Key Lies in Labyrinth

Calling on an unnamed source in the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Reuter news agency writes that the reason for Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's refusal to accept the plan, is the fact the he faces opposition within his party, whose internal split he cannot risk. SPS Main Committee member Mihailo Markovic, in defending the decision on the start of war on RTS on 21 February, said that the recognition of Croatian, Bosnian or any other breakaway republic's borders was "out of the question", because political questions had to be resolved first through "peaceful negotiations", repeating that which Yugoslav Foreign Minister Vladislav Jovanovic has been saying of late.

Before Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev arrived in Belgrade, tension grew among Bosnian Serbs - the Republika Srpska Assembly session in Samac on 14 February drafted a bitter letter reminding Milosevic of the slogan: "Serbia will never bow down". according to one version several members of Republic of Srpska deputy Dodig's pro-Milosevic group were present in Karadjordjevo at the same time as Kozyrev, while Republic of Srpska Foreign Minister Aleksandar Buha arrived in Belgrade to "see his family". Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj and Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica keep repeating the words "recognition" and "treachery" in their statements.

The Belgrade-based weekly Telegraf, in an unsigned article, and without disclosing its source, brings the sensational announcement that Milosevic had agreed to recognize Bosnia and Croatia in talks with Kozyrev, in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, FRY's right to succession and a lasting cease-fire. The eight point plan Milosevic put before Kozyrev has been hammered out in the French Embassy and other secret places in Belgrade, said Telegraf. Under this plan everything would be resolved at the Paris summit of all leaders of the former Yugoslav republics, held under the auspices of the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia before UNPROFOR's mandate in Croatia ends. The summit would be attended by Yugoslav President Zoran Lilic "which would be a concession to Milosevic's demand for succession". All the republics would recognize each other, but each would have the right to formulate its reservations on the matter, according to the principle - "until the constitutive nations in the republics reach an agreement on the internal organization, territorial demarcation and other controversial issues," such as Bosnia, i.e. until "an agreement is reached between the Serbs in Krajina and the Croatian Government on the basis of the Z-4 plan".

"Police and monitor" forces under the control of the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia would be deployed with wider competencies to control freight and people than those given to the mission on the Drina River.

UNPROFOR would "partly change its mandate" in Croatia, and name to the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia Monitor Forces. In this way the danger of war breaking out after 31 March would be averted, and "Tudjman's demand for UNPROFOR's departure would be formally observed", said Telegraf.

Former Foreign Minister Ilija Djukic told VREME, that there was a certain authenticity to what Telegraf had written, "at least it doesn't sound unrealistic". Djukic believes that we are at a crossroads: "The question on the end of the war has cropped up, and we are certainly coming to the end of a phase." Djukic believes that all the protagonists have plans for ending the war, but it seems that we have no plan for getting out of what is officially termed as - "Serbia is not at war"; at least we don't know if we have it: "President Milosevic is certainly not in an easy position - the situation is practically such that whatever he does, it will be wrong", said Djukic.

Djukic believes that it is still a mystery if "Clinton needs an end of the war or convincing evidence of efforts being made at ending the war" (probably the latter). On Tuesday, 21 February, US Government spokesperson Christine Shelley said that the possibility of Belgrade recognizing Bosnia and Croatia was not a "closed topic". Without going into details Shelley said that the US Government was in contact with President Milosevic, and that there was a difference between his public and private statements. Different public and private views suggest, said Shelley, that he is looking for a formula with which to lift sanctions. Before announcing that Contact Group representatives would visit Belgrade this week to talk with Milosevic, a US official said that the total and unconditional lifting of sanctions before Belgrade had considered the recognition of Bosnia and Croatia, was unacceptable to the US.