Is There A New American Plan?

Bearing in mind that professor Denic is a regular lecturer and adviser at the State Department and that he is affiliated to the circles which shape American foreign policy, his statement intrigued domestic officials as well as foreign diplomats in Yugoslavia.

However, Mr. Denic explicitly stated that he does not speak on behalf of the official agents, but he also said that such a proposal seems reasonable "to the most important agents in American foreign policy".

The alleged American new plan concerns the future post-Yugoslav framework: Serbia and Montenegro could remain within the union which would be recognized by the international community as the lawful successor to Yugoslavia. As a precondition for that such "Yugoslavia" would have to recognize the independence of the remaining four republics - within their present borders, which could be changed only by peaceful means and through negotiations. Bosnia and Herzegovina would, in the meantime, be subjected to cantonization and would act as a "bridge", since its borders would remain open to both sides.

Professor Denic points out that the plan would present "the traditional American position" based on the belief that all states originating from former Yugoslavia need "the kind of relationship that would allow their complementary economies to function normally and that would not destroy the communication system between people who used to live in one state".

Mr. Denic thinks that the main obstacle to the realization of the plan lies in the fact that "Yugoslav political agents are increasingly counting on the disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina". Apart from that, "the official Croatia is showing great interest in regaining the territories in Bosnia which it formally controlled (in 1931)". Professor adds that such a thing is inconceivable, since Moslems today present an important political factor. He also reminded the public that the Yugoslav politician have considerably less scope for manoeuvre, since the political influence of Yugoslavia in international terms has diminished after the cold war and since "Serbian leaders and their colleagues in other republics have exhausted the patience of the West".

After the initial reactions, it turned out that the alleged plan is not entirely new. A month ago, VREME indicated that the UN general secretary's personal envoy Cyrus Vance may have, during his last stay in Belgrade, presented a plan according to which the six Yugoslav republics would in the future be modelled on an extremely complicated formula: Serbia and Montenegro would form a federation which would be in confederation with Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and these four republics would form some kind of union with Slovenia and Croatia. The alleged new American plan, however, contains two new elements: firstly, the federation of Serbia and Montenegro would be recognized as the successor of Yugoslavia, and secondly, Bosnia and Herzegovina would be divided up into cantons.

VREME has contacted several foreign diplomats in Belgrade in order to find out a little bit more about the plan. At the American embassy we were told that they know nothing about it. There may have more information after ambassador Zimmermann, who left for Washington last Thursday, is back in Belgrade. Other foreign representatives we contacted - around a dozen of them - were not familiar with it either, although some of them spoke with Warren Zimmermann after he returned from Slovenia last week.

"There is no need to comment on that idea", said the Greek representative. His reaction may be related to the likely recognition of Macedonia. "There is not much substance in that proposal, but as long as it refers to peaceful solution it is a good thing", said the German diplomat. "Everything is possible", said somewhat ominously the Portuguese representative. The Italian pointed out that "there is no such thing as an American plan yet", but he wished to stress that at this moment it is of paramount importance that the "blue helmets" arrive and that they should be posted here "for more that six months and for less than twenty years".

In the talks with the diplomatic representatives of the European Community we could not find out anything concerning this matter, but we did learn that there have been preparations for another visit of Lord Carrington to Yugoslavia. The British Lord, who is chairing a somewhat forgotten peace conference on Yugoslavia, is due to come to Belgrade as early as next week. The Conference should, according to the latest information, continue its work on February 15 in work groups.

Two other things have, during the last week, caught the attention of the Belgrade diplomatic corps: the visit of several YU-politician to the States (Jovic /president of the Serbian ruling party/, Gregoric /Croatian prime minister/, Gligorov /Macedonian president/, Draskovic /leader of the strongest opposition party in Serbia/) and the visit of the UN under-secretary Marrack Goulding to Yugoslavia. Although all our politician have, of course, stated that they were very pleased with the talks (with Laurence Eagleburger, for instance), a foreign diplomat indicated that these contacts were far from pleasant. Among other things, the Yu-politicians were clearly told that - regardless of whether their respective republics will be recognized - they should not count on any kind of help from the West, especially not on the financial support.

As far as the arrival of the "blue helmets" is concerned, another foreign diplomat told us, after his talks with Mr. Goulding, that there is no reason for optimism. According to that source, Mr. Goulding met with a firm refusal by Milan Babic (president of the Serbian Republic of Krajina) in Knin and was gravely disappointed by Tudjman's attitude. Marrack Goulding did not try to hide his pessimism during his short stay in Vienna on his way back to New York, where he said that the arrival of the international peace-keeping forces is a matter of months rather than weeks.

It is possible that these days it will be made public whether Washington really has or is preparing a plan for the solution of the Yugoslav crisis. It is also possible that, finally, the rumours that the American aircraft carrier "America" is on the point of reaching the Adriatic will be confirmed or denied. For the time being, it is certain that the protracted arrival of the "blue helmets" does not contribute to the stabilization of the cease-fire, which is oddly enough being respected ever since January 3.