Restless Partners

New Democracy (ND) deputies will submit a proposal to the Yugoslav parliament for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to join Partnership For Peace, ND leader Dusan Mihajlovic told the party's 6th program and election assembly on Saturday, December 8.

Mihajlovic told VREME that the ND will submit the proposal soon and that it "will undergo a certain procedure" which means it might not be included on session agendas but the ND wants to draw public attention and get the authorities to respond quickly. He assumes that the initiative will cause some tremors in the SPS and the army but doesn't believe it will be rejected.

Many feel that Mihajlovic is launching the proposal as a test for President Slobodan Milosevic but he claims that he hasn't tested the mood of neither the opposition or the authorities, only saying that he can read the Dayton agreement and that he is experienced enough to assess trends; in any case the SPS has titled its congress Serbia's Entry Into Europe.

Invoking the opinions of his associates who are analysts of transition and military issues, including retired General Milan Aksentijevic, Mihajlovic recalled that the situation is that all our neighbors, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and even Croatia and Bosnia, see solutions to their security in Partnership For Peace and that they have voted clearly in favor of European integration.

It seems that Yugoslavia is the only country that is formally outside those programs and Serbia and Montenegro are European and should cooperate with Europe in terms of the economy, politics and security. Bear in mind that in the 1950s Tito indirectly joined NATO through a military cooperation treaty with Greece and Turkey.

Asked if the sovereignty issue will gain dramatic proportions, Mihajlovic said that if the Netherlands don't mind losing sovereignty to NATO, we shouldn't mind Partnership For Peace. Partnership For Peace provides military and political cooperation with the US for member countries. None of the warring sides in the former Yugoslavia have been invited to join yet.

There has been some testing of the pro-European mood in Belgrade recently, feelings that were suppressed during the war. A NATO assembly delegation (members from Germany, Spain, Britain and Canada) met with a number of leading political figures, minority spokesmen, the authorities and others.

Their meeting with assistant federal foreign minister Zivadin Jovanovic, the federal foreign ministry said in a statement, "expressed expectations that FR Yugoslavia's full reintegration into international organizations, primarily the UN and OSCE, will come soon".

The talks with the NATO delegation, opposition sources said, were "open", whatever that means, with several questions being repeated; civil rights and liberties, a market economy, minority rights and internal security, primarily Kosovo. The official Yugoslav side defined the visit as "an initiative to continue the dialogue" and "an expression of the interest of the FRY to fully reintegrate into the international community". It also stressed that the delegation consider Kosovo a part of Serbia. Yugoslav officials reiterated that "the FRY constitution and laws guarantee minorities all rights in accord with the highest European standards", that those rights "are used by all minorities, expect the Albanians under the influence of the strong separatist movement".

A Tanjug report said that Radoman Bozovic, Speaker of the federal parliament, indicated that the problem will be resolved "through a dialogue between the authorities and representatives of the Albanian minority" which the NATO delegation lent support to.

The practically unchangeable constitution of Serbia (changes can only be made in a referendum under article 133) in its articles on autonomy (109, 110), which covers Kosovo and Vojvodina, allows them to adopt programs of economic, scientific, technological, demographic and regional development and allows them to introduce regulations in the fields of culture, health care, education, official languages, public information, child care, ecology, urbanism, allows them to have their own income, statute, assembly, government.

The criticism from abroad is aimed less at the constitution than at the behavior of the authorities. Two days after the NATO delegation visit, a memo came from the UN Human Rights committee, at the initiative of Bosnia, Croatia, the US, Germany and Italy, which condemned the Yugoslav authorities for repression over the Albanians and violations of human rights in Kosovo. The EU conditioned the start of a treaty on trade and cooperation with Belgrade on an agreement on solving minority issues in Kosovo, Vojvodina and the Sandzak.

Most Albanian politicians use the moral shame of Serbia and the behavior of arrogant and bad authorities (The US administration included Serbia in its list of rogue states along with Iraq and Libya) to lobby for the independence of Kosovo, demanding an international protectorate or at least trying to force the FRY to demilitarize the region. Their politicians have been deft in securing support in the West, partly through paid lobbies.

The Americans allegedly believe the Kosovo Albanians should get autonomy but not secession. The EU, as last week's visit by Ibrahim Rugova to Bonn showed, won't support Kosovo's secession and the ethnic Albanians there have to choose between a compromise with Belgrade, the current break in communications or accept casualties until the cavalry arrives.

For a long time the region has seemed a place that can only be brought to harmony by someone who can turn water into wine while the international community is demanding that the Serbian authorities show some good will and start a dialogue with the Albanians and grant them some privileges.

