War for Peace

by Milos Vasic

While the Bosnian Serbs were being bombed by NATO, Slobodan Milosevic tried to persuade them to sign anything, in order to finally bring the whole thing to an end. The results of both actions are now being assessed, though it is clear that the war in Bosnia is entering an entirely new phase

On Wednesday, August 30, at 2 a.m., NATO air-force attacked military targets in the Serb Republic in B-H, as part of the organization's largest combat mission since it was formed (the second largest mission is the shooting down of four Serb jets about a year ago). Senad Avdic, "Bosnia's" correspondent from Sarajevo, was woken up by loud explosions: "When I got to the window I saw that everything was on fire", he told "Vreme" during a conversation on the phone. "The whole horizon was in flames, and people ran for shelter before realizing that it was not us, but the surrounding areas that were being bombed".

Most targets of the attack were around Sarajevo, though areas around Pale, Foca, Gorazde, Rogatica, Mostar, Tuzla and Zvornik have also been bombed, while in the night between Wednesday and Thursday, three planes attacked Nevesinje. NATO jets targeted artillery positions, integrated anti-aircraft defence systems (missiles, guns, radars, telecommunications, command centers), relays communication towers, ammunition and fuel dumps, arms factories and what Gen. Ratko Mladic called "political installations" (government offices).

Sources close to NATO unofficially estimate that 50 percent of Serb anti-aircraft capacity has already been destroyed. The exact number of casualties is unknown; on Wednesday, Bosnian Serb authorities reported the death of seven civilians and five European Union monitors (of which two were citizens of FR Yugoslavia), who allegedly died during air strikes in the area south of Sarajevo.

According to Gen. Ratko Mladic, another ten or so people died around Rogatica. Baring in mind the number of strikes and the quantity of explosives used, fears that there were more casualties are justified.

The strikes took place all day Wednesday: the first being at 2 a.m., second at 4 a.m., while at 4:45 the Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) artillery stationed on Mount Igman also intervened. The artillery shelled Serb cannon and mortar positions and their ammunition dumps around Lukavica, Grbavica, Ilidza, Vogosca, Zuca and north of Sarajevo (Srednje), and used radars which can trace the source of enemy fire to pick their targets. When Bosnian Serb army (VRS) retaliated by shelling UNPROFOR positions in Sarajevo city (Vrbanj Most, their logistics base in Skenderija and the "Marshal Tito" barracks), RRF artillery located the exact spots from which missiles were fired and "neutralized" cannons and mortars responsible.

This NATO operation hardly came as a surprise. Everything began with the mortar attack on Sarajevo city-center, on Monday, August 28, which killed 37 and wounded almost one hundred civilians. UN experts analyzed the traces of the explosion, and results of radar and acoustic observation and established that a 120 mm shell fired from Bosnian Serb positions was responsible. The exact position was not revealed, and British press says that it is a case of understandable restraint since the radar system for tracing the source of artillery fire was destroyed as soon as it was brought by the Ukrainians in 1992. The massacre in Tito's Street in Sarajevo provoked fierce reactions and unambiguous promises that the whole thing will not pass unpunished. On the ground, things started developing very quickly: several hours after the massacre in Sarajevo, 77 British troops still in Gorazde were ordered by their command to leave the area and were given 20 minutes to do so, which was 24 hours before schedule. RRF positions on Mount Igman were closed for visits by foreign journalists (who, in the absence of military activity on the ground, spent most of their time with the RRF). On Tuesday, a UN official said that "the key has been turned and it is for the commanders on the ground to decide when and how. The automatic pilot has been switched on". UN military spokesman, Lieutenant-Colonel Chris Vernon, added that the risk of Serb retaliation following NATO air-strikes is "lowest since the beginning of the conflict in Bosnia". Those who could read and who were not blinded by prejudice could have foreseen the attack. However prejudice prevailed as is usually the case: all sides in the conflict expected the UN and NATO threats to be as hollow as they have been in the past. They reasoned that once again two jets will destroy two tanks, end of story. It appears that the significance of the most recent - Halbrook's - peace initiative for the USA and their NATO allies was greatly underestimated.

