Milosevic's Position After 1997

"The question is beyond the competence of the Ministry of Justice." This was, in short, Serbia's Justice Minister Arandjel Markicevic's reply to the question by MP Aleksandar Cotric (SPO) whether Slobodan Milosevic could once again be re-elected Serbia's president. The question was asked a year ago and the answer arrived now, although MP's questions are to be answered within 30 days. Markicevic added that the question pertained to the "interpretation of the Constitution of Serbia."

Can Slobodan Milosevic, according to the Constitution, be Serbia's presidential candidate for a third time? Constitutional law experts' interpretation shows that this is a rather complicated question. From the standpoint of political reality, the matter is far simpler.

At first sight, the Constitution of Serbia is quite clear. Article 86 says that the president of the republic is elected in free elections by secret vote, that his mandate lasts five years and that a person can be elected president twice at the most. Milosevic was elected president twice: in the regular 1990 elections and in the early 1992 elections. If he were presidential candidate once again, it would be the third time, which the Constitution, one would say, does not allow. Or maybe it does?

The existing public dilemma is: the president's first mandate lasted only two years instead of five, so since his mandate was not completed, perhaps he could get another one. The most renowned law experts whom "Vreme" has asked for explanation disagree whether the constitutional case exists and - if it does -who is in charge of resolving it. According to professor of Constitutional Law Pavle Nikolic, there is no case at all. The Constitution says the same person can be elected president twice and does not say whether the president is elected for a ten-year term or two five-year terms. Milosevic was elected twice and, according to prof. Nikolic, he cannot be elected a third time. Another renowned professor of Constitutional Law, a member of the Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences who wished to remain anonymous, maintains that the case exists because one article says the mandate lasts five years and another article says the president is elected twice at the most. Since, according to the same source, a system for the interpretation of the Constitution does not exist and whoever is applying it can interpret it, the question whether an incomplete mandate can be considered as mandate ought to be resolved by the Constitutional Court of Serbia.

Serbia's Constitution itself contains no information on incomplete mandates. Serbia's previous (1974) constitution foresaw such a possibility. One of the amendments adopted in the 1980s specified that a mandate which lasted shorter than half the term was not considered a complete mandate.

Milosevic has been regularly elected president twice. The fact that he used up his first mandate in a period shorter than allowed by the law was his own choice. Judge of the Constitutional Court of Serbia Slobodan Vucic underscores that the president's mandate was not forcibly interrupted, but that he himself decided not to use up the full mandate of his own free will, by announcing early elections. The constitutional limit for the length of a mandate is five years, but this does not mean that the mandate cannot last shorter and be considered as used.

In theory, a mandate is an authorization to hold an office, the authorization which in the case of a president is gained in elections. And what would have happened if the president had died, resigned or been recalled? The mandate would also be considered used. Another question arises concerning the incomplete mandate. If the president held the office the first time for two years and the second time for five years - if he were elected for a third time - would his mandate last three years? Or would it again last five? An expert for electoral issues has called this mathematical problem a "law delirium."

If the problem is observed in the context of the real-politics in Serbia, many of these fogs quickly begin clearing up. If Milosevic, with his super-presidential authority, decides to be a candidate once again when his mandate expires in late 1997, he will find a possibility. In one way or another.

Milosevic might decide that he wants a position in the federation which has been relieved of real political contents from the beginning. This would be the question of where the real power in Yugoslavia would be located. The monopoly of rule lies for the time being in the leadership of the republics, Serbia in particular.

"If Milosevic were to run for president for a third time, which I don't believe he will, this would not only be contrary to Serbia's Constitution, but would also mean that Yugoslavia was being given up and that the country was becoming a confederation, because for as long as he is the president, all the power is in the republic," said Prof. Vucic.

On the other hand, if the republic passed the legislative rights on to the federation, it would give up its power. This would damage the monopoly of rule, since all important decisions in the federation are reached with the agreement of both federal units. There have been many speculations concerning a possible change of the Federal Constitution in order to extend the authority of the president of Yugoslavia before Slobodan Milosevic possibly takes that position. Many people in Montenegro are concerned that if Milosevic became Yugoslavia's president, the ruling party in Montenegro would have to determine the "minimum of equality which Montenegro would agree to," although the minimum has proved to be a very flexible notion.

Constitution experts, however, point to the fact that the federal Constitution would not have to change at all and that the need to have the consensus of both federal units should cause no complications. Since, according to the Federal Constitution, the prime minister has the greatest authority, while the president is chiefly a protocol office, if Milosevic took the office now held by Radoje Kontic - which, considering the ratio of political powers, seems quite unimportant - he would get the authority foreseen by Yugoslavia's Constitution. According to the Federal Constitution, the Federal Government establishes and implements the foreign and internal policy. The federation is also in charge of the country's defence and safety, economic system and the realisation of human rights and freedoms. So, if Milosevic really wants Yugoslavia, he can legalize his factual power over the federation through the office of the prime minister - provided that the "two eyes," the two socialist parties, get a stable majority or a safe coalition partner in the elections, like Seselj used to be. The federal elections are scheduled for the end of this year. We shall not have to wait until Serbia's presidential elections late next year to find out where the real power will be in future.

Powers of the Serbian President

Army Commander in war and peace

Declares mobilization, prepares defence

Declares the state of war

Imposes the state of emergency

Grants promotions, appoints Police Generals

Foreign Affairs

Dissolves the Assembly and the Government

Imposes veto on laws passed in the Assembly, but is obliged to verify the law in case the procedure is repeated with the same law

Proposes the candidate for the Prime Minister post

Proposes candidates for Constitutional Courts, Presidents and Judges

Abolishes and pardons

Serbian President's Responsibilities

It is difficult to topple him: the demand for his removal can be initiated by no less than 167 MPs after which a majority of the Serbian electorate should confirm this on a referendum.