Lone Wolf

They've been playing the game all month; four times in four different locations. Djindjic was the first to start; he dumped a technical coalition on the table. Vuk Draskovic responded with a program coalition and then the game picked up unbelievable speed: initiatives to impeach the president, topple the federal government, another technical coalition, division of mandates, different division of mandates, departure from local community authorities, acceptance of a technical coalition. Finally, Vuk played his favorite trump: a rally! That card was left on the table for a while and the other three (Djindjic, Seselj and Kostunica) finally picked it up while Vuk backed off quietly. The game isn't over yet.

At the same time, the Serbian Socialist Party main board met in its Belgrade headquarters. VREME sources said it decided not to meddle in the opposition game. The Socialists have been saying publicly and privately that they aren't interested in elections or the opposition and after insignificant personnel changes they focused on the Serb opposition across the Drina river.

In other words the SPS policy at home won't change at all: Seselj, Djindjic and Kostunica will be treated as warmongers and Karadzic's men in Serbia; Vuk Draskovic will be tolerated.

"There are two ways to get a concession from Milosevic," a high ranking Serbian renewal Movement official told VREME. "One is to pressure him like we did on the streets, the second is his own irrational wish; for example to become president of Yugoslavia," he said initiating a story about Draskovic's real motives. The SPO feels the second element (irrationality) is in the game now. In short, Milosevic doesn't want elections in the next two years; he wants a change in the federal constitution; he might not win a two thirds majority in federal parliament; he can have those two thirds before the elections if he barters with the SPO and if, in return, Draskovic becomes president of Serbia.

Even the SPO isn't quite convinced of that scenario but they are fully prepared to use it as a starting point in any possible negotiations both with the opposition and the authorities. To the rest of the opposition the SPO wants to seem to be "the only one Milosevic can work with so we're stronger than you." To the authorities: "we are the ideal partner but our price is very high."

That belief has at least one bad side. Draskovic has stopped paying attention to what the rest of the opposition is doing in the belief that they can't do anything without him. That's why, for the first time since the opposition was formed, he joined the whole thing later and wasn't the initiator or leader. He'll never lead the Serbian opposition, Vojislav Seselj said.

Everything Draskovic does is conditioned on past activities. He refused a small union and offered a big one. OK, his opponents said, but if we can unite on a big scale why can't we unite on a small scale first. He responded to their meetings with press conferences; he refused to see them when they didn't acknowledge his leading position. When Vuk finally met his opponents in Studio B director Dragan Kojadinovic's office he shook hands only with Seselj. The story of a united Serbian opposition probably ended there.

Some analysts in the SPO said the party didn't reach its highest point on March 9, 1991 when the anti-regime sentiment was put out with tanks, but at the St. Vitus day gathering a year later. "We had nothing but the crowd on March 9," an SPO official told VREME. "The ST. Vitus day gathering had what we call logistical support from the university, academy, Church. We gained much more then."

After Vuk made the rally call, someone in the SPO remembered that the crowd would not be as big as it was on March 9, 1991 and the logistical support wouldn't be there. "If Kostunica, Seselj, and Djindjic don't show up for the rally we can easily find a traitor, but what happens if they do show up," the official said.

And they did agree to come. In accord with their traditional tactics that everything Draskovic offers should be accepted but conditionally. Draskovic knew what was coming and he told them to organize everything themselves. "SPO members will be there but the rally is yours," he said.

Nice move, but the potato is still hot even for the man who renounced it.

The final, most probable version of events, is that Vuk and the SPO would turn up for the rally where the SPO membership would raise their voices to call Vuk to the stand to speak.

What could bother Draskovic is that none of the other three opposition party leaders has anything against that version. Anything that makes his life more difficult makes their job easier and they seem to be aware that Draskovic has to do everything to make the rally work. They've decided on a step by step strategy and the rally is just another step.

The boys are in gear and they have no intention of stopping, while the socialists have held a meeting of their main board. So while the uninformed think everything the opposition is doing is very serious, informed sources have no illusions. They and the socialists know that the game is being played with no trump cards and they also know that the opposition will become aware of the fact only once the main player slams his trump on the table and ends the game. Until then, watch and enjoy.