The President and His Generals

General Ratko Mladic's conflict with the civilian authorities in the Bosnian Serb Republic (RS) has been ongoing since the start of the war. When he was appointed commander of the Bosnian Serb Army (BSA) in 1992, Mladic demanded that all state bodies be put into the service of the war effort. His demand fell on deaf ears and Karadzic had to calm him down several times. The development of the war and political attitudes in the RS over the past three years has just served to create more tension.

Mladic and the other BSA generals, schooled by the former Yugoslav national army (JNA) could not come to terms with the army in wartime being put second to the individual interests of the people in power.

The war with its uncertain outcome kept up the discipline in the BSA but the generals headed by Mladic were getting increasingly unhappy with the sharing out of resources and they made their feelings known both in public and in private.

In an interview this spring, Mladic said something very interesting: "We made an analysis in the general staff and found out that 74%-75% of the total population of Serbs west of the Drina lives in the Banja Luka region. Of that number, 95% were partisans during the last world war and the appearance of Chethniks would cause a rift." That warning was clear: ideological factors had been introduced into the game. Karadzic's loud Chetnik anti-communism began irritating traditionally partisan areas and Mladic understood that (his mother survived an attempt by Chetniks to burn her alive).

So we have three lines of conflict: social (the BSA is second to war profiteers); regional (Pale over Banja Luka) and ideological (partisan-Chetnik). There is a fourth political line: war or peace, Karadzic or Milosevic; that one will be the most important to the final outcome. The key figures along all four lines are Karadzic and Mladic.

Now the question is what is the balance of power?

Karadzic controls Pale, eastern Bosnia and eastern Herzegovina; he also controls the parts of the SDS party who has an interest in supporting him out of fear of Mladic's focus on profiteers; he has his special police force (some 5,000 men) whose loyalty depends on developments; and he has the support of extreme nationalists in Bosnia and FR Yugoslavia.

Mladic has all the BSA generals and most of the command structure behind him. He enjoys Belgrade's unreserved support and we can assume he has other forms of support; police, army, logistics. Territorially, Mladic can count on the Bosnian Krajina, Posavina Corridor, Bijeljina and Zvornik and Han Pijesak where his command is located. As for the generals, several were members of the JNA security department: Zdravko Tolimir (head of the Knin Corps security now BSA chief of security), Dragomir Milosevic (commanded a battalion of military police in Sarajevo now commands the Sarajevo-Romanija Corps), Novica Simic (commanded an MP company now commander of the Eastern Bosnia Corps), Bosko Kelecevic (security chief 5th army group Zagreb now chief of staff of the first Krajina Corps in Banja Luka) and colonel Ljubisa Beara (BSA security officer) and a number of other ranks. Other officers will hardly have the courage to resist Mladic's influence.

So this is a military rebellion against Karadzic personally; the rebellion is headed by Mladic with the support of the Belgrade regime, there's no other name for it. Everyone controls their territory and that was evident on TV as usual; TV Pale did not air the letter of support to Mladic that 18 of his generals signed and TV Banja Luka did. Karadzic imposed measures to explain his stand on TV, using the chaos and tragedy of the refugees that are tying down Mladic and his followers: he threatened to take back the Krajina; said Mladic reacted emotionally; a Pale spokesman tried to explain that the disagreements were behind us but the general did not show up for the BSA high command meeting Karadzic called in Banja Luka on Wednesday.

As soon as the refugee crisis is over, the Karadzic-Mladic clash will erupt; in practical terms that could mean drawing territorial lines by the president and his generals. Will we get two Bosnian Serb Republics like we had two Krajinas ever since the fall of Western Slavonia? Where will the border be; in Bijeljina, Zvornik or Han Pijesak? How long will it last? Who will survive to win? Now, on Thursday night, it's too early to tell.