Under the ND proposal, the Kosovo issue would be soled as part of Serbia's new regional order and would be linked to the architecture of the Balkans with the dominant idea being transparency of borders and linked regions with decentralized decision making on regional development and with self-rule in the modern sense of the word (the ND also wants autonomy for Vojvodina and Belgrade). The Kosovo Albanians with their Ghandi like actions are persistently sending messages that they do not feel loyalty to Serbia but they have so far absolutely refused any discussion of a solution through the regionalization of Serbia.

Was the NATO delegation in Belgrade just to cool the air prior to NATO taking over Bosnia or was it looking more towards the south?

The fact that last week there was mention that the basic tasks of the NATO assembly - democratic control of the military, minority problems, establishing a strong parliament in Yugoslavia, arresting war criminals, succession - seems to be a setting of conditions for real negotiations on the formal joining of, if not Partnership, then other European institutions. To a tired Serbia, all these tests could seem like just more harassment.

"Partnership for Peace means more than just war games. Our goal is to convey our experience in forming defence ministries and a military hierarchy in countries that are developing democracy, on the principles of democratic organizing and accountability towards political institutions," Willi Klaes, former NATO Secretary General, said closing the 40th session of the NATO General Assembly in the Hague.

NATO does not guarantee military aid to members of Partnership For Peace if their sovereignty is in danger and there are many territorial pretensions in the Balkans outside the former Yugoslavia.

After 14 weeks of peace talks, Milosevic initialed a package of treaties in English including an agreement with NATO and an agreement on stabilizing the region which includes measures on building trust that calls for a report on armaments within 30 days and a conclusion to negotiations on military separation within the OSCE in a period of 180 days.

If the separation agreement is not achieved, the signatories agree to a general limitation under the proportions 5-2-2. The starting basis will be the established armaments of the FRY; that means the FRY will have to limits its weaponry to 75% of the starting basis, Croatia to 30% and Bosnia to 30% but in Bosnia the 30% will be shared out among the Bosnian Serbs and Moslem Croat Federation with two thirds going to the Federation.

That is still far from Partnership For Peace but it looks like the Bush-Gorbachev agreement on limiting conventional weapons.

Romanian defence minister George Tinka said a year ago that his country, which joined Partnership and applied to join NATO, destroyed 1,591 tanks (63.5% of its total number of tanks) under the arms reduction treaty. Romania also adopted laws which allow foreign troops into the country even nuclear weapons and temporary deployment of NATO.

The treaty that was signed by Milosevic obviously includes obligations at home and abroad. At home, in Belgrade, political powers that are talking of joining Europe are growing, many people are removing their nationalist insignia but there's a lot of mist there because few people have any idea of the institutions that have to be set up and the procedures to follow. Almost no one has mentioned the fact that the adaptation period to join the EU is 12 to 15 years long.

 

ANTRFILE

The Power Of The Silent Weapons

The equipment and weaponry of the Armies in the former Yugoslavia

 

BOSNIA

BiH Army (Moslem-dominated)

Manpower: Around 92,000 active and 100,000 reserves split into 78 infantry brigades, 13 mountain brigades, one scout brigade, two artillery brigades, two anti-aircraft regiments, five territorial defence brigades, one special forces brigade and nine motorized brigades.

Equipment (assessment): 31 main battle tanks (T-34 and T-35), 35 armored cars, 100 artillery pieces, 130mm and 203mm cannon, two 262mm multiple rocket launchers, 200 82mm and 120mm mortars, 100 anti-tank guns (AT-3 Sagger and Red Arrow), Sa-7 and SA-14 land to air missiles, five helicopters Mi-6 and Mi-8 and three UTVA-75 aircraft.

 

Croat Defence Council (HVO):

Manpower: Around 50,000 split into 36 infantry brigades, one artillery division, one missile division, three "extremist brigades" (the agency didn't explain) and one special forces brigade.

Equipment (assessment): 100 main battle tanks (T-34, T-35), 80 light armored cars, 200 artillery pieces, 30 multiple rocket launchers, 300 mortars and SA-7, 14 and 16 land to air missiles.

 

Bosnian Serb Army (BSA):

Manpower: Around 75,000 split into eight armored brigades, 62 infantry brigades, one motorized brigade, on special forces brigade, one anti-tank regiment, one anti-aircraft regiment, one armored regiment, one mechanized brigade, four mountain brigades, one artillery brigade and one artillery regiment.

