An Open letter to Milosevic

Even though there is no solid evidence, it is certain that the offensive by Milosevic's opponents West of the Drina River and their followers who would wish to prevent such developments, has started in great style. At least three events confirm this: the Republika Srpska (RS) Assembly session in Bosanski Samac, the breaking away of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in Krajina from the central party in Serbia and the meeting between Krajina President Milan Martic and Milosevic.

Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic's message to world power-brokers is very clear: "If the international community does not resolve the issue by May 1, in a way in which we can, shall I say swallow it, one which does not satisfy us completely but is acceptable to us and the other two sides, we will answer Muslim force with a defensive offensive against all their weak points, against all the points of Muslim-held territory. Not against the unimportant ones, but the most painful ones, and we will not stop until a definite and guaranteed solution is offered, one which from the point of international law will define the borders and the nature of the newly-created states."

When speaking of Milosevic, neither the MPs nor their guests left anything unsaid. Seven independent MPs headed by Milorad Dodig, who recently, with a big group of RS businessmen were received by Milosevic, were accused for violating "the monolith unity of the people and their leader", "of pilgrimages to Belgrade in search of their opinions", and finally proclaimed "ideological enemies". All this adds up to treason and only because of a meeting with yesterday's "leader of all the Serbs in the world". Because the way Radovan Karadzic puts it, it is one thing to agree to talk when the Contact Group for Bosnia plan is just the base which enables negotiations to begin, and another to talk with the man who has accepted the plan as a final solution.

"Gentlemen, we could go down in the world, we could lock up some firms and open up soup kitchens", said Karadzic, "but should we open up soup kitchens and have one meager meal per day in order that we might hold out, or should we perhaps cross over and join our killers".

It is common knowledge that Karadzic's enemies in Bosnia-Herzegovina are all those who are of a different nationality. Zahumlje-Herzegovina Bishop Atanasije Jeftic hurried to make it clear that the circle of enemies has rapidly grown - regardless of nationality. He considers Milosevic to be "a tyrant, a despot, who never asks anybody anything, doesn't consult anyone and is not responsible to anyone". Milosevic's patriotism is lethal, "his patriotism is reminiscent of a hysterical mother who terrorizes her own children and home". The Bishop then said that Milosevic should "cover his head triply, and stop giving free advice", reminding him of the way Serb leaders had fared in the past in similar circumstances.

Bosnian Serb MPs applauded the speech enthusiastically, took up pen and paper, and wrote Milosevic an open letter.

Unlike the Bishop, they praised Milosevic for having "started the battle for the dignity of the Serbian people" and for "enduring all pressures and rejecting the Hague document". Then they cautioned him that "the people remember us by our words and respect us for our deeds" and called on him to lift "the iron curtain over the Drina River" at a time when "our enemies are preparing the worst genocidal war of extermination". Guilt for the rift does not lie with them because: "We were prepared to die in order that Serbia might never bow down". RS Assembly deputies underscore that the Contact Group for Bosnia maps will never be accepted and that they will not give up a sovereign state. This is why they were appealing to Milosevic not to knuckle under pressure, and to use his authority to set up once again "dignity in Serbian politics and ensure the unification of the Serbian state", in order that they might be proud of him again.

The letter underscores that the "world has understood that the recognition of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina was a mistake" and ask Milosevic to take the same stand. The MPs in Pale (Bosnian Serb political center) had allegedly, breathed more easily when "Yugoslavia had taken over obligations from the Vance plan which guaranteed the security of the RSK". This, and the conclusion that "all Serbs must be told that a great war is being prepared against us, a war which will decide the future of all Serbs", is being interpreted as a clear message that the leaders in Pale have decided to go for all or nothing. In other words, Belgrade is being threatened that it will be dragged into war if it opts to recognize Bosnia-Herzegovina or makes some such similar move.

It has been learned unofficially that the last session of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) Main Committee debated the party situation east of the Drina River with emphasis on Krajina. The rift in the SRS and the breaking away of the SRS Krajina branch, are proof of the promptness with which the SPS reacted. It is said that the Socialists believe that their main opponents in Krajina are the Radicals as the most faithful followers of the Bosnian Serb leadership's policy because of its influence in Serbia, while the other local parties can be held under control in one way or another. It is possible to explain SRS RSK President Rade Leskovac's stand in this light. Speaking in Vukovar, Leskovac justified the split by accusing SRS leader Vojislav Seselj of autocracy and his decision that certain Radical MPs in the RSK Assembly become Martic's advisors, while Martic is "Milosevic's man" and as such, their political opponent.

The SRS in Belgrade was not caught napping. Knowing what was up, the SRS Central Fatherland Front excluded Leskovac and his supporters from the party ten days ago. Seselj believes that one Krajina Assembly MP will join the renegades. His plan to visit Krajina in March shows that he believes he has the situation under control. Seselj plans to call a meeting in Belgrade next week which will be attended by SRS Krajina Assembly deputies which will show without a shadow of a doubt who is the Boss.

Feeling that the dramatic moment faced by Serbia opens up the possibility for the lifting of sanctions in exchange for the recognition of AVNOJ (WWII Partisan parliament) drawn borders of the breakaway republics of the former Yugoslavia, Krajina President Milan Martic visited Belgrade. Of all the Serbian presidents he faces the most difficult situation. He and his team do not have authentic political clout, and must choose if they will follow Belgrade or Pale. In the first case the prospects in the long run entail the accepting of the Z-4 plan. If he wishes to remain in power, Martic will have to put up his candidacy for President of the Autonomous Province of Serb Krajina in Croatia. If, however, he opts for Pale, things will probably continue as they have for some time but without food from Serbia and a very foggy and dreary future. Bearing in mind Karadzic's promise of "soup kitchens", he cannot count on any other help from Republika Srpska.

Martic, however, counts on a third option which might preserve the "all-Serb" political line followed in the past few years. And this is why he believes that "President Milosevic's stand that Krajina and Croatia must resolve the conflict in direct negotiations, to be correct", but underscores that he "doesn't believe that there is a single politician in Serbia or Yugoslavia who would be ready to recognize Croatia within its AVNOJ borders". It seems that Martic is still trying to play the role of mediator and peace-maker between "two Serb centers" which he started in August 1994. Experts on inter-Serbian relations believe, however, that the authorities in Belgrade and Pale are trying to trip each other up and are using Martic for the purpose, and this is why he is being met with suspicion. However, those familiar with the way the two leaderships carry out their decision-making, are paying great attention with whom Martic is fraternizing - Serbian Ministry of the Interior State Security Department head Jovica Stanisic or his counterpart in the RS.

One thing is certain - this is a period of uncertainty in Serbian -Serbian relations. Milosevic can choose between a sparrow in the hand and a pigeon on the roof. The sparrow in the hand is the lifting of sanctions after the recognition of AVNOJ borders with international guarantees that "Serbs in the diaspora" will be protected, while the pigeon on the roof is a Greater Serbia whose future is problematical.

On the one hand, Milosevic is applying a tardy pragmatism in trying to save what he can of his policy so far. "The protected Serb people" fits well in this concept: Krajina's status can easily be interpreted as that of a "Croatian Kosovo" with all the consequences this implies in the future. The Bosnian Serbs' statehood is not at issue but the territory they control. On the other hand, they are all Serbs who were once proud of Milosevic and took him at his word that they would all live in one state one day. The decision lies with Milosevic. He will not make it before the real effect of the RS deputies' letter on Serbia's political life is determined, or the way it affects SPS success in taming the Bosnian Serbs' political life, and until the right place is found for Martic for whom a lot of his political-police mainstays have great sympathy.