Etat Du Siege

Once things get going the momentum has to be maintained. Using that simple logic of war and the mess created by the Karadzic hostages, the Bosnia-Herzegovina authorities and army stepped up their pressure along the entire 1,500 kilometer front lines.

Vlasic, Bihac, Doboj, Ozren, Brcko, Majevica, Gorazde, Treskavica, Igman and Debelo Brdo above Sarajevo are the sites of clashes between the BiH army and Bosnian Serb Army (BSA).

On Wednesday they clashed with the BSA on Mt. Sator, bombed Glamoc and, for the first time since the war started, shelled Bijeljina.

The second element of the escalation is the careful and slow drawing of the Croat Defence Force (HVO and Croatian regular army into the conflicts: the offensive on Mt. Dinara and advances to the north towards Bosansko Grahovo and, in the long-term, Bihac, show that the Croats are taking part in the war more seriously than before (not including the Moslem-Croat clashes in 1993).

Last week was marked by the concentration of BiH army troops at Visoko, Breza and Hadzici. Estimates placed the number of those troops at 30,000 which could be an exaggeration; assumptions and speculation spoke of an offensive to break the blockade of Sarajevo and open the road to Ilijas, Breza and Visoko (even Zenica and Tuzla) to the north, and Hadzici to the west and further on towards Tarcin and the Neretva valley.

That offensive has been announced several times recently: Bosnian presidency President Alija Izetbegovic told Radio Sarajevo on May 24 that "for now we are defending ourselves but one day we will remove them from around our necks" (meaning Karadzic's forces). Asked when the siege of Sarajevo will be lifted he said: "Sometime between May 25 and November 25 this year. I can say only that much".

The BiH's Sarajevo corps commander, general Vahid Karavelic promised to break the blockade by the end of the year.

After 37 months of siege, shelling, snipers, shortages of electricity and food, Sarajevo has become the symbol of the Bosnia war to both sides: the Bosnians hold it and Karadzic wants it desperately.

The stories that "the Serbs can walk into Sarajevo whenever they want to" were denied by general Dragomir Milosevic, commander of the BSA Sarajevo-Romanija Corps on January 25.

Karadzic and Mladic started raising tension two months ago by closing the air lift to Sarajevo and their constant attacks on the Igman road, the only supply route to the city. The city has been short of food, water, electricity and gas for a month and a state of general alert was declared on Thursday. The situation has provided the first mission for the newly created UN Rapid Reaction Force (RRF): reopen the Igman road by force if need be.

The Bosnian government understands there's no use in waiting for the great powers and UN to come up with some new idea on unblocking Sarajevo. Prime minister Silajdzic warned the international community on several occasions to either lift the blockade or they'll do it themselves. Izetbegovic said he "sees no sense in the UN forces remaining in Bosnia any longer" if the situation continues. Obviously this is a case of deft political and military pressure: politically, the great powers are being pressured to profit from the swing in mood after the hostage taking; militarily, Karadzic is being pressured into another hasty step.

Tactically, the current concentration of troops and initial moves are no more than pure political maneuvers. The BiH army has three strongholds in the Sarajevo area: Sarajevo itself with 35,000 troops (following the latest reinforcements: last summer there were 20,000 under arms and at least as many unarmed; last Thursday a VREME source in Sarajevo spoke of a constant inflow of weapons and troops); the Visoko and Breza area with at least two BiH army Corps (with as many troops as they could spare without endangering the Majevica-Tuzla front; not more than 5,000). In every estimate, bear in mind that the BiH army is very mobile and that all this is just testing the enemy: if some sector is endangered they'll regroup; the other variable factor is the HVO which faces a highly delicate situation in the Kiseljak and Kresevo areas since they finally have to pick a side.

Despite their Thursday morning artillery attacks on Ilijas, Ilidza and Hadzici, the BiH army did not advance their lines that day. The mood in Pale on Wednesday night was relatively carefree with Sonja Karadzic's coming wedding being celebrated: observers there said the Bosnian Serb leaders did not really seem to be aware of the gravity of the situation. Karadzic made several optimistic statements on Thursday ("we're not worried, this is their final attempt"; but the attempts seem very serious). Knowing what happened before, a fierce retaliatory bombardment of Sarajevo cannot be excluded. The question is whether Karadzic will profit from it or suffer even more damage.

On Thursday evening the BiH army started three diversionary operations: at Ilijas, Hadzici and towards Ilidza. Which one of them will turn into a full-scale attack isn't clear yet. That decision will probably be taken at the last moment depending on the BSA reactions. The BiH army is counting on confusing Mladic's men and spreading them thin, endangering the Pale-Lukavica road. That is something like a game of chess: bringing Mladic into a position where he has to choose what he prefers to lose.

All that took the UN and great powers by surprise: UNPROFOR didn't get the time to regroup, the RRF haven't all arrived in Bosnia and key political decisions haven't been taken.

UN spokesmen warned that this is the greatest BiH troop concentration since the start of the war. Perhaps that is the reason why there might not be a BiH offensive around Sarajevo; some sources believe that was never the intention; others feel the Bosnians have nothing to lose and will profit from the moment to take what they can. The fact is that the initiative is all theirs now: the BiH army is calling the shots but taking care not to slip up and not crossing the point of no return.

The HVO and Croatian regulars are advancing up Sator mountain, endangering Bosansko Grahovo and cautious attacks are being launched from Sarajevo towards Vogosce (Ilijas): on Thursday afternoon there was fighting around Hadzici and Hrasnica.

The great powers are in a panic and warnings of a catastrophe if attempts are made to break through the blockade are coming from Washington and Pale. Sarajevo seems not to be paying attention: if the Bosnians learned something after three years of war it's that things are solved on the ground, through fighting.