A Natural Disorder

"The states in this region are forming short-term coalitions to realize their aims, which reminds one of the situation which prevailed before the Balkan wars of 1912/1913", remarked Irena Reuter-Hendrichs. She will now probably have to rename her project.

"Germany, the biggest power, has taken care of her interests. Now the lesser powers are collecting the remaining trophies", says dr Predrag Simic, the director of the Institute for International Politics and Economy in Belgrade.

Germany has, in his opinion, repeated what Stalin did in the forties, but in the opposite direction: it made a "buffer-Zone" from the Baltic to the Adriatic along the eastern border of the continent. We are dealing with the "Mitteleurope" here, predominantly German and Catholic.

He thinks that Germany could now be overstretching its political influence, not only because it is not a military superpower, but also because it can not satisfy the needs of its "clients". Thus we could be facing the period of a more quiet German expansion, primarily in the economic sphere, with the consent of his "satellites".

Turkey is, along with Germany, one of the biggest profiteers of post-communism. Owing to the rapid economic growth and the military help of the USA, Turkey is now in the position to fill in the geo- political gaps in the Balkans, in the former Soviet Middle-East republics, in the Middle East, all the way to the Mongolia.

Joining with Europe, which leads through the Balkans is a precondition for Turkey to resist the rule of islamic fundamentalism. "The request of Turkey to become a member of the EC will most probably be rejected. Turkey will need Serbia", says Simic. Aware that Serbia is in the heart of the Balkans, president Turgut Ozal and his men are carefully considering the recognition of Macedonia and of Bosnia and Herzegovina where they have the biggest interest.

Greece, the eternal Turkish rival, could be the biggest loser in this Balkan muddle. It is deeply affected by the fact that the recognition of Macedonia is now only a matter of time. They are concerned because that would benefit the Turkish cessationists in Cyprus. The pressure Greece is exerting on the EC not to recognize Macedonia was only half successful. There are rumours within the diplomatic circles that it was a mistake to have accepted Greece in the EC, since it is too susceptible "to the Balkan nationalist virus".

Greece however has, along with Romania indebted Serbia for great many years since they have been supplying it with oil and thus have enabled it to survive the war in Croatia. Romania is, owing to its conflict with Budapest concerning the Hungarian minority in Transylvania particularly dependent on Serbia, economically and politically.

However, the problems with the minorities in Turkey, Romania and Yugoslavia, make nationalist chauvinism a likely political force in Bulgaria and elsewhere in the Balkans. Simic claims that his Bulgarian colleagues were convincing him that Macedonia is as sensitive an issue for Bulgaria as Kosovo is for Serbia. The only thing left to the political class in Albania is to work on initiating appetites directed towards Kosovo, Western Macedonia and parts of Montenegro, purports Veres. Veres however warns that "no foreign factor will support the Albanian claim on Kosovo". Simic adds that the Albanians from Kosovo do not, at this time have the economic interest in joining with their "underdeveloped brothers". From the military viewpoint, Albania is not, nor can it be a problem for Serbia and the army, and the Albanian leaders in Kosovo are aware that, after their disgrace in Slovenia and Croatia, many military complexes will be cured with the "swift action" in the province.

Veres sensibly comments that "at this point in time it would not be wise for Belgrade and Tirana to get close", but he also added that Albania will, in the long run be greatly affected by the economic split.

Just as Serbia is, owing to geography, keeping a tight reign on Albanian transport, so is Hungary controlling the trade between Serbia and the Western Europe. Veres described the present official Hungarian stand as being marked by "indecision, irresponsible statements, even pretensions which would be hard to resist". Veres however thinks that the relations between Belgrade and Budapest could be warming up after the storm concerning the recognition of Slovenia and Croatia has blown over.

Simic pointed out that the prevailing opinion in Budapest is that the stability of the rest of Yugoslavia would benefit Hungary, especially its minority in Vojvodina.

"Austria will probably play a major role in Slovenia", was all the Austrian officials said. In Vienna, however, especially among the catholics, requests can be heard concerning the "leading role of Austria" in the "Mitelleuropean" association from the Baltic to the Adriatic.

Austria, being in the shadow of its powerful neighbour, will probably have to improve its economic position before it can join the to middle European countries. However, along with such ambitions goes the fear Thomas Klestil, the Foreign Office Secretary voiced. He said to the Vienna newspaper "Prese": "Should Great Serbia be pronounced the successor to Yugoslavia, it would immediately become a party in the State agreement and can, calling upon it, put forth the requests which we would rather solve independently".

Serbia as a protector of Slovenes from Koruska and of Croatians? It is a possibility which certainly excites the imagination of certain politicians in Belgrade and Vienna, but which could also have been the reason why the Slovene foreign minister Dimitrij Rupel was suddenly eager to propose the "diplomatic warming up between Slovenia and Serbia".

The agreement which Osimo secured with Italy would, in case Serbia were to become the legal successor of Yugoslavia, give rise to numerous diplomatic muddles.

Should the tensions rise in the Balkans through mutual border blockades and the breakdown of communications then, according to Irena Reuter-Hendrichs, that region would, from the Western point of view, finally be earmarked as the region of economic instability, which means that the "potential investors would forget about this region altogether".

"The current state of affairs in the Balkans", according to Veres, "could at this point be the natural order of things, since the new system is being created without the interference of the superpowers". The former socialist countries are in a difficult position, since they are confronted with their desire to join the European integration, while they still have a strictly national outlook.

One of the first rules refers to the redrawing of borders in the Balkans which should not be permitted. That would put an end to the tide of requests for "historical justice".

Simic stressed that a South-East European federation should replace the Balkans of today, which would act as a "link" between the EC, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Simic warned that, should the USA and the EC leave the Balkans to its own devices the "lasting fragmentation of the entire region and the return to the politics of force will establish itself with disastrous consequences for Europe, the Mediterranean, the Middle East".

The question remains what the place the successor of Yugoslavia, the Greater Serbia or any other Serbia will be occupying in such a Balkan state.