The Hand Of Fate

The ballot count after the Bosnian elections wasn’t complete when the outcome was known. Final results for the Bosnian presidency showed that Momcilo Krajisnik of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) beat Mladen Ivanic, joint candidate for two coalitions, the Democratic Patriot Block (DPB) and Alliance For Peace and Progress (SMP).

That victory in elections for a key post means a sure victory for the ruling party in the Bosnian Serb Republic (RS) at all other levels; the RS parliament, Bosnian parliament house of representatives and RS presidency.

Igor Radojcic, spokesman for the SMP (a coalition of leftist parties), said a day after the first unofficial results were published that his block was counting on 25-30% of the vote in the RS parliament and practically admitted defeat.

Social Liberal Party leader Miodrag Zivanovic said the victory of the SDS as an extreme nationalist party and the victories of similar parties among the Moslems and Croats endangers the future of everyone in Bosnia.

The SDS used its absolute control of all resources, primarily the media, during its campaign. The media only reported matters that weren’t favorable to the SDS by mistake but complaints about the media are outdated and they aren’t the only element of election victories.

Krajisnik and Biljana Plavsic admitted that the international community helped their campaign. The SDS and its leaders were politically dead prior to pressure from the international community. They deftly used the provided opportunity of fear to rally the people, declare themselves protectors of national interests, impose national goals as the main topic of the campaign and declare the SDS a constitutive party.

The SDS was also helped along by the ruling parties in the Federation - the Moslem Democratic Action Party (SDA) and Croat Democratic Union (HDZ). Their demonstrations of power among their people secured a rise of popularity for the SDS.

Many people, primarily Serb opposition leaders, feel the opposition’s defeat in the RS is an election defeat for Slobodan Milosevic. They pointed out that the strongest opposition coalition, the SMP, is based on the RS Socialist Party which is kindred to the Serbian ruling SPS.

Official Belgrade’s defeat is only partial since it still controls the party that ruled so far and which will continue to rule. The last time that became evident was when Radovan Karadzic stepped down as RS president only after pressure from Milosevic. Official Belgrade gave no serious sign that it was interested in the RS election campaign. SMP sources said Milosevic promised media and financial support but provided neither. That support boiled down to several tons of newsprint for the Nezavisne Novine and Alternativa Doboj. Belgrade daily Politika covered the SMP campaign on page 14 and published a photo of coalition chief and presidential candidate Zivko Radisic just two days before the elections.

Official Belgrade did not see any favorable outcome for the RS elections. If the SMP block won it would be held responsible by the international community without having the excuse of saying that the people in Bosnia won’t obey orders. Now, communication with the Bosnian Serbs will continue through the SDS which always obeys in the end.

The Serb opposition in the RS won’t be able to form any other coalition except with the SDS.

Despite many things the election victory brings, the RS elections have another quality. The organized opposition will enter parliament -which is a novelty among the Bosnian Serbs. The new parliament, regardless of the balance of power within it, will have to complete all its investigations into scandals the old parliament began.

If there is any justice in elections, it lies in the fact that the people who waged war and won the elections will have to roll in the mud they created. And they will be together again - Zubak, Krajisnik and Izetbegovic. We know it’s a serious job because all three ruling parties put their strongest people up for the state presidency and they do take the state seriously but don’t know how to fit it into their aspirations.