Americans wanted to kill two birds with one NATO "stone" and keep the peace process in Bosnia, currently the most important diplomatic industry in the world, alive. First of all, on Tuesday, Richard Halbrook warned Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic that the Bosnian army must not interfere with the NATO operation or use it for making potential advances, in spite of the temptation to do so. According to the UN, the Bosnian army is complying with the warning. According to certain foreign sources, the agreement between Halbrook and Izetbegovic is as follows: you will stay in peace negotiations, and we will destroy Mladic's army from the air (after the massacre, Izetbegovic refused to "negotiate at gun point"). While NATO pounded the Bosnian Serbs on Wednesday, Halbrook was in Belgrade, explaining his peace proposal to Milosevic. The word has it that Akashi warned Milosevic of what was about to happen. Everything passed without much fuss or heavy rhetoric.

The timing of events indicates that Milosevic had just enough time on Tuesday to call an urgent meeting with Bosnian Serb leadership and confront them with an offer they can not refuse: the game is over, the bill has arrived, and time has come to make a deal and get what we can out of it; otherwise, you will see what NATO can do. Milosevic's position was as comfortable as at the time of the catastrophe in Krajina and the exodus that followed it (something that state controlled media in Serbia were eager to point out): when I told you what to do at the time of the Vance-Owen plan, you didn't listen; when I told you to accept the Contact Group plan and its 49%, you refused; well now I'm sick of your bullheaded adventurism and gratuitous folk-heroism - either we negotiate, all of us with me in front- or I will throw you down the drain: if I successfully handled the fall of Krajina, I will certainly be able to handle your military defeat and social collapse. This case of washing ones hands of it like Pontius Pilate, accompanied by a clear illustration in the form of accurate 1000 kg bombs, appears to have been fruitful: on Wednesday evening Ratomir Vico, Information Minister, read out the "historic" declaration.

Bosnian Serb leadership reacted to NATO air-strikes in the usual manner: on Wednesday afternoon Radovan Karadzic said that they were a case of "aggression", that Serbs will "win", that they will "shoot down the jets", that the "determination of Serbian people to have their own state" will only become stronger after the recent air-strikes, and that the West is about find out "what Serbs are really like". Gen. Ratko Mladic said that the Bosnian army is getting ready to attack, and added on Wednesday evening that he will not withdraw the heavy artillery beyond the 20 mile boundary around Sarajevo, but will shoot down NATO jets. It is interesting that this was the first appearance of Gen. Mladic on TV Pale after an absence of several months (TV Pale reported the historical agreement reached in Belgrade on Wednesday for the first time on Thursday evening, and did not discuss it with Gen. Mladic). Aleksa Buha, Bosnian Serb Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that "NATO air-strike will not help the peace process".

The Bosnian side, of course, welcomed the strikes as a "step towards peace".

If there is anything new about recent events then it is the change in the rules of the game in Bosnia: the well known story about the "neutrality" of UNPROFOR is gone for ever. The latest NATO and UN campaign is the first serious military step by world powers in Bosnia, and all pledges of neutrality are quite useless: someone who destroys so many Bosnian Serb artillery positions is not neutral, full stop. All this was clear in 1992, when UNPROFOR arrived in Bosnia: if someone is besieging a city with the intention of starving it into surrender, than those bringing food to the city are enemies of those who are besieging. The story of UN "neutrality" was kept alive by superhuman diplomatic efforts and created immense problems on the ground and in negotiations (frustrated troops, bad compromises, tension between the UN and all three warring parties).

If last weak lessons have been learnt properly, some kind of a peace settlement- most probably a temporary one - is on the way: the concept of safe areas is now likely to be put into practice; Karadzic's quibbles have been brought to an end; it is now known who is the chief negotiator and who will be held responsible if the negotiations fail. However one should not get overly optimistic since both Karadzic and Milosevic now have a perfect alibi: the former can always accuse the latter of making too many concessions, while the latter can always accuse the former of obstruction and deceit. As usual, the final score will depend on who has more trump cards, though we must not neglect the third player at the table: Bosnians, onlookers and world powers.