Conflicting Forces

On Tuesday morning, at the time when the writing of this article began, IFOR's helicopters were flying over Banja Luka, and jets could be heard above the clouds; for the first time, military policemen from the civilian section of the multinational forces could be seen patrolling in bulletproof jackets and in full combat gear. It was a reaction to the strained relations between IFOR and the Republic of Srpska (RS), and all the fuss surrounding the inspection of the ammunition dump in Han Pijesak, not far from general Maldic's headquarters. IFOR advised members of governmental and non-governmental organizations stationed in Banja Luka to seek shelter in the biggest military base in Southwest Sector, in Ramici, in order to avoid last year's scenes with hostages being handcuffed to lamp posts. It seems that most civilian organizations considered IFOR to be overreacting, so only members of the international police force and European monitors followed IFOR's instructions. The fuss in Banja Luka is only a small part of an abnormal, difficult pre-election frame, which is even more difficult and heavier than the pre-election picture.

However, the pre-election atmosphere is gaining acceleration. It is visible to the naked eye in the form of a billboard war. Posters are constantly being put up, often pasted over some other party's posters, billboards are being torn or smeared with mud...

So far the best election package is being offered by the Democratic Patriotic Bloc (DPB), consisting of five political parties none of which has a strong party organization and "infrastructure" even on one third of the territory of RS.

The main strength of this bloc lies in the charisma of its coordinator, and presidential candidate Predrag Radic, whose influence and authority is far greater than the support which the parties united in the bloc can offer him. Overall, it is a feature of the DPB that its representatives are stronger than the parties they represent. At a local level, in Herzegovina, Dragomir Grubac is more important and better known than his Party of democratic centre; in Semberija, Ljubisa Savic Mauzer is better known than his Democratic party. The situation is similar in the cases of Rajko Prodanovic, and his Peasants' and Workers' Party from Potkozarje, and Dubravko Prstojevic and his Popular radical party "Nikola Pasic". In the case of the latter, however, the identity of the party is further obscured by the existence of several radical parties which emerged as a result of a number of successive splits in the biggest of all- the Serbian Radical Party.

Although strong candidates heading weak parties may seem as a problem, it is a fact that so far the DPB has the most serious, toughest and well thought out political campaign. Aware that proving one's patriotism is a waste of energy, the Bloc carefully prepares its criticism of the government, choosing one issue at a time- on one occasion it is the privatization and the state of the industry, on another it is the foreign policy and relations with Serbia and FR Yugoslavia, or social policy.

The other large coalition bloc, the Union for peace and progress (SMP) is slightly behind the DPB in terms of pre-election campaigning. The SMP is a coalition which relies on the reputation, strength and infrastructure of the Socialist party of the Republic of Srpska (SPRS). Besides the Socialists, the SMP also consists of the Independent Social democrats of RS, a party which developed out of what was once the Independent members club in the parliament of RS, lead by the current leader of Independent Social democrats Milorad Dodik. Thanks to the SMP coalition, other minor parties such as the social-liberal party lead by dr. Milorad Zivanovic, JUL and New Labour party can expect to obtain the status of parliamentary parties after the next election.

The SP RS itself yielded its influence and strength from the charisma of the Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic and his party. However, the party which once seriously considered the possibility of having election posters featuring a photo of the local parliamentary candidate next to a photo of the Serbian president, in the end organized a rally in Banja Luka without giving Milosevic even a mention.

In contrast to the SP RS and related parties, the Serbian radical party, lead by Dr. Nikola Poplasen, has few problems either with its identity or with links with Belgrade. It advocates unification with Serbia, with suggests Milosevic as the main obstacle towards the achievement of that goal. The main obstacle which Radicals themselves face is insufficient or non-existent distance between themselves and the ruling party, in the sense that their party programs are almost indistinguishable.

The ruling party in the Republic of Srpska is the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS). So far it does not allow other parties to come too close, not even Poplasen's radicals whose loyalty is unquestionable. The ruling party has sufficient power and authority at its disposal to provide opportunity for everyday promotion. The opposition's main objection is the monopoly over the media. Press conferences and rallies organized by opposition parties are either ignored by the media, or presented in the way least painful to the authorities. Something similar has already been seen in Serbia. The SMP can partially overcome the selective reporting by the media through the use of Belgrade state TV and the press. TV channels from Belgrade, however, are visible only in Eastern Bosnia, one of SDS strongholds, but not in Krajina, where the opposition is very strong. Reports on the activities of DPB are usually featured on page fourteen of Politika, which sells five times more copies in the RS than the only local daily newspapers "Glas Srpski".

Frightened public opinion presents another problem. When reporters of AIM news agency tried to carry out an opinion poll during a public rally in Banja Luka, they found that majority of citizens were afraid to take part. They were afraid that whatever they say will be noted down and sent to "some special place". They were willing to answer questions only providing they remain anonymous. Other reporters, who at the same time interviewed people in parks and in cafes about why they were not at the rally, had similar experiences. These people were also afraid that information they give will go to "a special place", although some other "special place".

It is clear that the two strongest political forces are the authorities in Serbia which is backing its own favorites and the current authorities in Pale.