Serbs in Croatia

According to the estimates of Milan Djukic, leader of the Serbian National Party, which have been confirmed by other sources, there are no more than 90 thousand Serbs left in Croatia while before the attack on Krajina there were around 300 thousand of them. The frequent comment that Croatia achieved a level of "ethnic cleanliness" of which Pavelic (leader of the Croatian pro-Nazi state during World War II) could only have dreamt of, is largely true, though Franjo Tudjman is not the only person responsible

A proportion of refugees from Krajina who fled after the Croatian "Storm" could return to their homes. In the meantime other Serbs will leave- newspapers are full of ads published by people willing to exchange property in Zagreb, Zadar, Rijeka, Osijek, Split and other Croatian towns for property in Serbia. One thing which is certain is that Serbs in Croatia will cease to play the part they played for hundreds of years. Official Croatia is overjoyed, beyond the limits of good taste. Leader of the Croatian Party of Rights, also a member of Croatian Parliament, Ante Djapic said that he watched the departure of the Serbs with satisfaction because "a part of the Serbian minority was a tumor which for the last hundred years systematically prevented the consolidation of Croatian people and the forming of the Croatian state". Opinions of other less extreme leaders, including many state officials do not differ much from the one above. Drago Krpina, president of the Parliamentary committee for peaceful reintegration, spoke of the "re-croatization of liberated areas", and explained that all Croats paid the price of Serbian aggression, but that in the end, Serbs themselves will have to pay the highest price.

Propaganda of Tudjman's regime is based on three claims. First is that Serbian refugees left of their own accord, second is that they have been invited to stay (or as Tudjman put it "We invited them to stay, they left anyway, and there is nothing more that we can do about it"), and finally that all Serbs who decide to stay will be guaranteed civil and property rights.

At the same time, the UN, International Helsinki Human Rights Federation (IHF) and the Croatian Helsinki Committee reports about dead civilians lying in the streets started coming through. According to a IHF report, General Alian Forrand, commander of Sector Knin, counted twenty-two dead men, women and children on the main road to the hospital. The same source claims that General Cermak, Croatian military commander for the Knin area, announced that "in the hills, there are probably around 200-300 bodies with gunshots to the head". Human rights organizations also suspect the existence of mass graves. Houses and crops are being set on fire (around 4,000 buildings in the southern sector), cattle is being killed or given to Croats returning to Krajina.

According to some estimates 99 percent of Serbs left Krajina- around 200 thousand people. William Hayden, member of the International Helsinki Federation, told the press that: "the return of Serbian refugees is being systematically thwarted". He added that claims by representatives of the Croatian government (including President Tudjman) that there was no arson or looting in Knin were - absolutely untrue.

It is interesting that authorities in Belgrade do not seem particularly interested in the possibility of refugees returning to Krajina. They have not requested either from the international community or Croatia to take the necessary steps to ensure the safe return of refugees. Judging from official statements, the only request made by Yugoslavia concerns the lifting of "unjust" sanctions. They have not addressed the refugees at all, since it is not in the character of the authorities, and because they have nothing to say to them. Dusan Ecimovic, one of the former leaders of Serbs in Western Slavonija now a refugee, told "Vreme" that "according to state controlled media, the refugees should erect a monument to Serbia for letting them in". As far as opposition parties are concerned, representatives of the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) announced that the new peace plan must include a provision stating that great powers will guarantee the safe return of all refugees from previous Yugoslavia to their homes. This announcement was followed by a statement by the Democratic Party (DS) calling for the return of Serbian refugees from Krajina to their homes.

