Avalanche has started

If I may judge by myself, I would say that soon will come the time when we will all start occupying ourselves with something different. Anything, maybe even our own business, but something different from making history.

Most people have dispersed; deserted the public squares; few are prepared to cheer or chant slogans. There is nothing important to be said; nothing to be missed; nothing to be late for. Whatever you once stood for, whoever you supported, you now feel a little disappointed and tired. You do not feel like either cursing or praising anybody. I am sure that on Saturday you will rather sit in the shade, sipping your cappuccino than go to watch the third attempt by the Radical Party to topple of the regime with noise.

Some people say that Seselj knows what he is doing, which is something that could also be said for Jack the Ripper. But, people here appreciate operational competence and planning ability, probably because they are rare in this country of amateurism and improvisation. However, it is those who, probably because of some kind of squeamishness, ignore Seselj's monstrous statements such as "hundred Muslims for one Serb" , who are doing him the greatest favor. Such verbal monstrosities, for which he ought to pay the highest price, thus become completely free, especially when they are uttered daily.

Besides that, it appears that here one enjoys a kind of moral immunity while in opposition, even if only since recently, and especially while in prison, even if only for a couple of months. The fact that Seselj gets some kind of satisfaction from being a public spook only illustrates the full perversity of this society, regime and politics. He is a phenomenon that ought to be dealt with primarily by the media, and all those who shape the public opinion. But, disasters such as Seselj can not be prevented by those who would do so for the sake of some other disaster, because such people can not be trusted; and the few who are independent, free and responsible are not certain why, with what right or in the name of what they ought to crucify Seselj. Those who would benefit from such an action would be either Milosevic, or his wifw through the JUL (The Yugoslav Left), and devil only knows which of the two is worse or what the final outcome would be.

Values are therefore in a total mess with nobody being prepared to make public judgments or insist on a code of conduct or civility. If everything is treated as equally good and nice, than evil has surpassed the highest obstacle. It has become invisible and unrecognizable. It could be that this is a global problem, but since we are concerned only with tidying our own back garden, the one thing left to do is to make the final balance-sheet of the Seselj affair.

First of all, it appears that the fascist rhetoric is legitimate, or at least that the society is not adequately protected from it. The second evil follows from this one. By arresting the Radicals, Milosevic compromises the judiciary and the legislature, and gives Seselj's fascism dignity of the victim which partially rehabilitates him. He looks better in prison than outside anyway, and when you see the wrong regime arresting the wrong opposition, the only thing left is to give everything up.

As you have probably figured yourselves, we live under a regime that is neither communist or post-communist, nationalist, or post-nationalist. Again we are between the East and the West; there is a little bit of freedom and a little bit of tyranny, a little justice as well as anarchy. We could start off from here in any direction: forward or backward, left or right, providing that we move at all, and it seems to me that we will not. Too many bad experiences have accumulated. When they are all summed up it follows that the safest option is not to move and not to change anything. All options are sort of half open, and anyway, our legs are hobbled. Observed from within Serbia, it appears that around us everybody is heading somewhere and trying things out. No one can deny that Milosevic took a long run before his leap and undertook something big, but Serbia nonetheless failed to move an inch from where it was, besides going to the dogs. Even the war in Bosnia, big as it is, can not significantly change anything in the long run. Over there scenery is being set up for new battles, but however you look at it, it smacks of a Serb defeat. The extent of such a defeat is a more important question, but in a wider historical context, maybe the most important is the question about what exactly would constitute a Serbian defeat or victory. Potential answers to the latter question are numerous, and depend on the understanding of the concept of national interest and identity, on the spatial and temporal orientation, on the model of civilization towards which one aspires... In any case, for Karadzic's Serbs at least, political defeat is complete, and the military one can not be excluded. Political defeat has been agreed at the very start, in the hope that it will be minimized by a military victory. On the Muslim, or Bosnian side, the situation was exactly opposite. Izetbegovic spent the last three years spending his political capital and increasing his military might, while Karadzic spent his time wasting both.

After taking the hostages, politically, he dropped to zero, and generally his position is the worst ever, and in decline, but in that sense no one is ready yet to face the reality. Either the leaders or the people. Or neither one or the other. In situations such as this, it is usually the one who has to foot the bill who sobers up first, and in this case it is the people. According to numerous accounts, for a long time now the Bosnian Serbs, as well as the Serbs from Serbia, have been sick of everything, which is a feeling more difficult to express in war than in peace. But there are ways. I would not be surprised if soon, in Pale, one group of representatives of the people persuades the other that the people don't want them any more.

At the moment, a medium defeat for the Serbs in Bosnia would suit everybody from Belgrade, to Zagreb, Washington, Brussels, and Moscow, a defeat which would be sufficient to overcome the distance between the Kingdom of Heaven and the Contact group plan. Since everybody is striving towards it, it is most likely to be the final outcome. From a pedagogical standpoint such an outcome would be the best, because something has to be learnt without paying too high a price, because otherwise, in fifty or so years, someone might want to settle the account. Such dosing, is of course unusual in war and maybe we ought to make sure that a medium defeat does not turn out to be a total catastrophe. Maybe that is the toughest part of Milosevic's negotiations with Frasure: How to start an avalanche, and then stop it?

As far as the theory about historical cycles in the Balkans is concerned, cycles marked by half a century of dosing followed by a quick spurt of fury, if it is true, the explanation could be generational. It follows that the wars are fought by the first post-war generation when it reaches its peak. It consists of people who do not remember the previous war, but who grew up in the initial chaos, confusion and wild freedom, with stories about the war which sounded like the nicest fairy-tales.

The advice is that you immediately look at what your male children get up to, what they read, what games they play. Start thinking of them as the future Karadzics, Mladics, Seseljs; see how you like that idea and decide what you must do.

If you are one of the conscripts of Matric's army currently visiting your brothers in Serbia, start packing, and when you see the released hostages cross over to this free territory make sure you wave to them from your coach.