Whose is Kontic

The public support for National Bank Governor Dragoslav Avramovic is fading after the latest attacks against him and now he just alludes to that support and tell reporters to ask "them". "It's hard to expect anything to leak to the public before a public statement," a source close to the Podgorica authorities told VREME.

The silence continues after pressure from the Montenegrin opposition to make that support public given the new circumstances. Whether that will happen soon depends on the outcome of the arguments between Belgrade and Podgorica far from the public eye, the source said.

The greatest doubt stems from the question: if Montenegro supports Avramovic, does it also support federal Prime Minister Radoje Kontic. Why doesn't it start the mechanism to replace him the more so since the federal government is a favorite topic with Montenegro Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic and the fact that many decisions by the federal government endanger Montenegro's equality in the federation.

In any case, the general assessment is that the difference of views on the talks with the IMF and World Bank are causing cracks in the coalition between the Socialists in Belgrade and Podgorica. The federal government is a coalition of the two ruling parties and if the Montenegrin DPS persists in supporting Avramovic the coalition will break-up and the government will fall, said Dragan Soc, National Party parliament group chief. He added that that would happen if the DPS really does support Avramovic, which would be the only logical and possible thing - but everything that is happening points to the conclusion that this is feint within a feint.

The Montenegrin opposition all agree that the bad outcome of the Paris talks is not in the republic's interest and that the ruling party should be careful. Kontic's dismissal would change nothing but some people are wondering what would happen if Kontic took a guarded position like Avramovic which he can do under the constitution. If Avramovic can be defended in parliament, Kontic can do the same since assessments are that the necessary majority would be secured to keep them in place if the DPS really supports Avramovic. But, in an interview to Poland's Zecpospolita daily, Kontic insisted on everything Avramovic opposes.

What would happen if the DPS starts proceedings to oust Kontic? Recall that Kontic is a Montenegrin parliament deputy along with his deputy Uros Klikovac. The opposition pointed out in vain Article 100 of the Constitution which says "a member of the federal government cannot hold another public or professional post". Instead of taking their parliament seats away, the Montenegrin government would delay parliament session for hours waiting for Kontic and Klikovac to arrive from Belgrade to vote.

The DPS can call for a government confidence vote which could oust the prime minister and perhaps exert decisive pressure on the main power center in Belgrade.

There are assessments that Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic would get strong parliament support for that which could cause a big crisis and decisive moves on the political scene which would endanger Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. Is that possible and is it true that only Bulatovic answered Avramovic's letter asking for support from him, Lilic and Milosevic? That report was not confirmed by the Bulatovic cabinet nor was the report that he talked to Avramovic afterwards.