Midnight Truces

Such is the situation on the day (October 11) when the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Bosnian Serb Republic (RS), Dr Aleksa Buha, and the Minister for Relations with the UN Peace Force of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Hasan Muratovic, signed a document on a cease-fire. Following that, the commanders in chief of the warring parties issued formal orders to their troops for the cessation of "all activities apart form defensive ones". The cease-fire commenced at a minute past midnight, October 12, it is expected to last sixty days and according to the latest news prior to this issue, it is mostly being held to.

WAR AND NEGOTIATIONS: In September, almost half of the Serb-held Bosnian Krajina territories were taken over by the Croat-Muslim troops. The offensive was launched simultaneously with NATO air strikes on the Serb's military installations and infrastructure. Preceding it, an Agreement in Geneva (September 8) where a 51:49 territorial split of Bosnia and Herzegovina was agreed, which was terminated more or less at the moment of the New York Agreement (September 26) on the modalities of linking the two entities. Following that, the agenda called for a cease-fire, as the basis for concluding a lasting peace agreement.

The warring parties have in the meantime, expecting unpleasant and difficult negotiations with a lot of pressure, continued their military actions to enable them to start off with as many trump cards as possible. In the Bosnian - Herzegovinian war that equals larger territory. Therefore the commander of the Bosnian Serb Army (BSA), General Ratko Mladic, returned to Banja Luka following the stabilization of his kidney condition which was treated in Belgrade. He announced the arrest of officers who were responsible for recent serious losses and a counter-offensive launch. They had initial success: his troops were moving towards Bosanska Krupa, even managing to enter into a part of Kljuc. Throughout it all, he was aided by Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan and his Serbian Volunteer Guard. Some believe that the Serbs owe their success to a partial withdrawal of the Croat Army (HV) following pressures from America. The general assesment being that it was not a question of a significant shift in the war zone.

At the same time, the BIH Army did not rest either. They continued their offensive actions with varying luck on the mountains of Treskavica, Ozren and around Doboj, as well as in other war zones.

And then, following innumerable consultations of the American Deputy Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke in Belgrade, Zagreb and Sarajevo, US President Bill Clinton announced that an agreement had been reached on a cease-fire which is to become effective at midnight on October 10. Somehow at the same time a significant increase of the Croat troops in Western Bosnia was noted.

WAR AND CONDITIONS: If the cease-fire for the Bosnian Serbs, after everything that had befallen them in the last couple of months, seems to be equal to salvation or at least to a rest at a critical moment, that can in no way be said for the Bosnian Muslims or the Croats. Encouraged by their victories, this cease-fire seems to knock completely attainable goals from their hands. In the first place, the Muslims and Croats have taken over Mrkonjic Grad and thus completely consolidated the "Avnoj road" which connects the Bihac pocket with central Bosnia. Following that, if war luck carried them through, it would be possible to seriously threaten Banja Luka, which would practically lead to a complete downfall of Serbian negotiation positions.

Which is most likely the reason why Muslim conditions for the signing of the cease-fire followed. Specifically: the delivery of gas and electricity to Sarajevo. True, since the gas in question is Russian, and Moscow is demanding around 100 million US Dollars of their unsettled debt for previous deliveries from the BIH authorities, this could be interpreted as pressure on Russia as being very anxious to conclude a truce. Namely, if it is concluded, negotiations for the delivery of gas can be prolonged which is of no small importance for the oncoming winter in Sarajevo. However, this issue seems to be peripheral in comparison to the prospects of military gains.

In these circumstances, following Clinton's announcement of a truce, a Muslim-Croat offensive was relaunched on Mrkonjic Grad and Sanski Most. Following fierce artillery operations (Serbian sources state that, for example, on October 10th over 10,000 shells fell on Sanski Most, which experts believe to be an exaggeration) the BSA abandoned these cities. The announcement of the General Staff of the BSA merely stated that they had withdrawn to better positions. However, the Muslim-Croat troops did not stop. They continued their advances to the north of Mrkonjic Grad, and as stated by unofficial sources, have reached the hydroelectric power station Beocac. Also, according to the same sources, the village of Dabrac has been taken over, from which artillery fire was opened on to Krupa na Vrbasu and Karanovac. The detonations were heard in Banja Luka where a rumor spread that the Muslim and Croat troops managed to take over Sitnica na Manjaci from which they could shell that city.

Further, it is stated that Bosnian Serbs have been made to retreat to some six kilometers northeast of Sanski Most.

Mainly, the balance being as follows: the valley of Vrbas which leads to Banja Luka is open to the Muslim and Croat troops which, apart from Prijedor, is the only bigger city in western Bosnia in Serb hands.

ACTUAL COLLAPSE: It is uncertain whether the cease-fire will hold. Warnings have already started coming from Sarajevo that, unless a road towards Gorazde is opened during the next ten days, the truce will be forgotten. It seems that the Bosnian Serbs have weakened to such an extent that their military collapse does not seem impossible to anybody.

According to unofficial sources from Banja Luka, the leadership of the RS was, during the time of the greatest movement of the Muslim-Croat offensive, in constant contact with President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic. It states that it has been pointed out to him that the situation was extremely difficult and dramatic, that the authorities would not be able to control the people if they start running away, and they have demanded that the armed forces of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia make an announcement concerning the difficult situation in the war zone. The same source states that Nikola Koljevic has warned Milosevic that, unless the offensive is stopped in the next 36 hours, it could bring about a total collapse of the RS.

While the collapse of all that it was based on has actually already happened. Territories on which Serbs had been living for centuries have been lost, the humanitarian situation is catastrophic - not only for the 200,000 refugees, but also for the inhabitants which receive it in their homes - and the future does not bode well. A state that was based on almost exclusive ethnic cleansing has reached a point where it has to pay back its credit raised in blood from Prijedor in 1992 to Srebrenica in 1995. Therefore, the protests of the President of the RS Parliament, Momcilo Krajisnik, by which he opposes the arrival of NATO forces in BIH for controlling the truce or his demands to enlarge the corridor in Bosnian Posavina by 20 kilometers seem almost tragicomical.

At this moment, the Bosnian Serbs are relying on the international community which beforehand they had blamed for everything rather than on their own forces to prevent their utter collapse. In that context, they can hope that Serbia's and Croatia's spheres of interest, similar to the ones presented by a prominent Croat military analyst, retired General Karl Gornisek, have attainable strongpoints in reality.