The Generals' Downfall

Considering how turbulent a period we had in the past year and the total number of generals and admirals (250 at any time before the war), it could be said that the personnel changes in the Army have not been that big: on December 22, 1991, 57 officers were promoted and decorated, while on February 28, 30 generals were "removed from active service". In the meantime, however, JNA was left without its Defence Minister, army districts have been reorganized, the Yugoslav Air Force has changed three commanders in less than a year, and the Yugoslav Navy two, along with its reduction to a single military-naval district (Boka) with the temporary strongholds on Vis and Lastovo.

A certain number of generals have lost in the war, only to gain in peace. Generals Zivota Avramovic, Andrija Raseta and Nikola Uzelac have lost Slovenia, entire Croatia and Western Slavonia (in that order), but not their insignia and functions; on the contrary. Two Serbian defence ministers - admiral Jokic and general Simovic have taken more important offices, probably because "Serbia is not at war", and general Marko Negovanovic, who was the head of military security during the war in Slovenia (the one who ought to have known what was awaiting the army in Slovenia), has become the new Serbian Defence Minister. Then, the chief of the Political Department of the Ministry of Defence, Vuk Obradovic, has swiftly been promoted from the head of the cabinet of Veljko Kadijevic to general-major, to then become the chief of the political administration, traditionally one of the most powerful. General Zivota Panic, who is known as a composed and capable officer, has become deputy chief of the Headquarters, while the stars of generals Ratko Mladic and Vlade Vukovic have been rising, although these two have been famous for their quite standard political statements - or perhaps just because of that? Milan Gvero has also been promoted to general, despite his numerous gaffes and some catastrophic public appearance in the capacity of spokesman of the Ministry of Defence ("not even a speck of dust has fallen of Dubrovnik") or, perhaps, because of that?

If we compare the lists of the decorated and promoted officers with the lists of those whose service is ending, we can see that some of them have been promoted because of their retirement, others have been decorated because it was their turn, while many have been retired on basis of ethnic quotas. Half of the generals who are leaving are not Serbs; all of those who have been newly appointed are Serbs. Of the forty generals who were promoted on December 22, only six were not Serbs.

At first glance one might think that the yardstick used was participation in the war and not the results achieved and this could turn out to be true. However, one should not forget the smoldering generation gap tension within the Army. The pressure of younger, better educated and more ambitious officers of lower ranks had the chance to surface last year, although the "old timers" are bearing up well, despite the serious mistakes they made in the course of the past year and a half.

The future crippled Yugoslavia that Radoman Bozovic promised to Serbs and Montenegrins last Friday cannot bear the cost of this huge generals' and officers' corps, as well as that of other army personnel. They have to face the most painful part of the defeat: dismissal. One must be very careful here, since the process is painful and dangerous. Judging from the statements of responsible people from the political administration of the Defence Ministry it will be conducted in the following order: Croats and Slovenes, Macedonians the opponents of Slobodan Milosevic (or his supporters -it remains to be seen), the supporters of the Communist Party - Movement for Yugoslavia. Only then it will be the turn of the unfit and the defeated - if it comes at all. It has been nicely summed up as follows: "National affiliation has finally stopped being an advantage or a shortcoming for advancing in the army", says lieutenant colonel Stojadinovic. We have the Serbs, the Montenegrins, the Moslems and symbolic representatives of ethnic minorities.

Will the new and reformed army keep its oath to protect the country? Will a civilian in the office of defence minister, as Branko Kostic announced on Friday, provide an efficient parliamentary and democratic social control over the army? The instance of Bosnia and Herzegovina will show us what the intentions of the remnants of the army are: has it learned its lesson of the past year and a half and will it protect a country which is not ruled by the communists - no matter of faith.