The Decisive Proof Of Futility

Some of the foreign observers deem that, when all the circumstances are taken into account, the new chief of the United Nations, Mr. Boutros Ghali, has made a courageous decision, i.e. a risky one. Although I believe that the decision-making int that institution does not depend on one individual's bravery, the personality of Mr. Boutros Ghali may prove to be interesting and important for putting an end to this shameful situation of ours.

Mr. Ghali is a Copt, and those people are the descendants of the ancient Egyptians. Thus, if the Serbs or the Croats ever come to be dissatisfied with any of his gestures, we have ground to hope that they will not accuse him of being an upstart. Consequently, his ability to comprehend history, will not be doubted. Moreover, the Coptic Church is an Orthodox church (with its own peculiarities), and that has not gone unnoticed around here (an advantage for the Serbs?), but his political representative will be an Irishman, that is a Catholic or a Protestant (the man of the Croats?). The commander of the blue helmets should be an Indian (a Buddhist?), of whom is expected to be neutral and to be able to comprehend the ethnic problems, because he comes from a country inhabited by hundreds of different nations, speaking hundreds of diverse languages, but Croatia has already expressed its distrust, while Mr. Milosevic is content. For India, because of its own reasons, in principle does not favor secessionism.

Finally, Boutros Ghali turned out to be an acceptable and adequate person also because his long career covers the different periods of the Egyptian history. From Mr. Nasser's Soviet backed socialism to Mr. Sadat's and Mr. Mubarak's pro-Western regime. One can assume that nobody will be able to detect his ideological bias towards the differences between the local regimes, if there are any, and if anybody still cares about ideology. Besides, he must be very well acquainted with the Middle-Eastern ethnic and religious riddles, so he will not be surprised here.

One never knows, however, what else can be dug out in order to explain some of Mr. Ghali's allegedly one-sided moves in the future, but one can expect that the main sources of mistrust have been neutralized. The peace-keeping forces can come. The headquarters encharged with the reception and organization of everything that could prove to be necessary are being established, in both Belgrade and Zagreb. I believe that this operation will be full of edifying surprises for the local organizers. And I say so because of the following.

After the earthquake in Montenegro, an enormous "Hercules", carrying aid from the USA, landed on the Titograd airport. The local authorities have mobilized for that occasion the local youth and diverse kinds of volunteers to unload the airplane. But first, a platoon of soldiers ran out of the plane, cleared the way through all that crowd, and then the already loaded jeeps came out and hurried straight to the disaster areas.

And again, an advance guard will arrive first to get rid of the local organizers. If we have had been able to organize something, our country would not be in ruins today, the war would not be so chaotic and pointless, or perhaps there would not have been a war in the first place. Those encharged with the reception would do best if they could give up the idea of welcoming the blue helmets in the manner of good hosts, festively, with flowers and welcome speeches, with the expressions of gratitude dedicated to the liberators. For they, undoubtedly, have strict instructions to avoid any mixing with the local population and they know that they are nobody's liberators. Such will be their attitude from the beginning to the end, and I believe that their discipline and professionalism will disappoint many a local nubile.

The hosts will never get used to such guests, but they will have the opportunity to contemplate the smooth functioning of a well-organized mechanism, and in that sense, the blue helmets could also perform an educational role. Those who are separating the warring sides will try to depend on neither of them, i.e. they will be consuming only air and water from the local resources, although some private entrepreneur could sell them something that they have forgotten, and that wasn't brought from home. But, in any case, the local economy should not plan some major restructuring, counting on the presence of Mr. Boutros Ghali's soldiers.

I do not doubt at all the credibility of the interpretation of the peace keeping plan that the forces will stay "as long as it is necessary", and that will be decided by the Security Council without consultations with Mr. Tudjman. And what will be determining the length of their stay? In principle, it is clear that the troops will be arriving on the Croatian territory, although Belgrade, in its attempt to calm Mr. Milan Babic, claims that this question is still wide open. But the worst thing that the Croatian authorities can do for themselves is exactly what they are doing now. Namely, they are trying to convince their people and the world that what is to be done now is a mere transition of power and that the blue boys can go away practically after spending a single night there. Zagreb gives the impression that it is preparing to send a punitive expedition even before the peace keeping forces arrive, and any expression of impatience of that kind will represent a signal for Mr. Ghali to prolong the stay of his soldiers.

In order to actually complete his state, Tudjman will first have to renounce such cravings, which could prove to be too much for him. This means that Croatia could have to get another government, which will forgo the desire for revenge and which will be capable of conducting a very tolerant dialogue with the Serbs.

Considering the present situation, the negotiations will last for years, because the coming of the blue helmets is the only war goal that has been achieved by the Serbian side. For a long time it will be repeated that thousands of Serbs have died to reach that feat, and the blue helmets cannot go away just like that.

But Serbia itself will gradually begin to lose interest in dealing with these matters, and the problem will eventually become an internal affair of Croatia. The role of the negotiators will be taken by the local Serbs, and it will also be clear that it cannot be performed by any of the war lords, but by someone who realizes that peace does not depend on Belgrade anymore. The advent of the blue helmets marks the end of the dream of an all-Serbian state, and their departure will represent a proof that the Serbs in Croatia have realized that and that they have drawn the proper conclusions out of it.

It is supposed that this will be the largest and the most expensive operation in the history of the United Nations. We have certainly merited to break some kind of record, but this also means that the job will be done thoroughly and seriously. The headquarters of the said Indian general should be located in Sarajevo, with two branches in Belgrade and Zagreb, and that does not leave much opportunity for a war in Bosnia. They will be willing and will be able to see everything, they will be standing on every corner, keeping an eye on any suspicious move that we might make, until we get rid of every aggressive impulse that we have within ourselves and until we begin to exercise self-control.

Therefore, long talks and tense negotiations should take place in Bosnia, but this time with significantly reduced presence of Serbia and Croatia and with their weakened pressures, so some kind of solution will be found, eventually. Once the violence is excluded, the possibility of the changing of the borders remains very remote, but the future organization of this republic could prove to be very original, highly complicated and expensive. Weak central government, loosely guarded frontiers, some kind of cantonization with the same majority and minority problems, but this time on the micro level, combined with the appointment of the officials according to the rotation system of ruling based on ethnic belonging.

The United Nations will wish for the fastest possible completion of the whole undertaking, and those providing the necessary funds, principally the USA, will seek possible cost reductions. There will come a moment when all the Yugoslav parties will realize that it is much better to get some of the money (that is being spent on peace keeping) for their own purposes, offering in turn firm promises that the peace will be preserved by themselves alone. Then the Serbian and the Croatian heads will be ready to put on the blue helmets, a feat which can presently be achieved only by means of a lobotomy.

Some find the whole thing

extremely humiliating and think that the advent of the peace keeping forces represents the decisive proof of our lagging. I do not think that this lagging is especially big, and one should not be too affirmative in saying that this is the last war in the history of Europe. If that is the case, there is no reason for feeling inferior, although the West would comprehend us better if we had warred over tax rates, and not over borders.