Osijek: Days of Peace

The Days of Culture of Peace were organized by the Center for Peace, Non-Violence and Human Rights in Osijek in cooperation with the Local Democracy embassy of the Council of Europe and the Pleter Christian Initiative for Promoting Peaceful and Religious Dialogue.

The Center's activists who prepared the manifestation gained the impression that conditions have improved compared to the past two years. They were encouraged by the many people who were ready to contribute. This time, the Center was given the use of the local community wedding hall but the chief councilor, although he was included in the program, wasn't there. Mayor Zlatko Kramaric said the "demonstration of non-violent communication cannot be imposed but has to be practiced which we are doing now." There was support in the form of representatives of the union of Croatian refugees who took part in all programs. All that helped rid the Center of the label of national traitor but the population did not take part in the programs.

There was little advertising and a storm hit the only big public event: the sale of peace cakes baked by refugee women living in Osijek.

Peace week looked like a festival: many tribunals and round table debates, workshops, art events happened simultaneously with over 100 guests, representatives of humanitarian and religious organizations from Croatia, Europe, Canada, the Council of Europe and UNHCR. The presence of 10 or so guests from Yugoslavia would have been only symbolic if the Croatian Refugee Union hadn't specifically invited peace groups from Sombor, Backa Palanka, Novi Sad, Belgrade and the FRY Refugee Union with specific activities in mind. They desperately want to find Serbs who are willing to come back to Croatia.

The Pakrac region is considered the only area where refugees can return and the Croatian Anti-War Campaign is continuing its work on renewing trust in Western Slavonija, only in one street for the moment where both Serbs and Croats live. Serbs are still leaving the area and some estimates say there are only 800 of them left from the original 16,000.

Yugoslavia: Politics and the Economy

Last week Serbia's parliament began debating a government proposal to change the law on pensions and social security for the handicapped, but right from the start it wasn't clear what the government wants to do with the changes. The second installment of May pensions was paid on the same day (20 days late) while a day earlier, the government said "an increase in pensions can only come from real sources of income" and added that "that relates to the proposed increase in pensions and the added payments for the April 1994-May 1995 period proposed in the law".

In other words, pensioners could get greater rights (pensions) but payments would come only when "real sources" allow. The Serbian, federal and Montenegrin government do not include a possible redefining of budget and public expenses in their interpretation of those sources, mainly because there are other more important budget users.

On the other hand, the number of pensioners (voters) can't be disregarded and the Belgrade Institute of Economic Sciences feels the Serbian government found a solution in raising duties for pensions from 22% to 25% of net incomes.

The economic and financial authorities managed to plug the two biggest holes without a dramatic fall of the Dinar in black market exchange rates but at the expense of internal clashes over principles and the interests of various groups. The German Mark costs 2.5 Dinars on the streets and is valued at three dinars in financial transactions.

But that has only solved the problems of the two biggest seasonal dangers which could cause galloping inflation (over 15% a month) and even hyperinflation (over 50% a month). The main threat is still there. That danger, alongside outside factors, is the state-controlled and monopolized Serbian economy; an inefficient economy which can achieve a semblance of success only through higher prices. Current economic trends and the clashes within the government show that inflation could break through the current 5% monthly average at any time. Institute experts said the easing of monetary controls could cause inflation of over 400% this year. A poll by the Belgrade Economy Institute showed that economists expect inflation. The institute warned the authorities that it would be "dangerous to stimulate production without the emission of money since that would just generate inflation".

Fears of a return of inflation are based on the fact that the economy is still generally assessed to be in a recession. Economists said they expect the temporary recovery of the economy to slow down in terms of production later this year and the overall results for the first nine months of the year will equal last year's entire production. The authorities promised growth and it's uncertain how long and who will keep strict control of the money mints.

Certainly, the economy lacks money. University professor Jovan Rankovic said the main reason the economy is non-liquid is because of last year's doctored results. The authorities doctored last year's results and reduced the actual losses of 14 billion Dinars to just 3.6 billion.

By remaining within the confines of the current money mass, he said, the economy will be led to a collapse within months. By relaxing monetary controls hyperinflation will return, he said.

Serbia: Chaotic Parities

The mess with the purchase price of wheat (0.28 Dinars a kilogram) is getting increasingly complicated by the day. The latest contribution came from Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic during his visit to the wheat fields near Pancevo. He noted that wheat prices stood at 0.35 Dinars in goods exchanges. He was probably quoting government figures in the goods exchange regulations. If he had taken last year's parity of seven kilos of wheat per liter of fuel he might have said the cost rose to 0.47 Dinars since black market fuel prices stood at 3.3 Dinars a liter.

Marjanovic would have gotten different figures if he had included the wheat-tractor cost ratio. Last year wheat purchase prices stood at 0.18 Dinars a kilo and tractor prices averaged 9,000 Dinars. This year wheat is bought for 0.28 Dinars from farmers and tractors cost an average 28,000 Dinars bringing the realistic price of wheat to 0.14 Dinars a kilo. Simply put, last year it took five wagon loads of wheat to buy a tractor, this year it takes 10.

When official exchange rates are unrealistic there is confusion about the real parity of local and world market wheat prices. Novi Sad economist Srdjan Petrovic noted that wheat costs 13 cents a kilo on the world market which, at official rates, stands at 0.18 Dinars a kilo. If you replace that rate with black market rates, the Serbian government would have to approve a price of 0.45 Dinars. In that case Marjanovic would never dare say he is protecting farmers with prices that are higher than international prices. There is one thing that is bad for our farmers on the world market: the supply is expected to stand 100 million tons higher than demand this year.

The wheat price has split the ruling party and farmers institutions. In regard to the SPS, former agriculture minister Nikola Stanic wanted wheat prices to stand at 0.18 Dinars while Nedeljko Sipovac, Agrobanka chief, wanted a price of 0.24 Dinars. On the other hand, the economic chamber and farmers' alliance asked for 0.36 Dinars a kilo. The opposition just said the 0.28 Dinar price was robbery since farmers wanted 0.55 Dinars.

The argument over wheat prices is not harmless since the expected harvest will be valued at an estimated 1.2 billion Dinars (at the 0.28 Dinar price) or 770 million Dinars at last year's prices, or close to two billion at world market prices. At prices the farmers demanded, the wheat harvest would cost 2.4 billion Dinars.