The Final Victory

Lately I have often read and heard it said that nothing can be achieved without a "final victory". I don't believe I have to say what I think of this goal. I wish to point out as simply as possible what can be achieved at all.

At this moment Serbia has a 10 billion dollar annual GNP. This means that it has a GNP of 1,000 US dollars per capita. There are claims that another 50% of this social product is created on the black market. This gives us a total of 15 billion dollars and 1,500 dollars annually per capita. For reasons of comparison, Slovenia produces a total of nearly 20 billion dollars (officially and the black market); this adds up to 10,000 dollars per capita. Croatia produces around 18 billion dollars (or 4,000 dollars per capita). Macedonia, probably, around 2.5 billion dollars (let's say about 1,250 dollars per capita). Montenegro has probably around one billion dollars annually. I don't know about Bosnia-Herzegovina, but let's say that in one way or another, 2.5 billion US dollars are produced there. If this is the case, then Serbia at this moment contributes to production in the former Yugoslavia with less than 25%; Slovenia contributes more than a third, Croatia less than a third, but together they account for two-thirds. Here I put aside debts, loss of markets, state expenditure (especially the army) and the emigration of the population. All in all, Serbia is in a much worse situation than Slovenia and Croatia.

Therefore, we can conclude one thing immediately: from the economic point of view, Serbia can longer be an integrative factor of Yugoslavia (the former one). This wasn't the situation four years ago: Serbia produced 40% of the social product in Yugoslavia then. In fact, at the time, not just Yugoslavia, but every single one of its republics produced more than they do today (Slovenia about 10% more than today, Croatia nearly 40% more). Serbia's economy was then nearly twice as big as Slovenia's, but today it is smaller by at least a fourth. Serbia's economy used to be bigger than Croatia's by 50%, today it is smaller by a fifth. What's more, the GNP in Serbia was double that of the one in Macedonia, while today it is practically the same (even though Macedonia suffered economically much more than Slovenia and Croatia).

In fact, the situation is much worse. Serbia suffered a drop in production and the standard of living. It is backward now. The participation of agriculture in production has increased, and the industry is old fashioned. There is no point in talking of cities, roads, education, health services and other things. This means that Serbia will lag behind Slovenia and Croatia even when the present drop in production stops and becomes stable. Every year Slovenia invests more, and this ensures that it comes closer to Europe's developed countries. For the past year and half there is no inflation in Croatia and it should start developing economically. The next phase for both these countries is their integration into the European community. Therefore, it isn't just a matter of what has been lost, but that it will take a very long time to catch up.

To repeat, as far as Serbia is concerned, Yugoslavia is unattainable. How do things stand with Greater Serbia? From the economic point of view, this is another unattainable goal. In fact, from the economic point of view, it is becoming controversial if the integration of Serbia such as it is, is at all possible. Unfortunately, I don't have any data on regional development and trade, but even without them I think I can point out the obvious. Many parts of Serbia are either economically backward to such an extent that their integration would require means which Serbia does not have, or they are linking up with economies outside Serbia's borders through trade. Even if Serbia doesn't continue to lag behind, there are no comparative advantages which would favor the integration of its economy. For example, Hungary's economy, officially and with the black market adds up to 70 billion dollars. This is much more than the whole of the former Yugoslavia produces and nearly five times more than Serbia's production (even though the population figure is much the same). Romania's economy is similar in size to Hungary's, while Bulgaria's economy is twice as big as Serbia's. The economies of the countries Serbia borders on (with the exception of Macedonia and Albania) are linked in one way or another to the European community. Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have already signed contracts on associate membership. With time, the process of integration can only strengthen, so that the anachronism of Serbia's position will grow.

This is even more true of the so-called Serbian lands outside Serbia. Integration with Montenegro isn't such a problem. But there are no means or any economic foundation for an integration with the Serb parts in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia. Let's leave everything else aside, and just take a look at our foreign debt. Serbia alone owes more than half its annual GNP. This she cannot pay. What are the chances of taking over part of Croatia's and Bosnia-Herzegovina's debts, something that a Greater Serbia would not be able to avoid? This would be possible only with the whole-hearted and generous support of the international financial community. We can expect this to happen only after the final victory over Capitalism.

In fact, a Greater Serbia is a great expense just in maintaining security on its territory. If it is necessary to round off the Serbian economic area, this will require even greater means (without taking into consideration the already mentioned debts). Serbia does not have this kind of money.

Therefore, in only four years, a policy which urged a final victory has reduced Serbia, which was Yugoslavia's integrative element and enjoyed an exceptionally favorable position with regard to the European community, to a country which cannot ensure its economic survival and definitely cannot integrate those parts which depend on it politically and otherwise. And that's the whole story.