Belgrade or Pale

Although the exact date of the elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina has not been announced yet, the pre-election fever has begun in the Bosnian Serb Republic, so the recruitment of voters might become a topic more attractive than the implementation of the peace agreement.

Twenty-four political parties and associations have been registered so far. In expectation of the election rules, they are developing their election strategies.

A major problem, both legally and technically, will be the forming of voting lists. Although a census was not explicitly foreseen by the Dayton agreement, it seems to be the only way of registering all the voters, many of whom have left their homes. At the same time, this would encourage them to return to their homes. The defining of the electorate in such circumstances is a rather complicated undertaking, so the question is whether the elections are likely to be held by September which is the deadline according to the peace agreement.

The political struggle in the Bosnian Serb Republic will occur chiefly between two blocks: the left - headed by the Socialist Party (SPS), including the Independent Social-Democrats, the Yugoslav United Left (JUL) - and the right - comprising ruling Serbian Democratic Party and the Serbian Radical Party. Since the war is over, the parties of the civil option, such as the Liberal Party from Banjaluka, are gaining importance.

Serbia's President Slobodan Milosevic has apparently abandoned his intention to let someone more loyal than Karadzic head the Bosnian Serb Republic before the elections. The most frequently mentioned name was Nikola Koljevic, Bosnian Serb vice president. However, he has opted for the SPS branch in Banjaluka.

"Our party has more and more followers," says Dragutin Ilic, the head of the Bosnian Serb Republic branch of SPS and the director of the Banjaluka Ambulance. "The establishment of peace has made a new environment in which the citizens now can hear what the socialists advocate, they see that our programme offers possibilities for the accomplishment of their aims. Members of the Socialist Party have a moral integrity and people trust them. They managed to keep their dignity during the war and they did not offend either the authorities or citizens of non-Serb nationality who live with us."

Another party which attracts attention are the Independent Social-Democrats. This party has grown out of the Club of seven independent MP's in the Bosnian Serb Republic Parliament. The party leader is Milorad Dodik who became MP as member of the Bosnia-Herzegovina Reformists in the first elections. He is a businessman, owner of a furniture factory, who spends much time in Belgrade.

According to Secretary of SDS Presidency Vladimir Verkis, the ruling party is "busy with the implementation of the Dayton agreement, economic stabilization of the Bosnian Serb Republic and enforcement of the state." The Presidency was recently formed as an executive body which is to visit the entire RS territory and see who they can count with. "SDS will certainly try to purify its membership, to freshen up, get new personnel, in order to successfully compete with other parties in the forthcoming elections," said Verkis.

However, SDS personnel basis is obviously rather narrow. The party must get rid of some compromised persons, even in the leadership, if it wants to gain confidence of the voters. On the other hand, it can hardly expect to attract new people. This is why no major personnel purge should be expected in SDS, but more or less cosmetic changes. In the meantime, opposition parties are mercilessly attacking the ruling party, as part of their pre-election strategy.

When it comes to national policy, the Bosnian Serb leadership believes it has been successful. "I think we have done the maximum in the circumstances we are in, having got the Bosnian Serb Republic as a state in a rather large territory," said Verkis.

Of course, the voters will be far more interested in the actual position of the Bosnian Serb Republic and how normal life would be restored. When it comes to economy, everybody wants economic cooperation with the world and with the neighbouring countries, in order to solve the social problems of the impoverished people, invalids, families whose members were killed in the war. However, the opinions about the constitutional and legal position of the Bosnian Serb Republic vary. While most parties maintain that unification with Serbia is a priority, the Liberal Party maintains it would be disastrous for the Bosnian Serbs.

"We want the implementation of the Dayton agreement," said Liberal Party leader Miodrag Zivanovic. "This means that our activities will be directed toward the development of the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Its structure will be different, but Bosnia-Herzegovina is a chance for co-existence and for the resolution of not only the Serbian but also of the Croatian and Muslim issues."

The forthcoming elections in the Bosnian Serb Republic are important not only for its parties but also for the parties in Serbia. The socialists in the Bosnian Serb Republic believe that if they lose, which they doubt, their party comrades in Belgrade will find it much more difficult to stay in power. This is why opposition parties in Serbia are planning to be active across the Drina river. Apart form the radicals, whose Secretary General Aleksandar Vucic says his party has the best chances, the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) and the Democratic Party will also take part in the elections.

Although with an enormous burden, including the fact that the party leader Radovan Karadzic has been accused of war crimes, SDS is not without chances. As a ruling party, it will try to take advantage of the media which it controls. It will attempt to gain popularity by taking care of the refugees, invalids, families whose members were killed in the war and by raising pensions and salaries ahead of the elections.

In the first elections, the citizens of Bosnia-Herzegovina voted for national parties. This time, according to Milorad Dodik, the voters will not opt for party programmes, but for the capable and uncompromised individuals. However, after everything that has happened, it will be difficult to gain the trust of the homeless, impoverished, wounded, confused, disgraced and embittered who only want to settle down somewhere and start living a normal life. This is why some estimates say a large number of people will abstain in the forthcoming elections in the Bosnian Serb Republic.