Clinton of Bosnia

If, during the two days in which the truce was postponed, Bosnian Serbs lost Mrkonjic Grad, Sanski Most and Kljuc, it would not be difficult to calculate how many days they would need to lose Banja Luka and everything else. If the Muslims and Croats are doing so well, will they not be tempted to make up an excuse and continue the postponement? Even General Mladic would have to have military understanding for such behavior. Therefore, if even the ones who have signed this last truce do not know for sure whether there shall be one at all, why should I pretend to be a prophet? But the devil will not let me be, and instead of leaving room for all possibilities, here I am, ready to prove how this time things have really reached the end.

I do not believe that there will be a great battle for Banja Luka, although there are many good reasons for it. Primarilly, Mladic's confused army could lose that battle very quickly, while the Muslims and Croats would find it difficult to deprive themselves of victory and revenge. They have no reason to worry whether Serbia will be drawn into war, because even if it wished to, it could not. All they could do from here was to hide behind private initiative and send Arkan's volunteers, and even they did not change anything. When an army starts to show signs of confusion and begins to fall apart, it is obviously incredibly difficult to pull it back together again. The Serbs have grown accustomed to a merry war against weaker arms, and are paying the price of holding too big a territory for too long, for having known that they would have to give some of it back, but not knowing which. Therefore, every soldier who was sick of the war could think that he was chosen to lose his life foolishly, defending something that has already been exchanged and handed over.

The Muslims and the Croats do not have to fear NATO bombing, since they would have to go through the whole procedure of making such a decision, which the Serbs managed to extract only after three years. If they started off towards Banja Luka, they would anger Clinton and most probably ruin the chances for the aforeplanned sight of his handshake with Milosevic in front of the White House. Namely, he would not dare pronounce the loss of Banja Luka and additional hundreds of thousands of refugees as another victory of his peace policy.

Yet Izetbegovic and Tudjman might believe that the whole thing could be accomplished quickly, and presented to America and to Europe as an even better result, as a complete triumph of justice, democracy and civilization over fascism, communism and oriental tyranny backed by Russia. Everybody here believes in easy and elegant military victories, as well as in their mission of defenders of European civilization. In reality, everything would turn out differently. Europe evidently does not need such defenders. Therefore, Tudjman's Croatia today resembles a disfigured, monstrous degenerate more than a Western civilization's legal offspring. Still, the Serbs would show great wisdom if they finally stopped acting as Russia's client and groundlessly threatening global conflicts.

The Muslim and Croat army has arrived within range of Banja Luka, they are well armed, resentful and larger than the Serbian one, and a motive for the cessation of the cease-fire can always be found. Despite everything, I believe it shall not come to that. That could lead to the biggest and most atroscious battle of the whole war at the exact moment when Clinton has promised his voters that he shall settle all disputes. There are hundreds of thousands of civilians in Banja Luka which the army will not let out. If the city shall not be able to defend itself differently, the command shall at least make sure of civilians suffering, to see Who's Who on CNN.

Banja Luka would share Sarajevo's destiny, and anybody who believes that Sarajevo can and should be avenged in such a way is very wrong. Certain rational boundaries of revenge exist, and they have to be respected even in the Balkans, at least in the measure in which powerful and well managed countries influence operations here. Nobody took out their revenge on the Germans by placing them into gas chambers.

I still feel a vague uneasiness that certain forces exist which would like to destroy this American effort of settling global Balkan circumstances. What if behind the devilishly well organized assassination attempt on Kiro Gligorov lies a hand that could pull similar strings in Bosnia? Or in Kosovo? Or in Belgrade? But, since I do not know in which direction to point my finger, it is better to stop now and forget about conspiracy theories, until I am in possession of stronger arguments, lest I find myself in bad company.

Therefore, the war shall be stopped at Banja Luka's gates, which shall continue to be kept under pressure and separated from its natural environment, like many Bosnian cities before it. That should, in peace, given time, goad the bristling population to start looking over the ethnic boundaries, to give in to all kinds of life's impulses, wherever that may take them. Certainly, everyone in the future shall be a lot more careful about mixed marriages, but one day, who knows... The follies of youth.

If our starting point is hope that the killing will stop, we must consider where that will take us. Does that mean that shortly it will be impossible to steal and lie? Is this American peace threatening to take us to the point where we shall forfeit all of our habits and the very essence of our being? I am afraid that the answer is affirmative, and as for Serbia, it has found itself at a major crossroad. Milosevic could carry on as before, he could continue to beat around the bush and be tactical, to control everything that can be controlled and to occasionally simulate changes by moving his personnel around. He could even go a step further in the same direction, if by any chance he decides to listen to the seductive voice of his wife, which would make him forget the idea of private enterprise, yet he would not forget to tighten the loose reigns of the media.

That would lead to the survival of the established order of stealing and lying. As everybody is well acquainted with, especially the big idealists from the Yugoslav United Left, there are no better conditions for stealing than those provided by a system in which public property is placed above the means of production. The number of social parasites is immeasurably higher than in any capitalistic system, and no one is capable of establishing who lives off whom. And when that system is combined with a dosage of private enterprise, the person who holds power can in the shortest time provide wonderfully for oneself, family, friends and sympatizers as well as for their children and grandchildren.

Such theft is impossible without tremendous lies, which are handled by the press and television. Press like that is not to be found anywhere but in gangster and scoundrel states. They supplement each other very effectively and are in perfect accord, but for some reason, such a system has perished and become extinct, leaving Serbia prominently sticking out, even on the Balkans, even in comparison to Montenegro. And it is no easy task and it does not pay to stick out in such a way for long.

Therefore, when Milosevic rings me to ask me what to do, I will tell him to listen to his wife, nod his head and act contrarily. He will say how he understands why he should, in principle, agree to private enterprise. He expects the sanctions to be lifted soon, and when he starts off collecting loans, everybody will first ask him where his reforms, transitions, private enterprise, market economy and similar miracles are. That could be set in motion, only to be slowly dragged on and eluded, and besides, his people have already had the best piece of private enterprise.

But, he will ask me, why would he have to leave the press alone, when he knows that they would only start accusing him of this and that. Is it not better and more useful for them to continue to lie about his consistent peace efforts, to uncover their enemies all over the world, to crush the opposition, to flatter the people and tell them only what they want to hear, and to hide all that angers and upsets them? Is there anything wrong in having people think that they are better than they are, that they are better off than they are and that he is better than he is, the president will ask sincerely. How will they vote for him again if the press constantly attacks him, and is there anybody who would lead this country better than him now when he has learned such a lot and has gotten to know the world?

Difficult questions. I hope I will have time to think about the answers before the president calls me, yet I am afraid that he is more inclined to listen to his wife's advice.