Kostunica Out of the Game?

Vojislav Kostunica, leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), has given his final word to the Main Committee of DSS on the issue of whether they should join the coalition "Zajedno" after all. However, he conditioned such a decision with his resignation, claiming that he won't join the coalition due to the existence of certain principle political differences between DSS and the Serbian Renewal Party (SPO), considered to be an "unreliable coalition partner since it makes deals with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)". The answer, issued through the words of SPO's spokesman Ivan Kovacevic, stated that Kostunica was the one who was collaborating with the socialists because he is handing his scattered votes over to them.

Such a message is based on the estimation that Kostunica, in the municipalities in which he possibly had the strongest position, would have to multiply his current power more than twice in order to attain an MP position. Regardless of the results of certain polls that might seem alluring to Kostunica, there are no indications that such an about-face will occur in the unpredictable voters would decide upon the collapse of Seselj's Radicals or the coalition "Zajedno" and the great rise of Kostunica.

The Main Committee of DSS has decided last Sunday, despite such a deck of cards, that its party shall stand alone during the federal elections on November 3. Some 91 members of the Main Committee voted for such a decision, 32 were for joining the coalition "Zajedno", while 15 restrained from voting.

Certain journalistic reports speak of the dissatisfaction of DSS members due to the fact that the party is not joining the coalition while speculations exist that it is threatening to escalate into a split in this party. Vladan Batic, Dragoljub Popovic, Bojan Dimitrijevic and Djoko Tripkovic were for the coalition "Zajedno" and they have the support of the committees in Savski Venac, Vracar, Kragujevac, Nis, Vranje, Kladovo, Leban, Smederevo and Kursumlija. Vladan Batic (DSS) announced that no split existed in that party but merely a difference of opinion, and that the initiative to reconsider the Main Committee's decision -which came primarily from committees outside of Belgrade- was well intended since people are worried about the party's future.

The Main Committee of SPO confirmed (on September 7) the agreement on forming the coalition "Zajedno" (from September 2) as signed by the presidents of SPO, the Democratic Party (DS) and the Civil Alliance of Serbia (GSS), and bids the president and the party presidency not to depart from the principle: "coalition everywhere, without exception"; acquiring the right to annul any agreement on joint lists in municipalities, cities or provinces, in case those agreements made by local SPO committees are harmful to the party...

Local elections, for which the ruling party is more prepared due to a better developed infrastructure, may turn out to be an important arena of a political battles, important for the so-called "division of loot" and for the creation of strongholds on the terrain for the next republic elections in 1997. SPS has, during local elections held in 1992, won the majority of votes in 132 municipalities in Serbia, even though it had, in the above mentioned year of 1992, won 36.61 percent of local votes, only three percent more than in the federal elections (33.3). The opposition parties scattered votes, won in only 18 municipalities of Serbia, and lost most of them afterwards.

In the proportional system with 29 electoral units in Serbia, there practically isn't any room for a fourth player, same as in the majority system on the municipal level. The fourth player, according to former results, could probably be Kostunica himself.

Now small national parties will most probably gather around Kostunica, possibly even nationally-oriented opposition dissidents, yet that doesn't seem to spell out a successful formula. The Main Committee of the National Assembly Party (SNS) has decided, on the day preceding the meeting of DSS's Main Committee, to form an electoral coalition with Kostunica in the following federal and local elections. SNS's announcement states that these two parties have similarities from their very beginnings since both emerged from the ranks of other parties - DSS from DS and SNS from SPO - "in order to save its initial programs and continuity of their political orientation, threatened by the unfounded political turning points of the government as well as the opposition." That resulted in pressure on Kostunica not to change his mind... The first round of the elections is therefore, or so it seems, concluded by placing the picture into the fixing agent: national parties - "Zajedno".

The socialists, on the other side of the river, are switching on their big machine, and as yet have failed to make a stand on what they will do with New Democracy (ND) and the Yugoslav United Left (JUL), which has recently announced its stand on the elections with a big party organization and a program devoid of novelties and sensations (Yugoslavia, homeland of all those who live in it, protection of the "wealth of ownership forms", disarmament of the civilian population etc.). JUL is a burden to the socialists, but they are hiding it just like they are successfully hiding their internal conflicts unlike those from the opposition who never shut their mouths as though they have nothing better to do.