The Invisible Finger

One of many election manuals published by various idle bureaucratic institutes, states that the process of voting consists of "six phases": "1. At the voting station a controller checks whether a voter has already voted by positioning his finger over an ultraviolet spotlight. 2. A voter proceeds to the person in charge to check whether his name is registered in the voting log. A voter should identify himself by showing an identification document. 3. A voter’s finger should then be marked by invisible ink. There’s no reason to be concerned about invisible ink. It is noticeable only when exposed to the ultraviolet spotlight and disappears in a week. 4. A voter is then given voting files; he marks one item in each ballot by a checkmark (X) and folds each ballot. Discretion is guaranteed. Only voters know who they voted for. 6. Finally, voters put each ballot into the box of corresponding color. That’s all. Voting is completed."

When the instructions are so detailed, then the most complicated elections in the world are of pressing matter. "Elections in Bosnia have no alternative." This statement, frequently repeated by politicians, has become a slogan of forthcoming elections on September 14th. It certainly uncovers the firm will to conduct the elections, but it seems that it also hides unavoidable irregularities of the events to come.

Major irregularities (let’s not use the word "frauds") stem from the fact that it is not entirely known how scattered and where exactly the Bosnian electorate is located.

According to the data of the Banjaluka office of OSCE, it could consist of 2.900,000 citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina registered as eligible for voting. The speaker of OSCE in Banjaluka Tomas Miljerina has said at a press conference that 850,000 refugees would vote. Some 503,000 of them registered to vote in the communities where they lived in 1991, and 130,000 in the communities where they currently live. The same data shows that 209,000 citizens of BIH have the right to return to the communities where they lived in 1991.

The number of displaced persons (those who remained in BIH but in communities different from their residence in 1991) equals the number of refugees. Some 389,500 of them will vote in person and 143,000 of them in absence. They will vote in communities where they lived in 1991. The majority of those are Moslems and Croats. Some 295,00 of the displaced have decided to vote in the places of their new residence and the majority of them are Serbs. The number of persons that have not changed their place of residence is around 1.200,000.

The electoral strategy of the three national bodies that were at war until a year ago depends on the votes of refugees.

A comparison of the ethnic map of BIH’s inhabitants of 1991 with that of 1996 shows that a minority lives in their pre-war home towns. For example, Srebrenica was previously predominantly inhabited by Moslems (75.20%) and now by Serbs. Drvar was mostly inhabited by Serbs with minor participation of Croats and Moslems, and now by Croats. Moslems who fled from Jajce to Travnik can not enter Jajce where they once had a relative majority, because it is now almost 100% inhabited by Croats.

For those whose borders between the entities are consider as state borders, Brcko is the town of "to be or not to be". If it would belong to the Federation, Republika Srpska would be cut into half; if it would remain in RS, Zubak has said to the Bosnian Moslems that they could only dream of the roads through Hercegovina to the sea coast; they would not have the exit to the highway once called "the road of brotherhood and unity". Both sides have arguments based on the concentration of the population. Thus, primarily thanks to the votes of the refugees who have renounced their home towns, the Serbian party has 35,000 people registered for voting in Brcko. This exceeds the pre-war number of Serbs in that town by 70%. The other side conducts the same policy.

Caught in the middle of the collision of two strategies written with "the invisible ink", those who want nothing else but to return home, seem helpless and naive.

The data of the PIK (Privremena izborna komisija, Temporary Electoral Committee) shows that voting will be conducted at 4,400 voting stations in 109 communities and 10 cantons. The citizens of BIH will have the choice to vote for one of 24 political parties, 5 coalitions and mutual lists and 3 independent candidates, which totals 3,398 candidates.

If the activities of counting the voting ballots flow as planned, the results of presidential elections for the Presidency of BIH, Federal House of Representatives of BIH, the President of Republika Srpska and the Presidency of BIH Federation will be known by September 18th. The results for the Parliament of BIH Federation and the Parliament of RS will be announced by September 19th. PIK will confirm the results of the first post-war elections in BIH on September 25th.

Perica Vucinic

The Spirit of Bosnian Elections

His Eyes Are Watching

Probably tired of various rallies (even two or three daily), Momcilo Krajisnic, lacking inspiration at the rally in Bijeljina, has improvised several times on the theme of Serbian women who should do "those things" and "bear us children"

Just a few days before the voters in Republika Srpska will arrive at the voting stations, the leaders of the ruling Serbian Democratic Party have warned their followers that "officially exhibiting the posters of Radovan Karadzic is contrary to the essence of the verbal and written agreement with the representatives of the international community, and electoral rules." In the same proclamation, they reminded that Karadzic is forbidden to participate in all elections and warn the members of SDS that the obstruction of electoral rules and "the official use of the posters" could expell them from the party. (The warning and the threat of being expelled certainly does not refer to the "white eaglets", progeny of SNO, who have posted Karadzic’s poster all over Belgrade).

