Serbia in a Russian Mirror

Reports from Russia's first presidential elections reached Serbia, the land where everything is mixed up and divided into left and right, but caused no big commotion.

Just prior to the elections, on June 11 in Belgrade's trade union hall, Gennadi Zyuganov's book I Believe in Russia was promoted in the organization of Branko Kitanovic's New Communist party. Seemingly the authorities had nothing to do with the promotion but, Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic had a meeting with directors of the Russian metalworks complex who are doing compensation deals for natural gas through Viktor Chrenomyrdin's Gasporm which is reported to be financing Yeltsin's campaign. State policies towards Russia are getting more pragmatic.

The propaganda by the state media, pushed from nationalism into communism, was confused with hopes that Zyuganov's ratings would rise. Borba, the daily owned by the government that sent a delegation to talks with the IMF, held a fierce pro-communist position, defending Zyuganov against accusations of opposing reforms and accusing the Americans of interfering in Russian internal affairs. Serbia's RTS state TV cheered on Zyuganov but somewhat less fiercely than it cheered Yazov and Zhirinovski earlier. Serbian Radical party leader Vojislav Seselj stood by Zhirinovski but we don't know if he'll learn anything from his defeat.

The silence of politicians and expectation of the final outcome of the elections in Russia was broken last week when Vuk Draskovic welcomed the victory by reform forces in Russia just as he was the first to welcome Yeltsin's victory over the coup plotters in August 1991. SPO spokesman sociologist Ivan Kovacevic told VREME that Yeltsin's victory will affect politics in Serbia because it will discourage the ruling Socialist party of Serbia (SPS) and the Yugoslav United Left (JUL). JUL's strategy is based on a victory of national-communists but the Russian electorate gave its vote to reformists - Yavlinski, Yeltsin, Lebed, Fyodorov, he said.

Will a victory by Zyuganov as the main rival of Yeltsin revive Serbia's confidence that the Left is returning in the East? No, Kovacevic said, the electorate here will say it's another communist defeat.

Several Russian-Serb symposia were held here during the autumn and winter to discuss problems of transition and privatization in the East and revive some theory useful to preserving the rule of ideology and ownership it is based on. Former SPS ideologist Mihajlo Markovic was one of the more prominent. He told a gathering on the goals and paths of society in transition that following the victory of the Left at elections in Poland and Hungary "the damage done could no longer be repaired since most state property was definitely lost".

Since 1987, Serbia and Russia have gone down different roads. The Soviet Union broke up peacefully, Yugoslavia waged war; the state economy in Russia worked with the West, Serbia waged verbal war on the West and bowed its head finally to ask for help.

What are the political assessments of the influence of the Russian elections on the Serbian elite? VREME examined the opinions of experts, both politically engaged and independent, and advisors to political frontmen.

Ratomir Tanic, political advisor to the New Democracy leader, feels the elections in Russia will affect politics in Serbia but indirectly - they will have a strong influence on a more mature new Left which is returning in a new form after 4-5 years (Kwasnievski in Poland, the Bulgarian socialists and Zyuganov). The transition process brought a number of negative effects (crime and poverty) which the new Left has to oppose. Tanic said the return of the Left is not simple but it has to recognize the positive results of the transition.

Vladimir Veres, a Russia expert at the Strategic Studies Institute, said Zyuganov's policies are uncertain if he wins since his party has several programs. One of those is more acceptable to the public and Zyuganov used it for the campaign. Veres said the other, stricter program would probably be implemented if he became president and it includes deprivatization. Zyuganov would also probably try to correct Russia's Balkan policies but would be limited by the country's abilities and there would be no drastic changes. Veres was right in predicting that Lebed would be given a high ranking state post after the first election round. He said Yeltsin's victory would mean the current policies would continue but he would have to introduce social measures to dampen the effects of the reforms.

How will the elections affect the electorate in Serbia?

Sociologist Srecko Mihajlovic of the Social Sciences Institute said that effect would be indirect: political parties could change their strategies based on the outcome of the elections in Russia.

Sociologist Vladimir Goati, author of several books on political parties and elections, told VREME that opinion polls to date don't show whether the Russian elections will influence voters in Serbia but added that it's safe to assume they will as they influenced the political elite. In the 1987-95 period the elite made faulty predictions on key events in Russia and paid too much attention to the situation there. That is true of the outcome of the coup in Moscow in 1991 and assessments of Yeltsin's conflict with parliament which culminated in the armed clash at the Moscow White House in 1992. Both times they backed the losers. All those options are gone and if they had succeeded we don't know if anything would have changed. The situation with Zyuganov now is similar although the approach is much more pragmatic, Goati said.

The elections are another test of democracy in Russia. The emergence of a general on the Russian political scene should cause some tremors in Serbia. Presidential candidate General Lebed, whose election slogan was "Justice and Order", has joined the reformists.

Serbia will reach that test this autumn. General Momcilo Perisic, Yugoslav Army Chief of Staff, (closer to the fate of the ousted Grachev than Lebed) has nothing to say. The ruling party is showing no tendency to balance the scene which was best expressed by Gorica Gajevic, head of the SPS parliament group, last week when she said the goal of the Left is to push the Right to the margins.