Welcome to Bosnia, IFOR

January 9, 1996 was more important to Bosnia-Herzegovina than the speed of daily events themselves. That day the siege of Sarajevo was formally ended with a closing ceremony at Butmir airport when the last UNHCR plane landed; impressive statistics were voiced about the longest airlift after the Berlin blockade, the importance of the UNHCR in feeding the city etc. Another ceremony was held in the B-H Federation Assembly building after a law on amnesty for a large group of Bosnian Serbs was adopted: Serbs who deserted the Moslem led B-H Army or fought in the Bosnian Serb Army (BSA) (both groups did not include suspected war criminals). The law and declaration were adopted at around 5:30 p.m. that day.

Just 15 minutes later a grenade hit a tram near the Holiday Inn. It hit the roof and most probably exploded at a sharp angle making a 30 centimeter hole in the roof. That was fortunate: a direct hit would have killed many more people. One person was killed and 19 wounded. Tram driver Mehtida Dzelvan heard and felt the strong explosion but continued driving to the nearest first aid station. IFOR was informed after a delay and there were no anti-sniper patrols on the spot.

IFOR reacted late but seriously: French troops opened fire from their armored cars with 20 mm guns and small arms, firing towards the building the grenade was launched from. Since it was night, a detailed investigation had to wait for daylight. Bosnian Foreign Minister Muhamed Sacirbegovic said immediately that "the grenade's aim was to send a message to everyone who wants an integrated Sarajevo and to President Clinton who intends to visit the city".

Federation vice-president Ejup Ganic said "this is a test for IFOR and now is the time to react; it is a test for the entire Dayton agreement".

The Bosnian Serbs authorities "with indignation reject the claim that Serbs fired the grenade", Bosnian Serb news agency SRNA reported quoting sources "close to the Karadzic cabinet". The Bosnian Serbs demanded their participation in the investigation from IFOR "to prevent a repetition of the situation after the incidents in Markale and Vase Miskina street when the Serbs were blamed initially which later investigations proved incorrect". And the Serbs left it at that.

The next day, Wednesday, January 10, IFOR began its investigation, which included dragging the tram back to the site. Earlier IFOR spokesmen said their information showed that the grenade came from Grbavica which is under BSA control. IFOR surrounded and searched the building in Grbavica which they suspected the grenade was launched from and found a spent grenade launcher on its roof (RBR m-80, 64mm). Since it's not conceivable that anyone could have gotten to Grbavica from Sarajevo, fired the grenade launcher and then got back unnoticed, the Bosnian Serbs familiar accusations that the Moslems are killing their own people won't help.

Trams have a symbolic value won during the siege. The hopes of Sarajevans grew or dropped when the trams rolled or stopped. There have been 60 attacks on trams with nine dead to date.

IFOR said the attack was the act "of armed elements out of control". Admiral Leighton Smith met with Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic on Wednesday and said after the meeting that Milosevic promised to do everything he could to prevent future incidents. The Bosnians demanded that IFOR immediately remove all BSA formation from Grbavica. That won't be easy; the deadline is January 19 when the BSA has to leave the parts of Sarajevo that will go to the Federation; after that the Serb police, armed only with hand guns, will be allowed to stay for another 45 days before the territory goes to the Moslems. Admiral Smith told Milosevic that there will be no postponement. That day houses were set ablaze in Grbavica and Vrace neighborhoods.

At the same time, a new year crisis escalated in Mostar which started with the death of a young man in eastern Mostar on January 1. On January 9, the HVO fired eight grenades and two mortar shells into the Bosnian government parts of the town. That crisis has deeper roots and they are included in the Dayton agreement: Croat western Herzegovinians never agreed to the Federation, keeping in line with the doctrine of Croatian Defence Minister Gojko Susak (originally from Herzegovina) that the federation is "like swallowing a live frog".

The Mostar incidents (new year, the wounding of two Bosnian policemen a few days earlier and the shelling on Tuesday) brought IFOR face to face with another illustration of the complexity of the Bosnian combination. Sarajevo and Mostar are linked: if the Federation doesn't survive the rest of the Dayton agreement fails, including the territorial division which upsets Karadzic. The interests of the Pale Serbs and the western Herzegovinians are in agreement so much that there is a latent danger of them renewing their 1993 alliance.

The IFOR honeymoon is over: preventing an unprincipled coalition could become its primary task.