Karadzic, Mladic, Even Arkan

Slobodan Milosevic is defending himself with all means available, which we know are not small. The main source of information about that heroic defence is assistant US Secretary of State, Richard Holbrooke, the frenetic and colorful US negotiator whose wife said "he lives, breathes and eats Bosnia". When the Srebrenica scandal broke over the 2,000-6,000 missing Moslems presumed killed by order of or in the presence of General Ratko Mladic, Holbrooke started talking. He is a man who says there are no minor disputes in the Balkans; every topic of discussion is big. The size of the topic (the greatest war crime in Europe since Stalin's death Holbrooke said of Srebrenica) is really big. The mess began when survivors of mass shootings appeared: those men testified that Bosnian Serb Army (BSA) commander General Ratko Mladic was there. That served to supplement existing intelligence and European observers conveyed a short but clear message to the Bosnian Serbs a month ago: Find yourselves a new general, we don't want to see this one any more.

Holbrooke directly blamed Mladic and added that "Milosevic is one of three key people in achieving peace in the region and everyone agrees that he has to take part in the talks".

In the time it took Milosevic to fly from Belgrade to the Wright-Peterson base outside Dayton, the American press prepared a reception that was frightening: Lawrence Eagleburger, former Ambassador to Belgrade and former Secretary of State under the Bush administration, hurried to tell Reuter news agency that he has been "justifiably suspected" and is a candidate for the war crimes Tribunal in The Hague: "there is a category of facts that is doubtless: the facts of political and command responsibility for crimes against humanity". Some influential papers accused Milosevic of controlling the army and para-militaries that committed the crimes. Holbrooke said there is no firm evidence to tie Milosevic in with the events, that Milosevic distanced himself publicly and privately from the Srebrenica massacre because he realized it would pollute everyone who came in contact with it and there is no hard evidence. John Shatak, US assistant Secretary of State for human rights, interviewed Srebrenica survivors and said Milosevic promised that the international community would get access to the site of the massacres.

Then the New York Times questioned Holbrooke about Milosevic : Roger Cohen asked about the killing of several hundred Moslems and Croats in northern Bosnia (October 6-12). Holbrooke asked Milosevic if he could control Arkan whose armed formations were suspected of those crimes and who US intelligence agencies say has been working for the Serbian security services since the late 1980s. Milosevic protested sharply, insisting that he not only does not control Arkan but that the para-military commander would kill him if he got the chance.

It's clear that the bill has come. Milosevic is now faced with a choice that one US official described to the NY Times as: "If forced to choose between Greater Serbia and Greater Slobodan, there's no doubt what Milosevic will choose. He now sees Serbia as a prosperous little gateway to Europe and he needs peace to achieve that."

But, Milosevic knows how to bargain. Days and weeks of hard bargaining are expected in Dayton about percentages, burned out remote areas, constitutional arrangements, the return of refugees, money and loans and autonomies. For example: an American official told the NY Times that Milosevic promised them that when peace comes Karadzic will lose the elections and Mladic will be dismissed and all by the will of the Bosnian Serb people. The Americans know who they're dealing with; they know that local Balkan artists will sign anything just to get out of a tight spot and buy themselves a few more months of fun. Milosevic and Tudjman immediately agreed on Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Srem to everyone's satisfaction without any problems. The big question is will that small concession on an irrelevant topic fool the Americans. They know that Milosevic's options are wearing thin and that they can play around for as long as they like because they've reached the essence of everything: Sloba's personal power for which he is prepared to sacrifice more than just a few war criminals.