The Post-War Elections

There's about a season and a half left to any kind of elections. So it should be too early for any serious excitement over politics, but both the regime and opposition in Serbia are acting as if something essential is being decided now. Let's say they know what they're doing and look at why it's happening now.

Since it seems the regime is dictating the pace and ferocity of the exchange of blows, it also seems Milosevic is seriously nervous and getting very unfavourable signals about the mood of the electorate. Some have probably not cooled down after the war; others are wondering why there was a war; some think the president is spending too much time with the Americans; others don't understand where the Chinese came from; and everyone swears someone is stealing.

As for the media, Milosevic did what he could, considering the unfavourable circumstances that the world is watching Serbia, that it has something to blackmail it with, that it's not easy to bring back things that have gone on the rampage, that it's not convenient to arrest and ban any longer, that some people have taken courage and all this is one big democracy. It's unfortunate that the regime PA system can only prove that the opposition is belligerent or treasonous but it can't blame them for thefts.

So what's left? A large shortage of money can't go unnoticed in a small and poor country. It would be wrong to explain that Serbia unselfishly gave everything for the war and aid to its brethren across the Drina because that seems defeatist since the war ended badly and because some of the more prominent brethren will appear in The Hague sooner or later. That could seem as if Serbia, through Milosevic, had financed the founding of the international war crimes tribunal.

Nor are the sanctions, which will have been long gone by election time, a convincing excuse. No one will be happier if they are promised that now the fight against crime will be constant. The great advantage of the opposition is that it's innocent of theft and Milosevic is left to prove that the opposition, should it gain power, would steal just as much perhaps more, which might be right but is hypothetical. A theory sprang up from somewhere that it's better to choose proven thieves over the unproven. Allegedly, they've stolen enough already.

Besides being grossly perverse, that belief is completely wrong since no thief has ever stolen enough, since there is never enough in theft, since it's enough only when there's no one and nothing left to steal.

So if there's no more rhetoric of war, the problem of thefts becomes the biggest civil issue which regime propaganda can't answer adequately even if the opposition is completely blocked and can't even organize rallies. People will ask: where's the money? And the only good answer would be to pass out money. But if someone wanted to share, why would they steal?

Perhaps the opposition parties haven't suddenly become dear to the people, but if there is a strong reason to vote against the SPS then Milosevic is right to fear that people will choose something else and it won't be JUL. That could be the main reason for the early start to the election campaign, i.e. the crushing of the opposition, obstruction of rallies, law suits and gossip.

Someone said the elections for federal parliament will come first. In any case they will be the first post-war elections and the vote will cover the balance of Milosevic's overall policies. It would be better if he had lost his mandate before or during the war, but if he gets another term he wouldn't have to call elections and could easily convince us that no one needs parties.

I believe that, for this opposition and this generation of Serbian citizens, the first post-war elections will be the last chance. Never again will there be so many good reasons to defeat the regime. Not even with the greatest will could Milosevic, or Mrs. Markovic and their parties ever again produce the amount of death, poverty and misfortune that we saw over the past few years. If they're not defeated because of all that I see no reason why they ever should be. Why should any authorities be in the minority at elections?

Some warped logic expert might say that if we hadn't outvoted them by now, it doesn't matter any more. Now the regime can only get better and it has started renewing links with the world and Milosevic has been rehabilitated halfway and perhaps accepted more than the opposition. Let's say that's right and it's not. The key reason remains. Serbia and this Yugoslavia have not seen something that every other European state, without exception, has - the change of the authorities at elections. No one here knows what that's like, and without that experience this country is a democratic virgin, just a geographic part of Europe with the formal qualifications it needs to belong. The course of European history, especially over the past few years, is pressure which Serbia has managed to resist so far and has survived as a clot in the veins of civilization. Now the internal reasons have grown to the highest possible level and the kind of regime and opposition might not even be a decisive element. We have to show people what it's like when power changes hands peacefully. To believe that is a normal occurrence, people have to see that the miracle is possible.

I would say that a large part of the argument prone opposition feels the importance of the moment correctly. Some initial preparations have been made: the SPO, DS and GSS are clinging together and haven't clashed in over a month. They don't seem to have reached a stable formula for a joint appearance at elections yet but the nucleus is there and we could expect others to join them. Perhaps the long standing mutual mistrust between Vuk Draskovic and Zoran Djindjic is the weakest point of this loose alliance. No doubt both could list a number of reasons to be cautious of each other but it seems they are in a position to decide the outcome of the elections. Someone has to trust someone else once here to stop the process of general decay. There is no other way.

Draskovic and Djindjic are the key players in the formula: oppose Milosevic without Seselj and no other alliance stands a better chance. That formula could break apart if one of them or both want to promote themselves and profit as much as possible at any cost. If that happens we should all know that Milosevic was handed the elections on a platter. Neither the power of their parties or their personal credibility could survive that breakup. Milosevic and the rest of us could easily forget them with no regrets because they would then prove unworthy of the challenge and incapable of mature decisions and heading the state.

The existing or an expanded opposition alliance would have every chance of growing from the simple collection of parties in it. I believe that there would be many more people who would accept them together more easily than the number of people who would reject them because of one figure alone. Every one of us could recall why we don't like a certain opposition party or leader. But we should all bear in mind the prospect of the peaceful and undisturbed rule of Slobodan Milosevic and Mira Markovic.