Ethnic Cleansing

The technology is still the same: Milorad Minic, until recently one of Milosevic's most trusted men, heard of the sacking of Milorad Vucelic, the director of Serbian Radio-Television, from the press. A political analyst from Belgrade interpreted this as a "clear signal": "you were not good enough; I can sack you whenever I like; will you be more careful in the future?"

As a serious autocrat, Milosevic simply decided the time has come for him to shake his associates a bit, as a reminder that he still means business and to prepare them for all the tasks that await them. Minic fared well in the whole combination. Vucelic did not.

The clean-up began soon after the famous session of the Main Board of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) when the now insignificant Mihajlo Markovic, an academic and former ideologist of the SPS, tried to say something against Milosevic's policies. Reports that none of those present responded to these criticisms are untrue. Quite a few of them spoke, and the first one to realize that the whole affair will not end just like that was Ivica Dacic, spokesman for the SPS. If Milosevic carefully analyzed, and we can be sure that he did, who said what during the session, Dacic's support to his peacemaking policies will not be forgotten. Just as Borisav Jovic, Aleksa Jokic, Radovan Pankov, Zoran Andjelkovic and others who to a lesser or greater extent supported Mihajlovic's views (though of course none of them said anything bad about Milosevic either) are unlikely to be forgiven.

Serbia's most powerful man hardly needed a better excuse. He stopped thinking about moves and started making them. Important and less important people were removed from their posts without explanation. Vucelic was the biggest beast so far. At the same time Aleksa Jokic started to crumble, and was informed on the eve of the meeting that he was no longer president of the Republic's Committee for Refugees. The rumor about the "hunt which is under way" started spreading throughout the SPS, accompanied by a warning that no one is safe not even the most faithful. The signal sent to Minic applied to everyone. "Show me what you can do, and I'll think about it".

Those who consider themselves well informed are of the opinion that Vucelic was a victim of a "court intrigue", not uncommon in any dictator's entourage. First of all someone started a rumor which reached Milosevic's ears, about Vucelic being a member of the so-called "war lobby" within the SPS (no one knows for certain which other members of the SPS belong to this "lobby", but the label is used whenever it is required). Later on, someone told the boss about certain financial dealings by the director of Serbian Radio and Television who was then proclaimed a member of the "techno-managerial lobby" (a label used to describe those who are in favor of privatization). In the end, this time quite correctly, Vucelic's "negative attitude" towards JUL (party led by Mirjana Markovic, President Milosevic's wife) was revealed, and all that was needed then was a meeting of the SPS's Main Board and a hint to Milosevic that the stories about "some people" trying to unseat him are true.

Unlike certain SPS officials, JUL "hit-men" who greeted the hunting season, knew both of the debate about the sacking which took place at the Cabinet meeting and that Dragoljub Milanovic will be Vucelic's successor. They were also very well informed about who's position within the SPS is unsteady. "Everybody's" was one JUL official's malicious comment.

Ever since JUL was inaugurated, it was obvious that it is working on a quiet "occupation" of the SPS and the creation of some form of parallel government. JUL openly cast an eye on several key positions in Serbia (Serbian Electricity Board, the Forestry Commission, Ministry of Finances, part of "Jugopetrol's" oil business, the media...); it has good connections in the Serbian government and police (Unkovic, Bogdanovic, Cerovic); it got involved in diplomacy (the appointment of Dojcilo Masovaric as the Yugoslav ambassador to the Vatican), and most importantly, via Mirjana Markovic it ensured almost completely Milosevic's support.

JUL needs only one thing before it can take over the whole country: the massive executive and organizational apparatus which the SPS has. This is why, in recent weeks, Mrs. Markovic insisted on a final merger of the two organizations, a step Milosevic is not quite ready for. In the end JUL retreated a little, but continued with the active participation in the hunt for marked socialists (or maybe even a random sample of them), and continued pursuing its ambition to have as many cabinet seats as possible in some future Serbian government.

