Summit in Ohio

The US is facing a problem, stated agencies towards the middle of last week. The problem was to find a suitable location for a summit on Bosnia which has reached such proportions that a team of experts was formed for its solution, headed by the Deputy Secretary of State Patrick Kennedy. Namely, even on the vast American expanse it was not easy to find a location (prior to the final choice it was called "location X") on which, under approximately equal conditions, Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic were to be accommodated - not to mention the co-presidents of the summit Richard Holbrooke, Karl Bildt and Igor Ivanov, members of the delegation, representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, UN, people in charge of protocol, security, official and unofficial escorts, seen and unseen spectators - and from which journalists can efficiently be eliminated. The Americans are well known for their large teams which prepare such negotiations - there are first, second and third echelons of political scientists, lawyers, specialists for geography, linguists and other experts. The only uncertainty being which of the Bosnian Serbs shall be a part of Milosevic's delegation, if he decides to take one of them along at all.

The accommodation of the three presidents and the elimination of journalists is of extreme political importance for the "Camp David" model of negotiations, which was chosen for this occasion. The key word being what in diplomacy is referred to as "proximity talks". The term "proximity talks" was first used when describing the Arab-Israeli negotiations held in a certain New York hotel more than a decade ago. An agreement was reached even though the two delegations did not find themselves in the same room even once. The duration of the summit has not been determined. Izetbegovic and Milosevic have promised to stay in Dayton until all talks are completed, while Tudjman shall occasionally be relieved by Mate Granic (a concession towards Tudjman's electoral duties at home).

"SHUTTLE-DIPLOMACY": Assuming that the summit on Bosnia commences on October 31 in Ohio and waits for the diplomatic and protocol mists to lift, the fact remains that the US intend, in due course for them, to tie up a peace agreement and dispatch their troops to Bosnia. The Washington meeting shall play a major role in that respect, and shall most likely be crucial, but the real business will undoubtedly be carried out before that, even before the negotiations in Ohio, so that the actual summit shall not contribute to it much nor shall it change it. The most important issues are being decided now, in informal bilateral contacts, over breakfasts and dinners, on walks in the parks, as is usually the case in diplomacy. Holbrooke's shuttle diplomacy has already accomplished a number of things, so that experienced observers estimate that the Americans, when they gather the three presidents in the Wright-Peterson air base in Dayton, shall present them with a fait accompli. They shall offer them a solution which is in most parts finalized, and Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic shall be left some room for less important negotiations. Namely, if they would let them start negotiations on major issues from the beginning - who knows how long they would last and if and when they would be finished. And they absolutely must be finished. Shortly, the peace agreement shall provide a chance to announce the obligations of the warring parties and of the international community, and especially for simulating spectacular diplomatic success of those countries which have for such a long time and so obviously been brought to shame in the former Yugoslavia. Elections are coming up in America and Russia, therefore, things need to be resolved quickly, even if left with unfinished details essential for the true functioning of life in Bosnia. There are quite a few of those "details" - from the status of Sarajevo, the widening of the Brcko corridor, the fate of Gorazde, to defining the level of centralization of the future Bosnia and Herzegovina - which Serbs will oppose as much as possible, and for which - with no lesser intensity - Moslems will fight. The territorial limits have still not been achieved, and the borders of the entities must be established so that it could be ascertained where to deploy NATO forces. It is estimated that Serbs now hold less than 49 percent of the territory, and it is fairly certain to assume that no one shall bring their percentage up, although, of course, it is possible that certain territories shall be exchanged by mutual consent.

If the future peace agreement - or agreements - are viewed from a wider perspective, it must first be established what the strategical interests of the leading world powers are in this region today. According to a former high Yugoslav diplomat, we can no longer talk about a struggle for the spheres of influence, since that manner of building up one power in rivalry with the other has been superseded by the cessation of colonialism and the cold war. Russia today cannot wrestle with the Western world in the Balkans, nor does it need to, since it no longer borders it and is primarily interested in resolving its relations with other former Soviet republics and in its partnership with the US. The goal of the important international factors therefore is peace, be it imposed willingly or by force. When peace shall be established, it will be guarded by strong NATO forces, which have no other interest (since they have no rivals on this terrain) except to prevent the demolishment of anything in this sensitive part of Europe at the moment when Europe is to start off on another route, and America is to deal with other affairs.

CARTER, SADAT, BEGIN: The American president, chosen from the ranks of the Democratic Party, is in his third year of office during which he has not remarkably stood out neither on the domestic nor international plan. Public opinion does not especially favor him, and next year an extremely difficult battle with the influential Republican counter-candidate awaits him. His advisors believe that he desperately needs a foreign-affairs triumph which will increase his prestige both abroad and at home. The president chooses the most sensitive conflict in the world and offers the opposed parties his personal mediation in the peace talks which are to be held on American soil. The leaders of the conflicting parties have agreed, although the party in the conflict which America has been backing is showing a lot less interest in attaining peace, since luck has lately been their companion in the war zone.

