The Three Little Enemies

There are differences and similarities between Communism and American ideologies which Bosnia and its neighbors should take into consideration at once to recognize them more easily, study them and prepare for what is coming.

Communism withdraws leaving a mess and in this part of the world it has almost disappeared, except from the mind of Mira Markovic (Milosevic's wife and leading officila of thr Yugoslav United Left - JUL) which, unfortunately isn't just her personal problem, but we should ignore that and disregard it if we want to talk about the future. Instead of Communism and the Russians, the Americans are coming and no one here has much experience with them although we all think we know everything about America. But the first big surprises are in store for them.

First they sent their troops into Bosnia but with a lot of anxiety and hesitation. Those troops are there just to implement the peace agreement but the Americans had reason to expect resistance and hostility at least from the Serbs. So they imposed limited objectives. They left many doors open to retreat without humiliation and failure.

They found many servants without a master here. They still don't know how long they'll stay, invite them to feel at home, ask them what they think and hurry to agree. Belgrade, Zagreb and Sarajevo will simply prevent them from leaving. No one can afford to allow America to lean towards the other sides. Milosevic, who wasted so much time with Russia, is now quickly gaining ground, which is embarrassing to watch as it always is when someone loses his dignity. But he knows that the time of pride and gay mockery of the entire world is over. Top state interests now demand sacrifices and suffering humiliation. All that would be quicker and easier without Milosevic but could not be avoided no matter who's in his place.

The Americans will stay here whether they want to or not because there can be no balance without them. However, the servants aren't just obedient, they're also sly. The Serbs, Croats and Moslems can't and don't want to become Americans but do want to use them and turn them against the others. That means they'll cheat, evade and sabotage whenever it suits them as they are doing in Bosnia. The only thing they won't dare is wage war.

The three little enemies have called in the big power and all are offering Americans their false friendship. But America won't be disappointed with them since the little people can't trick the big people. The privileges of a great power is that it does not have to rely on anyone's honesty, love and friendship. The Americans are not accustomed to looking into hearts and souls; they pay attention only to what is being said and done; respect for agreements and meeting obligations. We are free to pretend and lie if we prefer that as long as we don't cause problems. That will be a refreshing change compared to communism which wanted to know what we thought even when we kept quiet whether we are really happy and love each other or are just saying things. If the Americans really do stay in this part of the world we will discover they do things which we remember from communism.

If they want to get something done, especially in terms of other countries and foreign policy, they are capable of disregarding and violating norms and rules. That obviously happened with the arrested of two high-ranking Bosnian Serb Army officers which the Hague tribunal had to launch an investigation into and demand their extradition hastily after the arrest. A mistake in the pattern of steps is embarrassing; the tribunal is under a shadow of doubt but America disregarded that and lent support to the whole thing in which, maybe, even the CIA was involved. The Americans usually try to base their force on right but if they can't then, as the Russians would say, they act accordingly.

Most probably, Bosnia will see more examples of American pragmatism at the expense of procedures and justice although not necessarily at the expense of the Serbs. Before that balance is established, before everyone undergoes a similar treatment, the Americans seem to want to get their hands on Radovan Karadzic and General Mladic. That could take time but as long as they are free, the Bosnian Serbs have no chance of improving their position.

American ideology has another similarity with Communism which could bring a new, positive experience to Bosnia and everyone around it. That is relying on pedagogy instead of genetics; faith in the possibility of changing and shaping human conditions and overcoming biological and social limitations. The story of the inability to live together could be seen as a personal insult by an American as a claim that he, his country and his way of life are impossible.

In its own way, communism was based on pedagogical optimism, but with collectivization and violence, and it failed. However, the slogan of brotherhood and unity, at least its sense, calls for inter-ethnic tolerance, and could sound very American so some local nostalgics could get unexpected satisfaction. In any case, whoever wants to suck up to the Americans, and everyone does, will have to refrain from racist, nazi and fundamentalist statements.

Tudjman and Izetbegovic are still enjoying a significant tolerance but if the Serbs don't do anything stupid they will have to watch what they're doing soon. Tudjman could find the attack on Hans Koschnick very expensive. No one in the world believes in the spontaneous gathering of unhappy people here ever since the anti-bureaucracy revolution. Izetbegovic will have to take care not to mix religion with state so the Americans won't link him to Khomeini.

Washington has become more important to the national leaders than their electorates but the Americans themselves are certainly putting a lot of store into free elections in Bosnia. Although everyone knows there are many different customs in the world they still believe that people in general opt for their own interests and probably hope that some kind of force of peace and agreement will win in Bosnia.

There are still a few months left to the elections but I don't believe any positive miracle can happen. We are dealing with something the Americans know nothing about; the phenomenon of opting against your neighbor, against another nation. They don't understand because they have no neighbors who could endanger them. I want to say that there is every chance of three homogenous blocks winning the elections in Bosnia and on that basis no will for life together can be established and Bosnia's future will remain uncertain.

As the fashion of imitating the Americans grows, the will to sustain the poverty Socialism regime in Serbia could drop. In that country they do not value poverty and see no virtue in it. They don't think God loves the poor or that misery is a spiritual thing and denouncement of the material world. In short, they tend to believe that it's better to have than to have not which could cause civilizational misunderstandings here.

Naturally, the Americans will try hard to win us over. No one will be obliged to choose Coca Cola over plum brandy. It's good that Milosevic, having seen that the war is no good, knows that they don't like people who smoke too much.