Logic and Justice

Serbia has fallen silent.

Papers are still being printed, announcements are being written, statements are being issued, things are being said on radio and television, people are being attacked and accused by others, but none of this has had any repercussions.

And when no one is listening, and no one gives a damn, when words do not move anybody or anything, than what someone said or whether anybody said anything becomes irrelevant. If there is any truth in the well known story according to which Duke Milos, Serbian 19th century ruler, relented only when he heard that people were silent, then Milosevic should start getting worried.

However the current silence might not be of the kind that is ominous of revolt and revolution, but is also unlikely to be one of those placid and gentlemanly Belgrade silences which Crnjanski described so well. It is more likely to be a sign of fatigue and the loss of belief in the power of speech. I sometimes hear foreigners who find themselves in these parts wondering why no one reacts to this or that. They are not aware how much people talked, reacted, screamed, raged, celebrated and jumped into the sky until recently. It was even thought that Serbs do not have to abide by the law of gravitation. There was a general conviction that the whole world will give in before the triumphant slogan "Nothing can bring us to reason!"

So for a whole month now no one has anything special to say either about the total defeat in Krajina or the refugee crisis that followed it. Where are all those inspired preachers who considered this war part of their poetic license? They had many strong and relentless metaphors which glorified blood, vengeance, and the death of others, and when everything turned against the Serbs, all they could do was to start lamenting. But none of them have enough will for a decent confession, sensible actions or any kind of sacrifice for the benefit of the wretches who trusted them so. The exile of Serbs from Krajina was apparently a great shock, and many patriots can still not quite believe it. National strategists and experts in Serbian fate, are still only getting ready to take a look at the historical significance and consequences of this defeat. However history, which is being created in Bosnia by NATO jets, can not wait for these analysis to be completed.

Serbian defeat is becoming increasingly likely, and is threatening to become quite a massive one, partly because responses are always so slow and because people take time to figure out that the balance of power on the ground and the course of events is damaging to the Serbs. Slobodan Milosevic at least got his sums right. A year ago he realized that the last of his seven Biblical fat cows has gone, figured out that the thin ones are next and started slowing down. However the strong wave of nationalism required for his former war policies could not be halted that easily and the inertia lead to the intervention of the greatest military union on the globe. Those who continued to pursue policies which ignored the rights of minorities and the weak, now have a good opportunity to experience how difficult and uncomfortable the language of force can be.

There is no doubt that it must be humiliating when Milosevic talks calmly with an American diplomat, while American bombs are falling on Karadzic's and Mladic's army. However it is no longer possible to talk to the world in the name of the Serbs with dignity, and it will be great if this turns out to be the last humiliation and if the withdrawal of heavy artillery and the signing of the American peace plan turns out to be the biggest defeat. The bombs are still being dropped over Serbian negotiating positions as well positions of the Bosnian Serb military. Yesterday's offer will look too good tomorrow and will be accepted. If 49 percent is still not enough for them, wait for another week or a month and they will be overjoyed if they are allowed to keep even 30 percent.

Serbian defeat in Croatia is already huge. In Bosnia it is just beginning, and no matter how deserved it may be, no one will benefit if it turns out to be total. World powers might take this into account, but they might not especially if the Serbs themselves obstruct them in doing so. If they carry on asking for all or nothing, the World won't find it difficult to agree that they deserve nothing. Just like in Krajina.

These are therefore the last moments for the Serbs to do something sensible, something to their benefit which would cause no harm to anyone else. I think that the problem lies in a big psychological change, and the need to break through a kind of mental blockade which has been in existence for years and which obstructs a more realistic view of the structure, dynamics, and even the importance of the current situation. What is happening now is final and incorrigible. NATO air force is creating a new reality in Bosnia, just as the Serbs used to do, only in the opposite direction and much faster. The future and the fate of Serbs in Bosnia depends on when and how much Gen. Mladic will give in. Will he give a little today, a lot tomorrow, and everything the day after? Maybe this country is silent because it is beginning to feel the size of the drama and because it remembers the heavy words which were spoken at its beginning.

The essence of the above mentioned psychological blockade is the feeling that Serbs are surrounded by enemies, and both the regime and majority of the opposition parties worked on the creation of this feeling, for their own ideological reasons. Both communist conservatism and conservative nationalism led to it, and it turned out that Milosevic found it easier to break his blockade of a communist origin, while the majority of nationalists remain locked in their Orthodox-patriarchal paranoia. That is why he is a much better negotiator, in spite of his potential guilt, than any of the uncompromised nationalists.

The problem is, of course, much greater now that the Serbs really found themselves surrounded by enemies. There is not enough time for discussions about whether Serbs have anything in common with the rest of the World; whether their pure national being ought to be allowed closer contact with the Western rot; about the best way to defend it from European fashion, drugs and nihilism, and how not to yield to international merchants who demand no less than the soul itself. The liberation from the pretentious fiction about the New World anti-Serbian order is also not on the agenda, neither is the argument that if Serbs see reason their identity will not be seriously endangered, and that some reason will not immediately make Americans and Germans out of them.

Everything is happening far too slowly. It is impossible to free people of such convictions in two days, and the countdown in Bosnia has already started. The language of force and orders must be understood, since that is what they are, in spite of Richard Holbrooke's diplomatic and polite claims that negotiations are independent of NATO action in Bosnia. These orders, on the other hand, are still neither unjust nor damaging to the Serbs, except from the point of view of Seselj's borders and pretensions.

General Mladic may still have a reason to be anxious about whether the Muslims will make use of his retreat from around Sarajevo, though this is a case of a more radical twist in the tale. At the moment the acceptance of the peace plan would be quite safe for the Serbian side since it means making a deal with respectable countries which honor agreements. However if the whole thing drags on and the bombing continues, Izetbegovic might seek and gain permission to lose his patience and begin an offensive. In any case it is clear that NATO will not give up, and that Mladic can not win.

Milosevic is probably aware of all of this and is ready to adopt Holbrooke's point of view. However, he should not be expected to neglect either himself and his power in the national interest. This means that if his work is obstructed by the opposition, either from within or outside his Socialist Party, if he is accused of treason or if he notices that someone is plotting against him, he might decide to quit the negotiations and let the whole thing go to Hell. At least there would be some logic and justice in such an ending.