Kosovo Issue - Serbian Answers

Kosovo - until recently a priority subject on Yugoslavia's political stage - has now been pushed to the background. Kosovo plans are being written in the shadow of Bosnian and Croatian ones. What solutions to the "Kosovo issue" are offered by the citizens of Serbia is a question the agency Argument sought an answer to as well.

Two hundred citizens in all electoral units (except Kosovo) randomly chosen were polled. According to their national structure, the pollees were mostly Serbs and Montenegrin (89%), others (7%), Hungarians (3%) and undeclared (1%). In view of such a structure of the pollees, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the answers in this public opinion poll represent the Serbian view of the Kosovo problem.

Although the pollsters assess that the problem of Kosovo is currently suppressed and is increasingly acquiring the characteristic of a taboo, the fear to discuss this subject was not very expressed in the poll. To the question whether they would agree not to be anonymous, nearly one-fourth of the pollees answered affirmatively, while 76 refused contact, which is less than the average of refusals in phone opinion polls.

CRISIS: The number of optimists and pessimists is about the same: 54.5% maintain that "the resolution of the crisis in our country is on the horizon" while 40% believe the contrary. By analyzing the replies, the pollsters concluded that optimism grows with the age of the polled citizens: the oldest population gave the most optimistic replies about the possibilities of resolving the crisis. Nearly 70 percent (68.2%) of citizens over 60 who were polled gave an optimistic answer, while less than one-third of the pollees of their age (27.3%) said they did not see a way to resolve the crisis. On the other hand, over one half (59.3%) of the citizens between 18 and 30 years of age did not believe the crisis would be resolved soon, while only one-third maintained the opposite.

LIFE TOGETHER: Forty percent of Serbia's population maintains that life together with ethnic Albanians in the same state is impossible, while 54.5 percent believe the opposite. Out of the youngest population, 38.8% believe life together is possible, while over one-half (55.6%) do not think so. It is interesting that their parents (pollees between 46 and 60 years of age) do not share their opinions. As opposed to the pollees who could be their sons, over half of them (55.6%) believe Serbs and Albanians can live together, while 40.7% think they would be better off in an ethnically pure state. The eldest age group (over 60) shows the highest level of tolerance; 72.7% of them are convinced that life in a multi-ethnic state is possible, while 22.7% believe it is not.

WAR: The pollees were asked an additional question: "Is there a possibility of a war breaking out in Kosovo?" Forty-two percent of the polled citizens answered affirmatively, while 49% believe there is no chance of it breaking out.

To the question who would begin such a war, most, i.e. 45.2% believe it might be begun by the ethnic Albanians. Almost a third (28.6%) believes it might be initiated by "someone abroad", while only 4.8% of Serbia's citizens think the Serbs might launch it. By analyzing the replies, it transpires that the younger people (51.9%) and as many pollees the age of their parents anticipate or fear that war will break out. Over one-half (52.3%) of those over 60 do not believe war will break out, while one-third of their peers share the opinion of the younger generations and think war is possible.

HUMAN RIGHTS: Seventeen percent of the pollees believe Kosovo is part of a legal state guaranteeing human rights to all its citizens, while one-fourth is of the opposite opinion and declares that the human rights of ethnic Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo are equally endangered. The fact that most pollees (52%) are of the opinion that only the human rights of Serbs are violated in Kosovo comes as no surprise. The vast majority believes that everything is alright with the Kosovo Albanians' human rights, and merely 1.5% believes that their rights are violated. 65.5% of the pollees support the preventive repression reflected in the excessive presence of police in Kosovo, 21% think that the presence of such a force in Kosovo is unnecessary, while 13% did not reply to the question. The fact that the vast majority of polled citizens, as many as 81.5%, think that ethnic Albanian children in Kosovo have the right to education in their mother tongue may be confusing but can also be interpreted differently. Sixteen percent of the polled citizens deny the ethnic Albanians' right to education in their mother tongue, while 2.5% of them have no opinion about it.

TALKS: The Ministry of the Interior, however, can not resolve all problems, and negotiations are necessary. It may come as a surprise that as many as 66.5% of Serbia's citizens maintain that talks between Milosevic and ethnic Albanian leader Ibrahim Rugova are necessary, while 25.5% believe they are not. Most of the pollees (57.1%) believe that both sides would have to make concessions at such talks, one-third maintain that only Rugova should make concessions, while only 9% believe that Milosevic should make a concession or two to Rugova.

Finally, the poll asked the following question: "Do you think that the settlement of refugees from Krajina is increasing the chance of war?" To this question, 23.5% gave a positive answer, while the majority (59.5%) replied that the settlement of refugees in Kosovo was not aggravating tensions. 6.5% pollees saw no connection between the refugees and war in Kosovo, while 10.5% did not reply to the question.

Serbs and Ethnic Albanians

The following two tables show how Serbia's citizens think the Kosovo issue should be resolved:

"In what way do ethnic Albanians in Kosovo want to resolve their national issue?"

Independent state 30%

Annexation to Albania 22.5%

Autonomy within Serbia 12%

Other 23.5%

No reply 12%

"How do Serbs mean to resolve the Kosovo issue"

Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia, Albanians equal to Serbs 62%

Albanians should leave Kosovo 17%

Kosovo as part of Serbia, special laws for Albanians 4.5%

Other 9%

No reply 7.5%