Conditions For Panic

Most of the people in Banja Luka and in Bihac, Petrovac, Kljuc, Mrkonjic Grad and Jajce seriously considered getting out 10 days ago. The roads were jammed by the Serbs expelled from the Krajina who were spreading terrifying rumors of disaster and betrayal; Glamoc and Grahovo had fallen, Dravar was surrounded and under artillery fire with the Croats claiming it had fallen to them. At the same time the newspapers published the map that Croatian President Franjo Tudjman drew for British politician Paddy Ashdowne to illustrate his vision of the carve up of Bosnia between the Croats and Serbs (an S shaped line ran across the map giving Banja Luka to the Croats and Tuzla to the Serbs and other absurdities). To top it all, there was an increasing number of reports on a clash between the Bosnian Serb military and civilian leaders.

All the conditions for panic were right, the only thing missing was the fall of Drvar and the running would start. But the Serbs defended Drvar. "I can assure you that the lines around Drvar haven't moved in 15 days," Milan Milutinovic, chief of the Bosnian Serb Army (BSA) information service, told VREME. "We are holding all positions firmly, our soldiers are in the town which was shown by a Serb TV crew who filmed them. Some 70 Croat troops died in attacks on Drvar and the offensive stopped."

The Drvar front lines held, the refugee columns went to Serbia carrying their stories, the Bosnian Serbs slept on it and the panic drew back. "When we saw the columns and found out who they were we thought we should go with them," a young soldier said. "Now I think differently. We won't run like the Krajina people, we have nowhere to go, no one will give us bread in Serbia. We'll fight, we have the weapons."

The clash between the civilian and military leaders; i.e. the supreme command (Radovan Karadzic) and general staff headed by General Ratko Mladic moved to the trenches.

Mladic is under media isolation (no one in the Bosnian Serb Republic (RS) published the general staff letter and BSA officers' statements have been reduced to only front line reports. For 10 days Serbian state TV couldn't be seen.

"That's what happens when a student of medicine becomes the person who decides on reporting in the RS," Colonel Milutinovic said. "I estimate that despite everything, 70-80% of the people and the entire army support General Mladic. Mladic is not a coup plotter. The rumors that have been circulating for two months are completely unfounded. All he wants is to get the army's voice heard on the most important issues of state survival. The army wants to mobilize material and manpower, an equal sharing of the burden of war throughout society and normal living conditions for fighters, invalids and families who lost someone. There are no political ambitions there, that is just a wish to bring the war to an end and let the people voice their opinion afterwards. The general staff stands on peace, territorial divisions is clear: the army will accept all decisions by the people."

Probably fully aware of the danger, Karadzic spent the past 10 days touring the Bosnian Krajina where he was never really liked. He even visited a local community in Banja Luka with TV showing full halls and a president met with ovations. Some say he was also seen in the company of Stana the seer in Bijeljina who predicted the creation of a new state (Holy Yugoslavia) which would include parts of Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

Don't forget that besides Stana, Karadzic can count on support from most RS mayors. A lot of them have compromised themselves but they are financially powerful. RS parliament members are on the same side (their terms expired long ago along with Karadzic's), the SDS party network, part of the police and rumor has it some mid-ranking army officers who got their captain and major ranks thanks to party connections.

The easiest way is finances: you can always stop financing for some part of the front, cut off supplies, cause the fall of a town and blame the army.

The BSA has sufficient amounts of weapons and ammunition (some say too much) but the problem is food and clothes and other small things. Commanders get by any way they can. Some units who have been in the same area for a while set up their own farms. There's also the donor system: well- off soldiers pay several hundred DEM and get seven to 10 days leave (the price varies from unit to unit). The money collected that way is used for food, clothes, fuel.

"If the commander is an honest man, his men can live well from donors. If he isn't..." a young soldier said, explaining that the practice is almost legal at unit level. "Now Karadzic and his people have started attacking the army over that. They don't care, they've stolen enough but we have to go to war and eat."

Everyone has to eat but few can answer the question what and how. Monthly salaries are still strictly controlled: 45 to 135 Dinars. Payments are two-three months late; recently pensioners got their December 1994 checks. There isn't enough cash so the payments come in checks of five Dinars or more. Some shops take them and a few people in markets. Some dealers take them but the German Mark costs 3.5 Dinars in checks instead of 2.8 in cash. Most people live off relatives on farms or abroad.

ANTRFILE

Komarica, Radic, Martic, Koljevic and Co.

Banja Luka was flooded by refugees several times in this war: in 1991 the Slavonija Serbs came, during the war people from central Bosnia would get there occasionally, last April some 10,000 Western Slavonija refugees arrived and then the Krajina flood began. Every time the city's Croats and Moslems were targeted: they were thrown out of their houses, beaten and even killed sometimes. This time was no different: Banja Luka's Budzak suburb, mainly Croat before the war, is almost empty and Bishop Franjo Komarica said one of three Catholic groups in Prnjavor is gone and that over 4,000 of the 13,000 Croats in the area had gone and another 2,000 were preparing to go. He added that city authorities told him on the second day of the Croatian attack on the Krajina that all Croats would be expelled. At a recent press conference, Banja Luka mayor Predrag Radic denied Komarica's claims and added: "If 150,000 Serbs come through Banja Luka where a number of Moslems and Croats live as they do, it's very hard to safeguard those people." He noted that "when a column of 10,000 Western Slavonija refugees come here the international community hides the fact but when 2-3,000 people leave here it's a world class problem."

Informal sources said that some in the city authorities, with the approval of Nikola Koljevic, tried to protect at least some Moslem and Croat intellectuals, city councilors, doctors, artists, members of old and respected families. The logic is clear if they stay, the others won't be so ready to leave.