"Prohibition" from the top of SDS came, however, after the pre-electoral caravan of the party, with Karadzic’s posters of course, has crusaded all over RS and held rallies in almost each and every village. A few days ago in Bijeljina, for example, only Karadzic’s posters could be seen at the central town square. Many of them were embellished with flowers, arranged like some sort of laurel wreath, thus clearly acknowledging who is to be considered as the only "Serbian blooming flower" (no matter how prohibited) and who is to be the winner of the forthcoming elections. In order to clear all possible doubts, those who signed the proclamation a

few days later (Biljana Plavsic, Momcilo Krajisnik, Aleksa Buha) have said to the gathered masses from the stage at the City Square in Bijeljina that "among them is also someone whose name must not be mentioned by the will of the foreign tycoons, but whose eyes are watching them and saying - we did it, let us go on!"

The rally in Bijeljina was one of the worst and the least convincing performances of the SDS leaders. Over 3,000 people were gathered at the City Square. Just as the first speaker exclaimed "God is with Serbs", the rain shower started, which probably disturbed the speakers. From the SDS's first team, the best in form was Aleksa Buha. He mostly dealt with the Dayton Agreement and kept persuading those present that there is no way BIH will reintegrate today, almost a year after Dayton, although many would gladly witness it.

Probably tired of various rallies (even two or three daily), Momcilo Krajisnic, lacking inspiration at the rally in Bijeljina, has improvised several times on the theme of Serbian women who should do "those things" and "bear us children".

The thesis of "one hundred percent patriots" was developed later on by Biljana Plavsic. She warned that all the others must "seek the opinion from Belgrade or somewhere else", while only SDS has it head office in its people. Plavsic reminded the citizens of Bijeljina of the fact that she was with them right after the "freeing" of the city at the beginning of the war, in April 1992, and that she has never forgotten them.

The same evening, in the central news show of TV Pale, it was announced that, in spite of the rain, the rally in Bijeljina attracted 10 thousand people. The majority of the parties have, however, decided to organize their last rallies in Brcko. On Sunday it was done by the socialists, reinforced for the occasion by Nebojsa Covic. In reply to Covic, the radicals wanted to bring Vladimir Zhirinovski on Monday, but the guest from Russia was not allowed to cross the border and support the Serb bretheren. Zhirinovski and Vojislav Seselj waited for several hours at the border crossing near Raca in vain, but the Serbian police were merciless. Regardless of this handicap, the radicals were no different from all the other parties that have recently organized rallies in Brcko. They all announced that the destiny of the city is at the same time the destiny of RS and that there can be no compromise, no matter what the arbitrary committee decides.

Similar messages were sent by Alija Izetbegovic from the other side of the border. Under the falling rain he spoke to several thousand Moslem refugees from Brcko. He promised them a fast return to the city they had to leave, because if not, "there will be trouble".

On the very day of the elections 31,000 refugees from Serbia who decided to vote in this city should arrive to Brcko, and also an unknown number of Moslems. If the numerous refugee votes "for Brcko" sent by mail are to be added to this, it could easily happen that many more voters vote in Brcko than in Sarajevo.

Just a few kilometers from the place where the socialists, radicals and Izetbegovic spoke about no compromises over Brcko, on the flea market "Arizona" at one of the crossings between the two entities, big trade was going on between Serbs, Moslems and Croats. For months now, everyone has been bringing to this market what the others lack. Serbian green peppers, Slovenian beer, Croatian detergent powder, salt from Tuzla, blue jeans from Novi Pazar, foreign chocolates, cigarettes, satellite antennas, tapes with songs by Semsa Suljagic and Ceca Velickovic... All is sold for deutch marks, of course. The market is open seven days in a week, 24 hours a day, regardless to the weather conditions.

On Sunday, September 8th, while the politicians on both sides cursed Brcko, at the market "Arizona" one Serb and one Moslem were trying their best to pull a truck out of the mud bearing Doboj’s registration plate. They were in a hurry to deliver goods and make another (inter-ethnic) tour. Nobody comes or goes to "Arizona" with an empty truck. If the politicians (at least the main ones) achieve what they have promised, there might not be any new tours.