Bildt’s Investment

The question of the week in Washington and Brussels was "who’s the Bosnian Serb president today?" The prize goes to anyone who can formulate the most convincing phrase to say that Radovan Karadzic isn’t. On Tuesday, in just one day, three people offered three answers to the riddle. Bosnian Serb Republic (RS) Prime Minister Gojko Klickovic disqualified himself and lost his chance at the prize immediately; a day after Bildt said Karadzic had withdrawn and transferred his powers to Biljana Plavsic, Klickovic said in Sarajevo that Karadzic is still president while Plavsic is just administration chief. RS vice-president Plavsic didn’t want to play and she made an uncharacteristically mild statement that her current post (acting president) can’t adequately be translated into Serbian. High Representative Carl Bildt was the favorite for the prize: "As far as I’m concerned he can call himself the emperor of China or Donald Duck," he said in Stockholm when asked if Karadzic was still president.

Bildt laid the groundwork for Karadzic’s spectacular departure (scheduled for June 30) on June 26. The Washington Post said Bildt and Karadzic had agreed on June 26 on the transfer of power to Plavsic with a concession to Karadzic so he could remain leader of the ruling Serb Democratic Party (SDS), put the document in his pocket and waited for that Sunday when the G-7 chiefs were expected to demand Karadzic’s removal.

The surprise failed first because RS Foreign Minister Aleksa Buha couldn’t keep a secret (he spoke unofficially about the deal on Saturday), then, on Sunday, Plavsic couldn’t keep her mouth shut and told reporters that nothing has changed and Karadzic is still president.

Most probably Karadzic and Bildt also reached some agreement on the SDS election list. Informed sources in the RS said Karadzic won’t stand in the elections as a concession to the international community although other sources said he will continue playing cat and mouse because he knows how badly the international community wants the elections in September. The initial July 4 deadline to register candidates was unexpectedly extended on Tuesday for another four days of uncertainty.

The Bosnian elections are the real stakes in Karadzic’s game of nerves with the international community. The RS leadership suffered defeat in Dayton which RS Parliament Speaker Momcilo Krajisnik is convinced can be turned into victory at the elections. Krajisnik, as the Pale strongman, doesn’t want any solution for Karadzic that would diminish the SDS chances. Karadzic said recently that the SDS needs to win at least two-thirds of the vote to save what the Bosnian Serbs fought for, i.e. the RS.

Washington is hoping for a different outcome. Opinion polls by Belgrade’s Medium agency, commissioned by the US Information Agency, in the RS in April show that support for the RS Socialist Party stands at close to 36% while support for the SDS is at 24%. In Banja Luka that support grows to 40% and SDS support drops to 16%. Eight out of ten people polled said they would vote. A State Department official who recently briefed reporters in Washington on condition of anonymity said the two election blocks that have Milosevic’s support will win at least half the vote. In any case, this is Karadzic’s last stand the official said. The RS has no future anyway. "There’s no room for a small, independent RS with some 600,000 people and no industry. I know Karadzic believes he will be absorbed into Serbia somehow but there’s no chance of that or there will be no future for Milosevic."