Are there any real chances that the refugees will ever return to Krajina? "The international community should not accept the ethnic cleansing as a fait d'accompli", Novak Pribicevic, a former diplomat, originally from those parts told "Vreme". " I think that the Croatian state leadership, in its triumphalistic euphoria, failed to see that this brutal act changed the way in which the international community sees Croatia, and that it is likely to have negative consequences on Croatia's economic and political interests in terms of its eventual European integration. Therefore, the return of at least part of the population to their homes is likely to become part of Croatia's national interest as well. Of course, it would be necessary for those homes to exist, and we know that looting and destruction of villages and communications is still going on in parts of Krajina. However not all parts of Krajina have been hit, especially larger towns, Kordun, Banija- which means that physical conditions for the return of some refugees exist". Most people "Vreme" spoke to agree that without international guarantees there is practically no chance that any of the refugees will ever return. For the time being there are no indications of any such guarantees. Jovica Vejnovic, also a former diplomat originally from the village of Mokro Polje outside Knin, is of the opinion that the world inclines towards real politik and is ready to put some effort only in the prevention of the conflict spreading elsewhere, in minimizing its impact on the domestic political life of the USA and larger European states- and to continue with humanitarian aid. As far as the most recent peace plan is concerned, which could include a solution to the problem of Krajina refugees, Vejinovic says that international factors must first resolve their own misunderstandings and the conflict of interests in Yugoslavia, and must insure means by which they would guarantee the provisions of the plan.

Dusan Ecimovic, on the other hand, reminds of the fate of 20,000 or so refugees who fled Western Slavonija in May. Their property is now being inhabited by Croats who fled in 1991, but also by "new" Croats from Vukovar, Banja Luka, Posavina in Bosnia, and the second wave of Janjevci from Kosovo. It must also be noted that in 1992 a plan had been drawn aimed at the return of refugees to Western Slavonija. Croatia agreed to the plan but it never received a green light from Radmilo Bogdanovic and Slobodan Milosevic. In the days when Martic and Hadzic got along well, it was in their interest to inhabit as many refugees from Western Slavonija in Eastern Slavonija in order to make it more "Serbian", since before the war Serbs constituted only 22.8% of its population, that is less than a quarter. They were mainly placed in looted and destroyed houses in villages near the Eastern Slavonijan front- in Tenja, Lipovac, Nijemci, Djeletovci, Bilje... Since they had no other option, the refugees accepted this although they knew they will become cannon fodder in some future war.

"Karadzic had the ambition of bringing refugees from Western Slavonija to Posavina. However no one went there", Ecimovic said, adding that he believes that a synchronized US-Russian initiative will bring some kind of peace to former Yugoslavia within the framework of a global solution to the conflict and that part of the Serbian population of Croatia currently in exile will return to their homes. What might happen is that 40-50,000 mostly elderly people will return, and will be used as an alibi for the Croatian authorities. The whole thing would resemble the fate of the American Indians. Of course the issue of the future of Serbs in Croatia can not be limited to the return of refugees from Krajina. There are around 100,000 Serbs in Eastern Slavonija. What will happen to them? If Croatia repeats operation "Storm", they will probably all come to Serbia. The opinion that Yugoslavia would intervene militarily in such a case is very rare, while most analysts think that Croatia will not get involved in any kind of military action in the region but will allow some kind of Serbian government in the region in accordance with the Z-4 plan, which would inevitably lead to eventual reintegration within Croatia. This could happen quietly if Belgrade so wishes, since it has a strong influence on Hadzic, the local Serbian leader. Croatian authorities can not give up Eastern Slavonija, not only because of its oil and agriculture, but also because of Vukovar, which became the symbol of Croatian resistance. According to some analysts, the government which would give up Vukovar would be sure to fall.

Finally, there are Serbs living in larger cities (around 30,000 in Zagreb). Their quiet departure which has been going on since the beginning of the war, is likely to continue since unsynchronized efforts by Serbian political parties in Croatia are unlikely to lead to any improvement. It is also unlikely that they will present a substantial political force in the future. Considering the fact that the collective minority rights of Serbs will be reduced to those of other minorities in Croatia (Italians, Hungarians, Jews) and particularly the fact that any Serbian organization is likely to be considered undesirable- the chances of a Serbian theater, television or radio being established are practically zero.

