Pastoral Letters

The President of Serbia was seriously shaken by the horrors of war, and all the losses and human casualties that it brings. He was not aware of them until a few days ago when some Muslims from Srebrenica and Zepa were evacuated on Serbian territory, and probably informed him, personally and directly that in war people kill each other. He understood how disturbing that fact must be when he realized that it even led Muslim soldiers to make a distinction between Serbs and Serbs; and run to Serbia to seek his protection. How desperate must have been those who had made such a move!?

Milosevic immediately sat and wrote letters to Alija Izetbegovic and General Mladic, begging them to make up and kiss. This time he let everyone peep into his correspondence, which is something he seldom allows, that is only when he has something nice to say. However when he does, it usually means that he used up all other means.

Of all those who read these letters, those to whom they were addressed probably felt most stupid. If only things were a bit less serious and they could react quite personally, I think I know what Mladic and Izetbegovic would write back to the biggest humanist of all. As things are, they have nothing to say, since Milosevic addressed them least of all, and everybody else is interpreting the messages hidden in the letters.

Let us first of all forget Izetbegovic since the letter addressed to him is without any meaning or importance other than being bare demagogy and counterpart to the other letter. Milosevic's influence on that party in the conflict is non-existent, and even in the days when he had some, and when he still met Izetbegovic on occasions they spoke quite differently. Milosevic addressed Mladic over Karadzic's head, which is the first important message everyone noticed. This message was addressed to Karadzic himself, as well as other Bosnian Serbs: Milosevic can not be expected to put into practice his appeasement policies through someone so stubborn, infamous and militant, but Mladic of course is something totally different.

Milosevic was the only person so far to notice this fundamental difference between Karadzic and Mladic. No one else is aware of it yet, not even the two candidates for the Hague themselves, so Milosevic may have to go through a lot of trouble explaining his point to Mladic. The General is expected to abandon his military glory, to start hating gunfire and develop an interest in angling, and realize that he got into bad company which he must abandon. So far he has not shown particular interest in such a metamorphosis but Milosevic presumably knows why he expects it from him and what he is prepared to offer in return.

Those of us who care for him remember that, before all this, President of Serbia sent a few more open letters in the direction of Knin and Pale. On those occasions he brought out accusations and gave rigid guidelines in a threatening tone. This time he realized that such tone is far too binding so he opted for appeals and pleas, similar to those used by the Patriarch who can threaten with nothing but God. This is supposed to lead world forces to the belief that he must be left alone and free from new pressures, because this man of God is now only capable of sending pastoral letters across the Drina.

However there are other things which certainly wont escape human malice, which always tends to soil what is clean. First of all the quickness of the letter writer's reflexes. While Srebrenica and Zepa were first besieged and then conquered, while in some distant parts of the world people puked at the site of this apocalypse, there was no mail from Belgrade, either for General Mladic or anybody else. After it was over, and world powers managed, unanimously, to get upset and threaten the Serbs with air strikes; after the offensive by Croatian forces began; after the United States came dangerously close to the decision to lift the arms embargo on the Bosnian Muslims and after, on top of everything, it was decided that Milosevic will get nothing in return for the recognition of Bosnia, he realized that the time was right for deeds pleasing to God. It is almost unbelievable that no one so far noticed how easily fear can ennoble this man.

Milosevic is thus principally opposed to every violence and war in which his side might suffer defeat. He is consistent in the conviction that it is better to win than to lose and to cheat than to be cheated. He is just whenever he has to be just and is honest when it pays to be honest. He will keep every promise that is detrimental to others. He is always merciful and full of and understanding for those bigger and stronger than himself, and does not economize on kind words when pleading for something for himself.

All this is not enough to understand the basic principles of his peace loving policies. I would say that, on the whole, he is satisfied with the development of the Bosnian war in the past three years, as well as with his role in the whole affair which means that it would suit him best if it went on for as long as possible, if no one interfered, if the Bosnian Serbs remained unyielding, and he continued with peace efforts and the game of hide and seek he is playing with international monitors. Ideal conditions for the stability and longevity of his regime are that Serbia is not directly involved in the war but that the threat of such involvement looms over it. This vulture policy is perfectly adapted for war and are threatened by any major change in Bosnia, in whatever direction. In his peacemaking letters, Milosevic informed the enraged international community that the Muslim deserters who defected to Serbia were greeted in a friendly way, as sport rivals. The cost of this is out- weighed by all that can be gained from it. On the other hand he answered in advance to Karadzic and all the others who are calling him or will call him to war with Croatia. He reminded them of the division of labor: you fight, I appease. He thus maintained one constant of his policies: Serbia is not at war. However if the fortunes of war turn totally against the Serbs, he will secretly send sufficient military aid. That is another constant, that war must be maintained in its present state. If Karadzic becomes too arrogant and decides to go for Sarajevo and total victory, Milosevic would try to stop him, he would begin diplomatic initiatives and maybe judge that time had come for him to recognize Bosnia.

The offensive by the Croatian army, presents not only a temptation for Milosevic, but also indicates the beginning of a new totally uncertain phase of the war. The fact that the States and the Security Council have not condemned the intrusion by the Croatian army into Bosnia could be interpreted as a desire to see the Croats inflict a defeat on the Serbs since no one else can or will. However at the same time it presents the abandonment of all principles of international conduct. It appears that Croatia silently received a world mandate and its troops were recognized as international forces as if it were not a party in the conflict and as if its army would only execute some kind of justice and then bring things back to their previous state. If America and Germany really agreed to shut their eyes before Tudjman's intention to seize Krajina by force, they will have to block their noses as well when they realize what the whole thing looks like.

There are people who believe that some secret agreement about the exchange of territories had been reached and that the events in Western Slavonija, Srebrenica and Zepa, the Bihac enclave and Krajina are only its execution. I believe that it is more the case of the abandonment of all plans and the readiness by the international community to, on this occasion, place its principles in brackets and accept a forceful solutions which would lead to a brutal and total separation, first of all between Serbs and Croats. This means that everyone would try to grab as much as possible, while civilian population would be expected and get out of the way and move elsewhere. In this sense the Serbs have already completed their work. Now it is the Croats' turn, while the Muslims would get whatever is left. This of course is means a long lasting war, permanent chaos, violence, anarchy and the terribly senselessness of history. The Contact Group, all peace plans and international negotiators would be forgotten. Bosnia would resemble a plague stricken country. Stench would spread across the neighbouring countries while rage would overflow onto most of the continent.