Explosive Silence

The Serbian state TV news reported the Croatian army incursion into Western Slavonia only after lengthy reports on May 1 celebrations at home and abroad.

The Yugoslav government and Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) issued a statement condemning the Croatian action but that did not change the impression that the whole thing met with suppression in the Serbian state media.

When the Croatian army completed its venture on May 2, the FRY's military and state leaders condemned the Croatian aggression against the Republic of Serb Krajina (RSK) as "a criminal act against the civilian population and gross attacks on efforts to establish peace in the region"; the strongest formulation in the past year.

The statement was issued after a meeting between FRY president Zoran Lilic, Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic, Montenegrin president Momir Bulatovic, federal prime minister Radoje Kontic, federal foreign minister Vladislav Jovanovic, defence minister Pavle Bulatovic and army chief of staff general Momcilo Perisic.

The reaction was given significance in terms of politics, state and military. It was more sharply worded than before but it was balanced since it also condemned the bombing of cities and suffering inflicted on the civilian population and because it stressed that the FRY believes that there is no military solution to the crisis in former Yugoslavia and that a lasting and just solution can only be achieved through the peace process.

Belgrade's stand could be characterized as angry moderation. Milosevic seems to have been prepared for that moderation.

State department spokesman Nicholas Barnes said later that US Contact Group member Bob Frazier asked Milosevic (in a phone conversation) to "advise the Krajina Serbs to exercise moderation" and there are indications that there were other talks earlier. The rumor is that the American had "good, fruitful talks" with Milosevic about the old US proposal; an agreement under which Belgrade would recognize Bosnia-Herzegovina in exchange for a limited lifting of the sanctions. Tudjman opened the Belgrade-Zagreb highway with tanks but he also extended it.

In the wave of escalation and cooling down it seemed a moment had come when Milosevic would pay tribute; he remained calm although Tudjman's troops entered Jasenovac (the site of a WWII Ustashi death camp) at the moment when the victory over fascism is being commemorated.

The Holy Synod of the Serbian Orthodox Church met on May 2 and called for protection of the Jasenovac area "one of the worst sites of suffering in the W.W.II and the greatest Serbian Orthodox city of the dead, innocently killed during the Independent State of Croatia's rule of terror". The Synod said that "because of the situation in Western Slavonia caused by the Croatian army aggression on Okucani, Jasenovac and other places, Patriarch Pavle's trip to Germany was postponed". The Patriarch was due to perform a service for the victims of fascism in Osnabruck and Dachau. A day later, a statement said the Patriarch intends to go to Jasenovac on May 9 to perform a service for the victims of that death camp.

Serbian Democratic Party (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica said the incursion into Jasenovac while the world is commemorating the victory over fascism is proof that "Croatia has not done away with fascism". He said the Croatian aggression on the RSK will sober the Serbs in the Krajina and Bosnia.

Milosevic's fiercest opponent, Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj said he was setting up a war staff and called volunteers to go to Slavonia but this time without state support the call was not very efficient.

The Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) condemned "the unprovoked armed aggression by Croatia against the RSK and against UN protected territories which could turn into the detonator of a new war, more fierce and deadly than the conflict which ended in January 1992". The SPO said Croatia was an "upsetting factor" in the peace process and appealed to the RSK to refrain from "extreme steps" which could cause a further escalation. SPO secretary general Vojislav Vukcevic called the Krajina Serbs to refrain from hasty moves and added that the present events are "a test of national maturity and wisdom and a test of the UN". He added that plans to draw Serbia and Montenegro into the conflict are wrong and that it is nationally irresponsible to call for mobilization and war. He also condemned the warmongers.

The bombing of Zagreb that RSK president Milan Martic said was a threat to deter Croatia from more attacks was condemned by virtually every party in Belgrade which supported peace over the past year. Seselj approved of the bombing adding that more destructive Luna rockets should have been fired at Zagreb instead of the Orkan rockets that were used.

Democratic party (DS) leader Zoran Djindjic said "Croatia is wrong if it thinks the war will be waged in one direction only, Zagreb to Knin. There is a great danger of the war spreading and Dubrovnik and Zagreb and other cities will not be spared in that case," he said on May 2. He added that Croatia's attack is "a calculated blow to the peace process which Tudjman did whenever it was possible to kill a peaceful solution".

The FRY rulers called for an end to hostilities and a continued peace process but did not satanize the UN troops on the ground which is a novelty. The FRY state and army leaders even said they support the efforts of the UN secretary general's special envoy Yasushi Akashi to urgently renew the March 29, 1994 cease-fire accord and get the forces back to their original positions.

RSK prime minister Borislav Mikelic spoke by phone on Belgrade TV's main evening news to report the agreement on withdrawing forces to original positions. After that came reports that the Krajina leaders had been invited to Geneva, that Lord Owen praised the moderate statement by president Milosevic and that the implementation of an agreement on evacuating Serbs from Pakrac was due to start.

Ranko Petkovic, editor in chief of International Politics magazine said last week that Martic's advisor Slobodan Jarcevic told him that the Krajina Serbs have a minimal plan: "We'll all come to Serbia!"

The sharp wording has come back to Belgrade's official statements as a sign that Milosevic's maneuvering space has been reduced in Serbia following Tudjman's intervention in Slavonia and the time for negotiating mutual recognition has been extended.