Before the war, Serbs constituted 11% of Croatia's population (of which only 15.6% lived in Krajina) while now their number has been brought down to a mere 4 or 5 percent. In 1992, Tudjman himself expected that between 6 and 8% of Serbian population will remain in Croatia. According to the estimates of Milan Djukic, leader of the Serbian National Party, which have been confirmed by other sources, there are no more than 90 thousand Serbs left in Croatia while before the attack on Krajina there were around 300 thousand of them. The frequent comment that Croatia achieved a level of "ethnic cleanliness" of which Pavelic (leader of the Croatian pro-Nazi state during World War II) could only have dreamt of, is largely true, though Franjo Tudjman is not the only person responsible.

As Dr. Vojislav Vukcevic, General Secretary of the SPO, once one of the leaders of Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), said: "Only those who are not up to either their past or their present can lose something they had for 800 years". Those who created and put into practice the failed attempt to solve the problem of Serbs in Croatia by constituting a Serbian state within internationally recognized borders of Croatia can now only talk about: how last century Croatian Parliament said that Serbs are an important part of the Croatian state, how the Krka monastery was built in 1350 by Jelena - Emperor Dusan's sister, that the Krupa monastery, the biggest Serbian cultural monument in Croatia was built in 1317... As Zvonimir Berkovic, a Croatian film director, said recently: "The Serbs have left. It seems for ever. I can still not believe it".

Tudjmanland

Prominent people from Zagreb talked to "Vreme" about the future of Serbs in Croatia

Milorad Pupovac, president of the Independent Serbian Party: "At the moment there are no conditions for the return of Serbian refugees who fled Sectors North and South, and things being how they are- both in Croatia and Bosnia, I am afraid that these conditions will not be created in the near future... There is still no answer to the fundamental question of the moment- how to bring those people back? There are initiatives by non-governmental organizations, Helsinki Committee, Anti-War Action, Union of Serbian Organizations, but all of them can only formulate needs, express the desire of families to return, etc. but no more than that. Not even international humanitarian organizations, such as the UNHCR, have mechanisms by which they could deal with the situation".

Petar Mrkalj, Croatian Helsinki Committee: "We are negotiating with the International Helsinki Federation in Vienna and the Norwegian Helsinki Committee for Human Rights, since they both expressed an interest in the creation of groups of human rights monitors which would facilitate the return of refugees, and the opening of a joint office in Knin."

Silvije Degen, Action of Social-Democrats of Croatia: "Ethnic cleansing and humane migration are a political catastrophe, however they are also the reality of today. The refugees are citizens of Croatia entitled to a Croatian passport as a proof of citizenship. I think that there is no law that could prevent the refugees from returning to their homes, but the fact that male refugees are being mobilized and sent to 'Republic of Srpska' means that some of them will take part in an armed revolt and thus become enemies..."

Veselin Pejnovic, Serbian National Party: "We suggest the unconditional return of all citizens who wish to do so, and without conditions such as the possession of a Croatian passport or any other document. What is also needed is special international control and monitoring by the EU, and an International Court of Human Rights which should be established for this purpose. Besides, the European Union should provide funds for the economic reconstruction of these areas ("Phare program" or some similar source). All this depends on the negotiation process. If the process fails at the global level, we suggested a pilot project at a local level, in the region of Donji Lapac. It would require the consent of all parties involved (Croatia, FRY which would have to allow the return of the refugees) including the Bosnian Serbs who should not be allowed to hinder the return of the refugees."

Stipe Suvar, a sociologist, professor of demography at the Zagreb University: "After the 'Storm', Croatia has become ethnically one of the most pure states in the world. It 'got rid' of the Serbs, apart from a small number scattered around larger towns. What Pavelic began, Tudjman completed. A large majority of Croats live with the illusion that their state will continue to live happily for a thousand years, while Croatia is at the moment Tudjmanland, a banana republic of the South American type in the middle of Europe. Its inhabitants will suffer, among other things from claustrophobia and recovery from it is likely to be a lengthy one. The current regime will attempt to croatise Krajina, and unfortunate exiles from Bosnia and Serbia will be brought to live there. However, for a very long time, if not forever, those parts will remain deserted. For centuries people in those parts, Serbs and Croats, suffered because of others and for the benefit of others, and in the hands of others or each other. It will become a 'cordon sanitaire' which Croatia and Croats will be ashamed of in the centuries to come".