Equipment (assessment): Around 370 main battle tanks (T-34, T-35, M-84), 275 armored cars, 730 artillery pieces, 122mm and 152mm cannon, 76 128mm and 262mm multiple rocket launchers, 900 mortars, Frog-7 surface to surface missiles, 20mm, 23mm, 30mm, 57mm and 90mm anti-aircraft guns. SA-2 land to air missiles, also several SA-3, SA-6, SA-7b, SA-9 and SA-14, around 20 airplanes (Galeb, Jastreb, G-4 Super Galeb, Orao, Utva, Kraguj and Cessna) and 24 helicopters including 12 Mi-8 and 12 SA-341 Gazelle.

 

Croatia:

Croatian Army (HV):

Manpower: around 100,000 (65,000 conscripts) along with 180,00 land forces reserves and 10,000 civil defence.

Land Forces:

Manpower: 99,6000 (including 65,000 conscripts) in six operative zones (Zagreb, Bjelovar, Split, Osijek, Gospic and Karlovac) - 29 infantry and six mechanized brigades, one artillery brigade with missile launchers, one anti-tank brigade, one anti-aircraft brigade, one special forces brigade which includes an airborne battalion, one mountain infantry battalion, one marine battalion and one engineers battalion.

Equipment: 176 main battle tanks including nine T-34, 140 T-55 and 27 M-84, five Pt-76 armored cars, five BRDM-2 scout vehicles, 82 M-80 armored infantry vehicles, 40-50 BTR armored troop transports including 19 M-60s. 949 artillery pieces:

a) ZIS-3 caliber 76mm, 85mm and 105mm (29 M-56 and 31 M-2A1), and 122mm (22 M-1938, 21 D-30), 130mm (34 M-46) and 152mm (15 D-20 and 13 M-84);

b) Self-propelled 122m (two 2S1), 19 BM-21 122mm multiple rocket launchers, two M-63 128mm multiple rocket launchers and (maybe) Orkan 262mm multiple rocket launchers, 677 mortars M74/75 of 82mm and 120mm, 84 UBM-52 mortars, 152 guided anti tank missiles AT-3 Sagger and 28 anti-tank guided missiles AT-4 Spigot, 70 100mm T-12 anti-tank cannon, 600 anti-aircraft guns of 14.5mm, 20mm and 30mm, SA-7, 9, 10, 13 and 14 land to air missiles.

Navy:

Manpower: 1,100 in main bases in Split, Pula, Sibenik, Ploce with eight coast guard patrol boats, one submarine, one corvette with surface to surface missiles, three missile boats, one torpedo boat, four minelayers, 12 assault craft, 16 coastal batteries.

Air Force:

Manpower: 300 with 28 combat aircraft including 21 MiG-21, six Galeb, one Orao, nine troop transport helicopters (two AN-2, two AN-26, five UTVA, 18 Mi-8, five Mi-24, on UH-1 and one MD-500).

Para-military Formations: A police force of 40,000 armed troops.

 

Yugoslavia:

The Yugoslav Army (VJ):

Manpower: Around 126,500 (including 60,000 conscripts) and 40,000 reserves.

Land Forces: Around 90,000 (including 37,000 conscripts) split into three army groups and eight corps including one mechanized, three tank brigades, eight mechanized brigades, seven motorized infantry brigades, one special forces brigade, one paratroop brigade, six artillery brigades, one anti-tank brigade, nine anti-aircraft brigades, five SAM-6 missile regiments.

Equipment: 639 main battle tanks including 407 T-54 and T-55 and 232 M-84, 38 BRDM-2 scout vehicles, 517 M-80 combat vehicles, 112 M-60P and BOV-VP armored transports, 1,499 artillery pieces including:

a) 786 M-56 105mm cannon, 200 122mm cannon (M-1931/37, M-1938 and D-30), 180 130mm cannon (M-46), 48 152mm cannon (M-1937, D-20, M84), 84 155mm cannon (M-59, M-65);

b) self-propelled: 105mm (M-7) and 75 122mm (2S1), 72 multiple rocket launchers of 122mm (M-63 and 67).

1,700 mortars of 82mm, 566 120mm mortars, 135 guided anti-tank missiles AT-3 Sagger, 60 76mm anti-tank cannon, 74 90mm (M-36B2) anti-tank cannon, 130 100mm (T-12) anti-tank cannon, 540 20mm anti-aircraft guns, 358 30mm anti-aircraft guns, 54 57mm anti-aircraft guns, 175 SAM-6, 7, 9 surface to air missiles.

Navy:

Manpower: 6,000 (4,500 conscripts) split into two naval infantry brigades.

Main bases: Kotor, Tivat, Bar.

Equipment: Four submarines, four frigates, 41 coast guard patrol boats, 10 rocket launching ships, four torpedo launching ships.

 

Sources: The International Institute For Strategic Studies in London, publication Military Balance, October 1995.