Milosevic's New Karadzic

The end of the war in Bosnia was a sign to start a new series of speculation on who will get what post in the Bosnian Serb hierarchy. Nikola Koljevic, a member of the Bosnian Serb Republic (RS) presidency, has persistently been a candidate for Milosevic's new Karadzic for over a year. The name of that former professor of literature in Sarajevo ranks first thanks to the fact that he is the first high-ranking RS official to have seen Milosevic after the Serbian President clamped strict sanctions on the Bosnian Serbs. Since the visits to Belgrade are the most serious criteria, Bosnian Serb Army (BSA) commander General Ratko Mladic ranks high on the list as well.

Following Dayton and the charges raised in the Hague against Karadzic and Mladic, a guessing game is underway on who will replace those two.

Koljevic ranks high in the betting in Belgrade and the rest of the world but not at home.

"Not Koljevic, he drinks too much," an UNPROFOR officer told a reporter for Belgrade's B-92 radio.

People who know Koljevic said he won't become the RS leader for two reasons: he's not interested and he's loyal to Karadzic. Koljevic's personal friends in Banja Luka said they can't understand his fascination with the RS President.

In all the speculation, some feel that Karadzic could affect the choice of a new RS leader because under its constitution, the President is elected by parliament in times of war and at peace he has to stand in elections. If he decides not to bow to the wishes of the Serbian President and leave politics, Karadzic can propose a candidate to parliament or stand in elections or a referendum. UNPROFOR bookies and most Bosnian Serb politicians agree that Karadzic's most likely successor is parliament Speaker Momcilo Krajisnik.

Changes at the head of the BSA will be a much bigger problem for the Serbian President who is obliged to implement the peace agreement. Milosevic needs a man who will demobilize the army in peace with no objection. General Mladic is a man who believes that only a defeated army withdraws, who Radovan Karadzic said has a "tendency towards military adventures" and Milosevic says has gone crazy. He can hardly be considered a reliable man. An additional difficulty is the general's undisputed popularity among his soldiers and the people and among the other BSA commanders.

The Belgrade Institute of Social Sciences researched his popularity and showed that Mladic is popular on the other side of the Drina as well. He ranks second (50%) among politicians who the polled like right after Milosevic who got just 0.9% more votes. And Mladic got 13% less unfavorable votes than Milosevic.

If he goes against the popular general, Milosevic has to count on a ratings drop among the Bosnian Serbs and a setback in his political aspirations in Bosnia. Also the loyalty the BSA generals have shown to their commander during Karadzic's attempt to purge him last August shows Milosevic will have problems.

The most often mentioned generals who could replace Mladic are Milan Gvero (Belgrade's man), Novica Simic (commander of the military police before the war started which could mean a lot) and the BSA security chief Zdravko Tolimir (he went to Dayton). The choice of one of them or someone else is much less a problem than toppling Mladic.

Milosevic might ask Karadzic for help in toppling Mladic but how remains an open question since Karadzic was defeated and humiliated once before. All the regime press in Belgrade sided with Mladic in that clash.

Along with the feverish efforts to find short term personnel change solutions inside the RS authorities, preparations for elections are underway which the peace agreement says should be held next May. It's already clear that two big parties will stand in them; Karadzic's ruling Serb Democratic Party (SDS) and the RS Socialists (SPRS). Installing the SPRS in Banja Luka was a good move by Milosevic. The Banja Luka region and the Bosnian Krajina are the home of a large part of the RS population with material, cultural and intellectual potential. The typical sensitivity to social injustice has survived there as shown by the mass joining of the partisans in World War II and the September 93 rebellion by the military in this war. The population also has a sense of regional belonging which is shown in the constant opposition to Pale and the RS leaders there.

Another illustration of the mood of the people in the RS is the fact that all opposition parliament members are united into an opposition MPs club from the northern electoral communities from Bijeljina to Banja Luka.

Sources close to Milorad Dodik's opposition club told VREME that they will join the election race. The political capital they have is their opposition to Karadzic and the rest of parliament from the moment they refused to accept the Contact Group peace plan.

Being the opposition to Pale in conditions of regime controlled information is a tiring and risky business. So far, only the sharp tongued Dodik has spoken out on behalf of the opposition while the other club members, mainly businessmen and managers, are waiting for a better moment. VREME was told that Dodik's group will be joined by Andjelko Grahovac, the successful young director of the Univerzal company in Banja Luka. He became famous when he was thrown out of the SDS (for "pro-Serbia deviations") and later when a group of Bosnian Krajina MPs proposed him for prime minister. Since Dodik's group (party) is made up of managers and businessmen they could strengthen their political gains with money.

All through the war, Banja Luka has had a small but valuable Liberal Party headed by philosophy professor Miodrag Zivanovic. They were handicapped by the war: they rallied young intellectuals and intellect ran from the war immediately following the escape of capital; it used to be multi-ethnic but the war has almost cleansed it. Its president and most members were sent to the front but they don't have the money to turn that into a political gain. In spite of all that they are politically ambitious. Judging by their ideological closeness and earlier meetings and friendships with Socialists they could realize those ambitions in a coalition with the Socialists.

Like Serbia, the RS also has three Radical parties including Seselj's which has lost its bearings through personnel changes. Glamocanin has just formed his while the one in Banja Luka, formed by lawyer Dubravko Prstojevic has no money.

The entire RS opposition is in the Bosnian Krajina which will hold the key to elections with the 60% of the RS population it houses. That's why the stories that the next president will come from there are believable. Allegedly, Milosevic even told the SPRS to choose a candidate who is known and popular and from the Bosnian Krajina.

Many are looking to Banja Luka Mayor Predrag Radic after his appearances on Serbia's state TV and TV Politika but only as someone who has decided to represent himself, his city and region. Sources close to the SPRS said the party is thinking about a pre-election poster similar to the one the SPS used in the first multi-party elections in Serbia: a portrait of its candidate alongside the president of Serbia.

A poster of Karadzic could be signed: The man who lasted longest without Milosevic's support, but that's not political capital. The ruling SDS is going into the elections with ambiguous results. The SPRS will say: enough, it's time for peace and prosperity.

Anyone who asks did we need all this, doesn't stand a chance.