Everything fits perfectly, yet this is not a story about Bill Clinton in 1995 and of his Balkan peace initiative. This is a story about Jimmy Carter in 1978 and his Middle East initiative, a story about the famous peace agreement between Egypt and Israel, which, in September of that year, in Camp David, was signed by Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin. The stories are so similar that it probably pains Clinton's aides. Namely, Jimmy Carter really managed to reconcile century-old enemies in the Middle East, yet he still missed the target. He lost the elections the following year, and public opinion polls showed that Carter's political prestige following the signing of the peace agreement in Camp David was marked by a hardly visible, negligible increase. This diplomatic triumph did not come as an advantage in the elections, although a poll seven years later, in 1985, conducted by the New York Times showed that American citizens, regardless of their party membership, remember Camp David as an extremely successful American foreign-affairs initiative. Which is, most likely, one of the reasons why the Serb-Croat-Moslem meeting on top level on October 31 shall be held in the Wright-Peterson air base outside of Dayton in the state of Ohio. The current American administration is obviously holding back on too strong an exploitation of the Camp David symbols. In America, they try to use what history they have with as much taste and measure, and according to some, the meeting on which Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic shall divide Bosnia up, which goes against all of the principles America had until now stood for, would abuse this historic and geographic location.

Milosevic, Izetbegovic and Tudjman shall not be honored by being accommodated in the presidential residence. The Americans claim that they shall be settled into the general's apartments which are suitable for heads of states, and we should take their word for it, but the fact remains that these gentlemen shall find themselves behind barbed wire, far away from the inquisitive crowds, surrounded by around 25 thousand military and civilian employees of the biggest air base in America which extends to around 3,000 hectares. The base was named for the brothers Wright, which had, in nearby Dayton, constructed a plane, and Lieutenant Frank Peterson, a pilot who lost his life in 1918. From the organizer's point of view, it is suitable since it is only an hour's flight away from Washington, where announcements will be issued as well as all other information in connection to the summit. Praising the location, the hosts were trying to win over the future tenants of the Wright-Peterson base with information on the exceptional recreational conditions, tennis and golf courses which will be at the disposal of the Serbian, Croat and Moslem delegation, which shall, without a doubt, delight all members of Milosevic's, Izetbegovic's and Tudjman's team who engage in these sports in their spare time. The conference center is only a two minute walk away from the three future presidential residences.

PRESSURES AND ADVANTAGES: The American school of diplomacy teaches that one of the lessons of Camp David is that the third year in term is not a good time for major foreign-affairs initiatives, due to the fact that presidents, under the dictate of time, fall under the "take what you can" psychology. They want victory at almost any price and, in the race for success of any kind, they miss chances for a lasting agreement. It is interesting to note that the organization of the Dayton summit includes a Camp David veteran - the Secretary General of the UN, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who was a member of the Egyptian delegation in 1978. It remains noted that Boutros-Ghali, before and after Camp David, was vainly trying to include a solution for the Palestinian issue in the bilateral Egyptian-Israeli agreement, fearing that Egypt will be excluded from the Arab world if it "betrays" the Palestinians. His endeavors were not given enough support neither from the Americans nor from Anwar Sadat, who, following the anger of his compatriots due to the betrayal of the Palestinians, lost his life. In the meantime, Boutros-Ghali has changed a few functions, and the Palestinian issue is still on today's agenda.

Bill Clinton has no intention of repeating Camp David, i.e. Carter's role in the historical agreement of the Egyptians and Palestinians, and not only because he does not have a special relationship with any of the leaders of the three conflicting parties as Carter had with Sadat. The Republicans have already started accusing him of turning to Bosnia only in order to improve his chances at the election, and that, therefore, his peacemaking is cynical and hypocritical. He shall partially distance himself from such accusations by handing the leading role over to Christopher and Holbrooke. Other state officials, and not him, shall spend hours in Ohio pleading and threatening Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic.

It is not a question of Clinton's being afraid of failure in Dayton. Such a possibility is not even taken into consideration in Washington, as clearly seen by Christopher's words in Congress that negotiations shall be held, even if Eastern Slavonija and Bosnian Krajina are being devoured by flames. Foreign-affairs are, traditionally, presidential territory. Congress cannot do much there, even an hostile Congress with a Republican majority, like the one Clinton has to deal with. The president does not need approval from Capital Hill to, with the usual spectacular pomp, meet with Boris Yeltsin, for example. What is of even greater significance, he shall not need that approval even for the deployment of 25 thousand Americans to the Bosnian gorges.

Milosevic: "I am not a priest"

The New York Times, in their Thursday, October 19 issue, carry a statement of an American official who claims that the talks in Ohio shall last over seven days. In Roger Cohen's report from Sarajevo, Slobodan Milosevic's alleged statement following news that talks shall be held in the American midwest is quoted: "What? You intend to keep me locked up in Dayton, Ohio? For your information, I am not a priest!". Cohen claims that the reaction of the French displayed similar disappointment.