One of the fiercest battles in the whole little war in which participants do not know which side they belong to (at least until they are killed), will be the one in "Politika". In this battle, at least we will know who the sides are. Dragan Hadzi Antic, the Director of "Politika" is on one side while Zivorad Minovic, Chairman of the Board of "Politika Ltd." is on the other. The former favors JUL while the latter favors above all himself but also the "hard-core" of the SPS (which includes Milomir Minic). Both of them have undisguised pretensions to become the only spokesman and interpreter of Milosevic's policies. That would be one of the few positions in Serbia which would ensure a regular, daily contact with the "boss". This right to know exactly what the "boss" thinks implies power. Great power.

Although the events in Politika could not be interpreted as a taster of what is to happen all around Serbia - the RTS already performed this role - it must not be considered any less important, primarily because Minovic's departure would mean that Milosevic decided to finish the job he started. Well informed sources claim that the chairman of "Politica Ltd." will be followed by quite a few other Socialists; that everything the international community demands will be signed; that Milosevic will turn to young and fresh forces within the ruling party, reconstruct the Cabinet and call an election next December. If Minovic remains where he is, the whole above mentioned plan will have to be, at least to some extent, altered.

For the time being, the latter option is unlikely. Dragan Hadzi Antic visited the Serbian President quite a few times in the last ten or so days, while Minovic did not. Some sources announced that he received "full support" to remove Minovic from "Politika" and recent events confirm these speculations. On Wednesday Slobodan Ignjatovic, former Federal Minister of Information, Director of Radio and TV (RTV) "Politika", and Minovic's "confidant", was sacked though the events behind his removal are even more important. Until recently, 51% of RTV "Politika" was owned by "Politika Ltd.", that is by Minovic. However, after a change in the company statute, Minovic has nothing more to do with RTV "Politika", while 51% of its shares have been divided between "Politika" newspaper (Antic) and the "Politika" printing house. Also Antic was appointed new Director of RTV "Politika".

There was no official announcement of a Cabinet reshuffle, though unofficially - it will happen in the next couple of weeks. Even before the above mentioned events, people wondered whether Milosevic needs anything of the kind. Then he decided that he does. An agreement with JUL already existed while according to some sources, Milosevic offered Draskovic "everything he wants except the Ministry of the Interior" and a deal was reached without further ado. All this happened because many even more important negotiators than Holbrooke, await Milosevic and his famous sofa. If the sanctions are lifted, Yugoslavia and Serbia will have to talk to those who have the money (World Bank, IMF, International Bank for Development). It is already known that they will want to see "stable social and political conditions" in the country. The coalition government of national unity and Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) within it are nothing other than a positive reply to that question.

Besides, such a government would enable Milosevic to begin preparations for elections which will be held later this year, if everything goes according to plan. He would have behind him a consolidated SPS with its "organizational" potential, peace, the lifting of sanctions, and the unified voice of an until recently divided political block: SPS, JUL, SPO, New Democracy, Civil Union. Another hope is that such a move would marginalize the rest of the opposition (Serbian Radical Party, Democratic Party, Democratic Party of Serbia) the popularity of which, according to certain polls, increased in recent months. According to the latest reports, preparations for the Cabinet reshuffle are being brought to an end. Dusan Mihajlovic, leader of the New Democracy, is being mentioned as the new Prime Minister. Mirko Marjanovic, the current Prime Minister, is likely to become the new Ambassador to Moscow. Since Slobodan Unkovic is also likely to be appointed Ambassador to Peking, the seat of the Deputy Prime Minister will also be vacant. Minister Jokic is on the "hit-list". There will probably be a few other vacancies, while socialists, on the President's request, will retain the Ministry of Police.

Reactions

"I will open a bottle of champagne", Zoran Djindjic told Vreme when we asked him about what he will do if the above mentioned reshuffle happens. The president of the Democratic Party also said that if the Cabinet includes SPO, the situation in the opposition will finally be clarified and the Democratic Party, Democratic Party of Serbia and the Radical Party will feel "relieved".

Vojislav Seselj said that his party will vote against the new government and expressed the view that SPO's participation in it would be "suicidal". Democratic Party of Serbia refused to comment, but expressed a doubt that "Milosevic is willing to share power".

Leaders of the three parties met last Monday in order to clarify details about future cooperation. At the meeting, Vojislav Seselj was given the "task" of contacting Vuk Draskovic and inviting him to join the new union. Draskovic refused to talk about this "before the middle of next (this) week".