The Closing of the Circle

No one who believes March 9 will live on after Milosevic risks being wrong. There is every chance that the memories of the people who took part in that day will grow to become more beautiful, glorious and pure with time, especially if Milosevic, the SPS, RTS, SDB, JUL and Mrs. Markovic pull themselves happily into the 21st century as they intend to. The memories of the March demonstrations will bring more nostalgia and less motivation for rebellion with time.

Five yeas ago it might have seemed that March 9 was the start of a rebellion and liberty but it wasn't clear where all the energy and will could be directed. There was reason to hope and to fear but no doubt the state TV was chosen correctly as the reason and target. The dismissal of Serbian TV director Dusan Mitevic was won along with several other leading liars and that was the first and last opposition victory. The victory turned out to be small and temporary and the overall defeat incalculable.

In that sense, March 9, 1991 seems like the climax and the end of efforts to connect Serbia to the other East European countries whose regimes toppled. That day everything seemed possible: the police got a beating; no one fled the tear gas; the water cannon just added to the anger of the masses; shop windows broke; cars burned. From some hole, Slobodan Milosevic called in the army to save him.

But it was already too late for a coup. Milosevic was not as unprepared as he seemed. For years he had been practicing the role of the popular leader; he hid his communist paraphernalia carefully and advised his wife to wait for better times. Also, and more importantly, the war was looming and after March 9, Milosevic knew he would not miss that opportunity. For him that was the most certain way to survive the overall fall of communism and for the Serbs and Serbia the way to part with European history.

The big scene of war was premediated but during the March demonstrations the link between the rebellious pressure against the Serbian regime and the rebellion in Knin became clear. Serbian Prime Minister Zelenovic, fabricated and launched a report that the Croats were attacking Glina on that March day. They didn't then but they did later, and the Krajina Serbs kept Milosevic safe in Belgrade.

The energy of the rebellion in Serbia was finally turned around. Tanks were brought out onto the streets over what was called vandalism. The anti-regime noise was overruled by a much greater noise and the tanks showed us and the world what vandalism is. The defence of the regime suddenly turned into the defence of Serb homes.

Milosevic's personal problem became the national problem and that controversy, that old formula, still works today.

But, the key to that success is that no one managed to break through the cordon around the state TV on March 9 or at any other time. Through it, Milosevic sent messages that he can and will do much worse to anyone who wishes him ill. If we don't like him someone will pay for that in blood. First Croatia paid, then Bosnia, then logically, the Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia.

In that sense, he makes no difference between his own and other peoples. He cared as much for Vukovar as he did for Knin. The siege of Sarajevo or thousands of Serb refugees, it's all the same. The important thing is for the bill to be high and someone else's. For him all people are equally alien, except for Tudjman, whom he has the best understanding.

Since that March 9, Milosevic has made a big circle and he has no one to put in front of him anymore. He has something completely new ready for this situation. He got out the things he had put away. His wife and his TV laid the ground for things to catch us unprepared. And we got the Internationalle again, Cuba, China and social property.

The Serb homes seem to have been a slight digression: an episode to be forgotten. Saying goodbye to all that, Milosevic mentioned at his party congress that all the Serbs across the Drina, all the refugees, should not forget Serbia's solidarity without which they would not have things as good as they are now. If they're not certain, if they don't trust him, they can switch on their TV.

It's been five years and this March 9 there are countless more reasons to come to Republic Square, but the historic moment to topple the communist regimes is gone. And Milosevic seemed much less like a communist then than he does now. We still lived like decent people then; we thought we belonged to Europe, we had bank accounts, we traveled and phoned around. No one had ever heard of Jezda and Dafina. Arkan was only known to the people who should know. China was far away.

Now everything is different but we don't feel like demonstrating or rebelling. Things were bad enough then but it seemed they could easily get better. Now we know that things can always get much worse. We've seen what the authorities have to defend themselves, and Milosevic would certainly want us to remember that lesson.

But the question here isn't reasoning out where this is leading: can we go on and is there hope? Going out to Republic Square should be a matter of reflex, like pulling back the hand that's too close to the fire. Or, if you prefer, this could be seen as a matter of personal hygiene, or good habit, or something you do to be what you are, to take part in your own life and keep your self-respect. There is no way any more to tell yourself you don't care, that maybe things will get better or won't but there's nothing you can do.

I have no great illusions about the local opposition but I would say it's the final moment for them. If they don't consolidate this year we could begin next year with just two political leaders and they wouldn't even give us the perverse enjoyment of a TV duel. They'd settle things around the kitchen table.

If this March 9 consolidates relations between the Serbian Renewal Movement, Democratic Party and Serbian Civil Alliance, there would be some hope. That coalition could be a good thing for everyone; everyone would bring in something the others lack without sacrificing anything important and not losing any supporters in the process. The Serbian Democratic Party would have to join or disappear, Seselj would be left alone and there would be some logic in the whole thing.

If things don't turn out that way; if they start arguing and obstructing each other again; if Milosevic manages to trick them into his camp; if things stay as they always were; then at least no one will ask which way is out. The way out is where it always was: at the border crossing.