Empty Larder

Before sanctions were imposed, Kolubara had 40 million tonnes of coal for production; now it has eight million tonnes. Only 65 percent of the capacities have been repaired for the winter. The greatest problem is removal of waste from coal reserves. In thermo-electric power plant Nikola Tesla in Obrenovac, which gets coal from Kolubara, repairs have been completed on 11 blocks while three others are still under repair. "We hope to have these three blocks completed by the beginning of winter," says director Rade Mihailovic, and adds that ideas about major repairs were abandoned last spring. Director of the thermo-electric power plant Nikola Tesla B, Vujadin Gemaljevic, explains with engineer's accuracy what it means not to do capital repairs: "No one in the world has worked for 90,000 hours with one machine the way we are doing in our block."

Engineers, of course, know that machines must be opened after 50,000 hours of work, checked in detail, worn out parts must be replaced, cleaned, greased, but the machines are not being opened. There is no money for such expensive undertakings; there are no spare parts and some operations may not be performed without the presence of suppliers of spare parts and materials from abroad.

The Loose Link: When one knows that Kolubara produces over 70 percent of the coal for the Serbian electric power industry and thermo-electric power plant Nikola Tesla about 70 percent of electric power, it is not difficult to imagine the situation with electricity this winter. Serbia's electric power industry enters the fourth winter under sanctions unsteadily, fearing damages, with insufficient fuel, acid, materials and spare parts. Everyone is hoping, though, to get through the winter. Repairs were done for "as much money as there was." People in Kolubara say they worked all summer in winter regime, that they are constantly on alert and that they would exceed the planned production: instead of 24 million tonnes of coal, they will produce 26 million this year. The situation is similar in other mines and electric power plants, except in Kosovo where no repairs have been done. The loosest link are distribution companies. Most of them have not managed to replace the equipment damaged last winter (tens of thousands of kilometers of cables, etc.). Only a quarter of repairs planned for this year have been completed.

The story about the electric power industry might develop in many directions, and this time we are interested in its role in heating. Despite politicians who tried to persuade us that Serbia had more electricity than it needed, no energy expert would advise electric heating. To use precious energy to heat rooms is energetic and economic wastefulness. Nevertheless, such nonsense has become a mass phenomenon. Without analyzing the causes of this phenomenon - embargo on the import of other forms of energy has forced the people to use whatever they can get - one must know that such folly costs a lot and that someone has got to pay for it. According to the Serbian government's decisions, the electric power used for heating will not be cheap this winter as it was in the previous years. This does not mean that people will not be using electric power for heating; it only means they will not be paying their electricity bills.

The electric power industry, despite its capacities, can not take over the responsibility for the heating of the population. There is not enough power nor sufficient production capacities. The trouble is that other forms of energy can not cover the needs. Before sanctions were imposed, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia covered half of its needs by import. It imported about 80 percent of petroleum and nearly as much natural gas; the coal from Kreka and Banovici was the idea of good heating. When it all came to a halt, officials were spreading optimism claiming that we could manage, instead of telling the people what to expect.

State rigs: The biggest and richest coal mines of the former Yugoslavia are located in the territory of the F.R. Yugoslavia. However, most of this coal is lignite which is suitable for burning in thermo-electric power plants located near the mines; only a small portion of coal found in F.R. Yugoslavia, insufficient for heating plants and individual heating, is quality coal. All these coal mines put together produce less than a million tonnes a year while 2.5 to 3 three million tonnes used to be bought in Bosnia. Higher quality kinds of lignite go to sugar industry, food industry and other kinds of industry while the lignite offered for mass consumption contains nearly 50 percent ballast (ash and humidity) and is sold under very unfavorable conditions. Although coal mines have not raised prices since January last year, consumers are not choosing this option. The paradox is that a tonne of coal at Kolubara, tax included, costs 26 Dinars, and 40 kilometers from there, in Belgrade, it costs 120 Dinars. In some places in Vojvodina, its price reaches 200 Dinars.

Petroleum and its products are yet another story. It is practically impossible to buy heating oil or mazout because there are none. The heating plants are awaiting state distribution with empty tanks. As the heating season approaches, most heating plants do not know how to provide mazout or gas. Authorities obviously expected the lifting of sanctions and free import, and they received no import at all. Some ministers and government officials are said to be dreading the speculators to whom the smuggling of fuels was entrusted, because the deliveries have not been paid. The U.N. Sanctions Committee showed its efficiency by ordering the neighboring countries to prevent delivery of petroleum products, probably as additional pressure on the talks which are in process. A sudden raise in petroleum product prices sold on the streets is due to stricter control and only indirectly to speculation. If it goes on in this way, the people who sell petrol on the streets will soon resemble petrol stations - the stations and salesmen are there but without petrol. There will be little gas for heating, especially since food industry is busiest at this time of year and sowing is to follow.

If Hungary persists in preventing the delivery of natural gas, the overall situation will get even worse. All of Vojvodina is practically heated by gas and so is Belgrade. There will be hardly any heating without imported gas, which will put additional pressure on electricity consumption and cause new problems for the electric power industry.

Although the heating season is about to begin, no one wants to claim with certainty what the heating will be like this winter. Officials have not yet made the monthly energy balances or prescribed the dates and temperatures. Energy industry can not fulfill the needs. Meteorologists are not making long-term weather forecasts, and we all know that a lot depends on the length and harshness of the winter. In the past three winters under the embargo, the skies seemed to have had mercy on us. The winters were mild and did not last long. This may be one of the reasons why we withdrew. Some people believe that the coming winter will be like the previous ones, others doubt that we will be lucky for the fourth winter in a row. And we will need is luck, especially since no part of the program adopted by the government this spring has been carried out. The government proposed that timber and coal be cheaper and sold in installments, that heating plants, electric power plants and coals carry out repairs, prepare stocks for winter, fill up the tanks and depots and that necessary quantities be imported in advance. Not only has little of this been carried out, but the situation is likely to be worse than last year. Although it is no comfort, one should bear in mind that the war-ravaged parts of the former Yugoslavia have been living without heating and electricity for four years, or more accurately, that these amenities of civilization are very rare there. We can survive without heating, of course not all of us. There will be illnesses and problems. The question is why the population is depriving itself of the amenities of civilization - not only heating, of course.