Belgrade-Zagreb Via Erdut

Modest progress within the moderate satisfaction of the negotiators is one possible description of the agreement reached in Erdut on October 3 by negotiators for the republic of Croatia and local Serbs in Eastern Slavonija, Baranja and Western Srem. They agreed upon the basic principles of a future agreement on the area.

Direct Serb-Croat talks on the status of Eastern Slavonija have been under preparation for a long time with a lot of speculation on official Belgrade's stand.

One thing is certain. The Eastern Slavonija Serbs depend completely on Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, i.e. his assessment of what he can win for them within the US peace initiative.

Realists claim Milosevic has long been aware that an internationally acceptable solution can not be found outside Croatia's internationally recognized borders but no one wants the Croatian army (HV) on the banks of the Danube for as long as the Bosnia war continues. So he intends to use Eastern Slavonija as a buffer zone even through the international community. Once the issue is resolved the mutual recognition of FR Yugoslavia and Croatia won't seem like a defeat but a normal thing.

As part of the agreement on Eastern Slavonija, the Serbs recognized Croatia's borders in principle. Now Zagreb faces a dilemma: should the area be given a wide scope of autonomy to solve the problem of most of the Krajina refugees or should it accept their return home and leave Eastern Slavonija without any autonomy. If it accepts their return, Zagreb has to change its constitution to include minority rights on self-rule in Knin and Glina. That article was suspended by the Croatian parliament because, an official statement said, the number of Serbs in Croatia fell to under 8%.

The way things are now, Croatia's leaders would rather skip both solutions. But there are signals that international pressure is forcing them to compromise. It still isn't clear what Belgrade will insist on: the return of Krajina refugees to their homes or Serb autonomy in Eastern Slavonija. Autonomy is a priority, at least judging by statements from Eastern Slavonija leaders. Judging by statements from JUL (a party close to the Serbian president) leaders the return of refugees is the first priority.

The next round of talks has been scheduled for October 9 in Zagreb. Croatia will try to profit from Milosevic's impatience to get the sanctions lifted and some sources said the agreement must come before the UN mandate expires on November 30. Manovic and his negotiators are trying to drag things out and have already proposed a number of new things. Everyone agrees that the talks will be long and hard amid a mood of total mistrust and with both sides trying to outplay each other but that a solution to the issue depends mainly on the way in which the war in former Yugoslavia will end.

ANTRFILE

11 points

An abridged version of the text of agreement reached by Croatian government and Eastern Slavonija Serb negotiators:

1. A transitional period of unspecified duration has been defined;

2. The UN Security Council will establish temporary authorities during that period. They will include "mechanisms to represent the interests of the Croatian government and local Serbs, refugees, displaced persons from Croatia who should return and ethnic minorities";

3. International forces will be stationed in the region during the transitional period "to enforce the peace and the implementation of the agreement". The area will also be demilitarized during that period;

4. The temporary authorities will ease the return of refugees and undertake measures to reestablish Croatian services (phones, post, banks, passports etc.);

5. The temporary authorities will set up a temporary police which will include Serbs, Croats and local ethnic minorities;

6. Human rights and basic liberties will be strictly respected at all levels throughout the republic of Croatia;

7. Refugees and displaced persons, citizens of Croatia, regardless of their nationality, will be given the freedom to live safely in their homes;

8. Illegally confiscated property will be returned to all Croatian citizens or fair compensation will be paid;

9. These rights should be guaranteed to all Croatian citizens regardless of their ethnic origins;

10. The international community will guarantee the conditions of the final agreement and protection of human rights. That includes international inspectors to oversee the implementation of the agreement during a period that will be defined later;

11. Once the transitional period expires local elections will be held.