would fight whom, what the outcome would be, so that I think he too, will withdraw and be happy with what he has done so far.

I don't believe that a new war is in the offing, neither in Croatia nor in Bosnia, which doesn't mean that the current status quo can be recommended to all. There will still be shooting and destruction, but it will concern details. The rough work can be considered finished. This, however, means that this whole mess, unrecognized state, controversial borders, tyrannical regimes, disloyal citizens, irresponsible armies, pirate-style business, insane patriots, all this could last much longer than was thought at first.

In fact, it would be reasonable to look on this as a regular state of affairs. There is no point in deluding ourselves with the optimistic deception that we are still undefeated, and that a miracle will happen, and that things will be put right quickly. The wasted lives of anti-communist emigres spent in waiting, and hoping that communism would soon fall apart, and in preparing for a triumphal return, are very sad.

Yes, we are living in the middle of a vicious circle, and that means that we are no longer waiting for salvation to come from somewhere, and that is a form of freedom in itself. If we look at things this way, we can expect some pleasant surprises. I think it would be best if the rest of the world were to start regarding us as an unsolved case which should be left as such for a while. Disorder has a logic and rules of its own which ensure its stability and natural period of duration.

At this moment, practically all the important protagonists, in authority and opposition, from Belgrade via Pale, Sarajevo, Knin and Zagreb, to international organizations worldwide are actually working on maintaining the existing disorder. The political dynamism and relation of these forces is such that the results lead to nothing. This infernal balance will one day be disrupted, somebody will run out of strength or willpower, but that day is still far away.

The very mechanism of maintaining disorder is best illustrated by the upset leaders at the beginning of this story. This type of authority and politician must always be frustrated. This is because the Man has to tackle problems of historical dimensions and doesn't have time to think of us and our small nonsense, and while he is involved thus, no one must knock on the door and interrupt with various questions which could suddenly become big and unsolvable.

A miracle would happen. We would understand that our right to being upset has been usurped, and we would start using it freely, and the leaders would find themselves confused, scared and accused, which is the natural division of roles in a democratic society. I don't wish to say that the present chaos, violence and evil are just the products of our leaders' bad temper and indisposition, nor that some bright spark would now be able to put everything in order and agree on demarcation, mutual recognition and reconciliation. But even if this job were much easier, it wouldn't be carried out by those who don't wish to do it.

Slobodan Milosevic is without a doubt, the best and most successful example of such a leader, one who likes to have a lot of big and open issues. Tudjman only has Krajina, while Milosevic has Bosnia and Kosovo. These are real problems, but he doesn't disown small, trifling ones either. Milosevic could have recognized Macedonia, instead of entering into murky and unrealistic combinations with Greece.

It seems that Serbian politics are additionally poisoned with secret ambitions of reviving the former Yugoslavia, something Ms Markovic (Mirjana, Slobodan Milosevic's wife) dreams of, as if there were not enough trouble in Serbia and with the Bosnian Serbs. The matter does not concern a harmless Yugo-nostalgia, nor are such ambitions based on recognizing some real interests and respect of free will. The ruling pair in Serbia seems to believe that all, except Slovenia, can still be forced to live together. Relations with Greece are nurtured in order to intimidate Macedonia and persuade it to return, just as Yugoslav Foreign Minister Vladislav Jovanovic is offering Istria to Italy in order that Zagreb might turn to Belgrade again.

I haven't heard of a marriage that survived just because one side wouldn't agree to a divorce, and I can't imagine what kind of a life it would be. I still think that Yugoslavia was a good idea, but I don't know any Yugo-nostalgics who would want such a country to be founded on threats, fear and hatred. They are all horrified by intentions which insult memories and destroy their last hopes - much more than individual nationalism.

And while all big issues remain open, while the inertia of disorder continues, the only real resistance is being made by housewives infected with a crazy urge to put things back in their place. That which survives, will survive thanks to their ignoring of national fates, borders, territories and all historical affairs. Then we'll be able to see who was mad.