New Offers

In May and June last year, when the Contact group defined its plan for Bosnia-Herzegovina in Geneva, there was mention of the Bosnian Serb entity which would form a Bosnia-Herzegovina union with the Moslem-Croat federation. Having chosen that formulation, US diplomats who defined plans and details for territorial division wanted to show at least a semblance of hiding the truth: the division of Bosnia-Herzegovina. In doing that their basic premise was the integrity of the newly created states and unwillingness to recognize conquests of war. That was especially true of the Americans and their policy towards the conflict in the former Yugoslavia.

A year ago the recognition of Sarajevo (later Zagreb was added at Germany's insisting) by Belgrade was not of primary importance to implement the Contact group's plan. Only once the Bosnian Serb leaders rejected the plan and Milosevic accepted it, did the West see recognition of Bosnia-Herzegovina as a separate state as a means to force Pale into submission through Belgrade.

The contradictions in the whole thing came down to the fact that the offer to the Serbian president so far has been too small for him to abandon his allies across the Drina. The US opposition to the lifting of the sanctions that Russia is urging and France and Britain do not oppose was always explained with the assessment that agreement would never again be reached in the Security Council to reimpose the sanctions.

The more the Belgrade-Pale rift widens and the war in Bosnia gains momentum while Tudjman is lurking in the wings, the lower Milosevic's chances are of forcing Karadzic and Krajisnik into submission, the West believes. Suddenly, general Mladic has become a moderate in the American press and there is much speculation of Milosevic's fears that Karadzic could oust him.

In that context, British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd said western strategy is still based on nurturing the rift until Milosevic delivers on Bosnian Serb readiness to accept the Contact Group's plan.

Milosevic, once gladly called the Butcher of the Balkans by the US press is growing stronger as a valued western ally in his new role as peacemaker. His rating has grown even more since he cooly accepted the fall of Western Slavonia whose leaders often said FR Yugoslavia guaranteed the Vance plan.

The bargaining is still on with the man who promised to unite all Serbs in a single state. The bag of silver on offer is still too small.

Diplomatic sources in the West now avoid confirming or denying the existence of American offers to make Milosevic's "defection" more tempting. They do say that the May 12 Contact Group experts' meeting did voice new ideas for the foreign ministers to detail.

France and Great Britain (the two largest troop contributors to UNPROFOR) drew back on their threats of withdrawal. Instead, they agreed to the new orders for UNPROFOR which most likely includes cutting troops' numbers and concentrating them on less territory.

At the same time, NATO command has sent clear signals that they would prefer the blue berets to stay in the former Yugoslavia and avoid the possibility of getting the "greatest military organization in the world" bogged down in the Balkans.

To make things clear to the American public, an unnamed NATO official told Reuter news agency that at least half of the 40-50,000 troops needed to secure the UN withdrawal would be Americans. They could get killed or wounded which runs counter to the stands of the Democrat administration and Republican opposition in Washington who don't want to see a single US serviceman in the peace force in former Yugoslavia.

If Washington does strike a deal with Belgrade on recognizing Bosnia-Herzegovina, but not it's current authorities, their protégé Alija Izetbegovic would be left out in the cold and Milosevic would abandon the Pale leaders. Even rumors of that possibility are weakening the Sarajevo government whose response are risky military operations from Sarajevo itself.

And while the political games are underway, informed sources in Washington said the number of transfers of military and intelligence personnel from the special forces command in Fort Brag to bases in Germany is growing. At the same time, consultants in Washington are playing video war games with Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia.