Three Headed Bosnia

Analysts mostly agree that the offers are a way of sanctioning the carve up of Bosnia based on the results of ethnic cleansing. The removal of the population from Zepa, Srebrenica and Gorazde have been accepted as well as the cleansing of Knin. That is just what the national leaders wanted, especially Slobodan Milosevic and Franjo Tudjman and it is clear why they aren't opposed to the new American ideas. Neither they or other decision makers in the world aren't worried about Gorazde becoming the symbol of the internationally recognized policy of ethnic cleansing because everything else happened in the storm of war and the trade of territories under the peace plan will be an integral part of the solution - if it comes.

Let's look at the Frankenstein state that would be the result with its federal, confederal and other links growing out of what was once Bosnia-Herzegovina. Theoretically, there now exists an internationally recognized state of Bosnia-Herzegovina within the borders of the former Yugoslav republic of the same name. Within it, there exists a Moslem-Croat federation which never functioned. That federation should (under the peace plan) establish confederal links with Tudjman's republic of Croatia. The Moslem mini-state that has been the subject of so many statements would be a federal unit in the state which will remain unitary and internationally recognized but in which the Moslems will actually become tenants of Croatia, probably doomed to assimilation.

For the first time (although that has been admitted only in private) confederal links with Yugoslavia are being offered to Serb territories (which do not have any officially recognized status). Karadzic's stand so far has been that he wants an independent state which can then decide whether to join anyone and who but Karadzic's opinion isn't taken into account any longer.

On the Yugoslav side, the logical conclusion is that Milosevic is wondering what to do with the offer, if it is serious, because why would he want 1,500 kilometers of border that is hard to defend to say nothing of everything inside those borders.

What would Yugoslavia become with that new province is a meaningless question.

One of the dilemmas which appears frequently is whether Tudjman and Milosevic have really agreed to carve up Bosnia at the expense of the Moslems or whether they would never dream of doing just that. Lord Carrington, one of the first of the growing number of mediators, told Reuter news agency that both Milosevic and Tudjman (independently of each other) told him they had agreed to carve up Bosnia.

Vladislav Jovanovic recently said that deal was never reached and that two years ago the "FRY rejected a deal between the Bosnian Croats and Serbs without the Moslems", but Jovanovic is not always well informed not even while he was still foreign minister.

Considering who these people are it's possible that they agreed just that in Karadjordjevo long ago but didn't agree details. The reasoning probably ran along the lines of - whoever gets what from the Moslems keeps it.

One international relations expert voiced an interesting opinion: if Tudjman and Milosevic agreed the carve up and the world accepts it, logically we are at the end of the war since the Americans have ways of making the Moslems accept a deal if they want to. What if they don't and the US decide to wait a while to see if the Bosnian Serb Army (BSA) really is close to collapse and if it waits a little more to see the Serbs crushed and solve the new situation?

For the first time since the war began, as a direct consequence of the fall of the Krajina, a military collapse of the BSA is a distinct possibility.

Karadzic's statements show that his grip on reality has gone even further. Beta news agency reported that he told his war presidency and entrepreneurs in Prijedor that he had imposed strict measures to prevent the fate of the Krajina befalling the Bosnian Serb Republic (RS). A fuss has been raised over Croatia "as if it is the Vermacht. The Croats run like rabbits when our soldiers arrive".

The exodus from the Krajina, the way it fell, the loud sabre rattling around Trebinje, uncertainty surrounding Drvar have already created an unstable psychological mood both among civilians and in the BSA and the consequences of the fall of another Bosnian Serb town could be horrifying. That is what RS parliament speaker Momcilo Krajisnik called "a general state of shock and confusion" following the fall of the Krajina.

If the mass fleeing of the population begins and it could, imagine how war-weary BSA soldiers would react given the mood of betrayal and clash between the RS political and military leaders. Karadzic apologized in public for trying to dismiss BSA commander General Ratko Mladic but Mladic didn't promise not to topple Karadzic.

Given that possible scenario, the situation in both Bosnia and Yugoslavia would change dramatically. How many more refugees can the FRY take especially if the refugees are angry and bring in vast quantities of weapons as they are rumored to have done from the Krajina. How many more can it take before the political mood in Serbia stops being as stable as it is now since Milosevic undoubtedly has a firm grip on things?

Quoting figures is pointless but the final figure isn't unlimited before the anger of the people who lost the war spills over Serbia and Milosevic could fall with a civil war starting in that event. The result of that would not be democracy but a dictatorship by Mladic and Seselj.

The nationalist opposition has limited itself to a closed circle of people mumbling to who knows who and there is no significant civil opposition nor can it be created. So Milosevic is becoming increasingly irreplaceable and the ensuing conclusion is that the US will insist on implementing the new peace plan rather than gloat over the Serb defeat in Bosnia. That is probably why the Serbian president is being offered a complete lifting of the sanctions for the first time if he accepts the plan.

Another question raises its head. If Milosevic signs the plan, why should his signature commit the Bosnian Serbs? To date his signatures never have. There is no disputing the plan being offered to Milosevic because the current decision (including the idea on a 5+3 conference, i.e. the Contact Group, Serbia, Croatia and the Moslems) is to negotiate only with states not insurgents and para-states. That is especially true of Karadzic who no one wants to know although he told Greek daily Ta Nea that if the (US) offer is serious he is ready to be flexible. Everyone's counting on Milosevic's influence as an interested party with the Bosnian Serbs although there have been contacts with the Bosnian Serbs themselves.

The question now is why Yugoslavia didn't provide military assistance to its brethren and does it intend to send troops to rescue Eastern Slavonia and Bosnia.

The best explanation came from Borisav Jovic: "It's very clear today that any movement of the Yugoslav Army over the border would be characterized as aggression". Besides the Vance plan under which Yugoslavia is obliged to come to the aid of the Krajina was signed by the former Yugoslavia and when the army's jurisdiction stretched over the entire former Yugoslavia. Once before, Jovic, who was state president when the Vance plan was signed, explained that the plan was signed by general Veljko Kadijevic and that he had nothing to do with it.

There is hardly an analyst in Belgrade who thinks a Yugoslav Army intervention is possible in Bosnia since Milosevic has a number of real and potential flashpoints to contend with and can't risk attacking one point in case he's attacked from all the rest.

Right now (Thursday afternoon) the best explanation came from Momcilo Krajisnik who told Belgrade's B-92 radio that the Yugoslav Army was watching the decisive battle for Trebinje from the Montenegrin border, waiting for the outcome as if it were an objective observer, a referee waiting to blow half time while Croatia came all the way from Zagreb to defend Herceg-Bosna.