Role of the Trump Card

Nothing is yet certain with regard to the possible role which Dr. Dragoslav Avramovic, "the most attractive political personality of Serbia at this moment," is to play in the following federal elections of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. All that is known is that Mr. Avramovic has postponed his return to Belgrade from Washington, which he had announced for September 9, and the only thing that can be heard from people close to him is that his comment on the suggestion made unofficially and in principle that his name is to appear on all the lists of the coalition "Zajedno" still stands: he needs to seriously reflect how serious and productive it would be.

A certain confusion concerning Dr. Avramovic's long-term commitment was revealed last week (September 12) by Dnevni Telegraf. Citing "reliable sources", it reported the sensational assumption that the popular grandfather Avram had "accepted in principle" the position of governor of the Bosnian Serb Republic. A possibly better basis for such an assumption could have been found elsewhere. According to the not-always reliable local news agency Srna, at approximately the same time (September 7) in Pale, the former prime minister of FR Yugoslavia, Milan Panic, owner of American company ICN Pharmaceuticals, signed a contract with Krajinalek from Banjaluka to form a joint company ICN-Krajina for the production of pharmaceutical and medical supplies.

In accordance with that, the news abot the alleged appointment of governor Avramovic in the Bosnian Serb Republic could be presented as an idea of Milan Panic or of somebody from his circle. Maybe such an idea was mentioned in a half-serious tone.

Dr. Dragoslav Avramovic is connected to Milan Panic by another important circumstance. All public opinion polls point to a certain similarity in the political potential of these two personalities. Milosevic's headquarters had first engaged them for high government positions in FR Yugoslavia, and then dismissed them as soon as they had taken their jobs seriously and as soon as they had started to jeopardize the very position of the Serbian leader. The difference for now lies in the fact that Panic has already tried his hand in the election race with Slobodan Milosevic in 1993 (even though he only had some ten days or so for the campaign, he managed to acquire around a third of the votes in Serbia), while a similar possibility is only now offered to Dr. Avramovic. According to Slobodan Brankovic, director of Medium agency, the last poll conducted by the agency reveals that Dr. Dragoslav Avramovic is at this moment "absolutely the most popular person" in the country. His popularity is similar to Milan Panic's at the time when the president of FR Yugoslavia was Dobrica Cosic. Interestingly, Brankovic immediately asserts his opinion that the position of Dr. Avramovic today is stronger than the one Panic had. Not only have all the circumstances in the meantime changed but he has managed to achieve "a fascinating result" - to stop hyperinflation. This has, therefore, created a lot more problems for the socialists, who demonized him in the media and labeled as some kind of national traitor and foreign agent, the same way they labeled Panic.

Still, Slobodan Brankovic's words should be taken with caution, since his estimation that "placing Dr. Avramovic as leader of the united opposition would be a move which would certainly lead to victory at the elections" is based on the polls of his agency, but some of the other polls show somewhat different results. Namely, on most of the other polls Slobodan Milosevic is still on top of the list of people for whom those that were polled would vote for today, while Avramovic holds second place. For example, according to the Sonda agency in Novi Sad, on the basis of a poll conducted in Zrenjanin, 17 percent of the voters had placed their trust with Milosevic, while Dr. Avramovic had 9 percent. Even if the percentages given to Vuk Draskovic (5 percent) and Zoran Djindjic (1.5 percent) were to be added to his, "Zajedno" is theoretically running behind Milosevic according to this poll.

Many of the fundamental opposition supporters of the leaders of the opposition coalition "Zajedno" are demanding the acceptance of Dr. Avramovic as a specific patron and arbiter in the internal conflict - whose end is not in sight. That demand, however well meaning it is, seems rather naive. That is most probably the very issue which is bothering Dr. Avramovic, which is why he is not certain how sincere Draskovic's and Djindjic's propositions are. He also doesn't know if, by placing his name at their disposal, he will be entering into a risky and superficial deal in which there are too many of those whose aspirations are too high.

The opposition coalition "Zajedno" has, by their long-term internal conflicts, considerably shaken the credibility which they had acquired during their spring rallies and alleged internal harmony. The authority of their leaders who have made low-level political deals and wrangled over each eventual MP seat, has especially suffered. They have failed to keep Vuk Draskovic's spring promise that they would stand on the elections in front of the public with a certain "shadow government". Therefore, the elections are fast approaching and a future "political-business team" of the coalition "Zajedno" in case they were to win at the elections - is nowhere in sight. In such a situation Dr. Dragoslav Avramovic's restraint with regard to pre-election activities is logical. However, that is not the only reason why Dr. Avramovic is hesitating.

Besides those simple dilemmas regarding the entrance into the Serbian political arena, which an over eighty-year old man with a number of medical problems has, there is another reason, which we could call ideological. Although in the last year Dr. Avramovic has radically changed some of his leftist convictions of many years and has turned towards "modern capitalism", it is probable that his understanding of that term differs in certain aspects to Draskovic's and Djindjic's understanding of it, -especially when such understandings are turned into practical intentions. Naturally, it is dangerous to, on the basis of all of this vague and unreliable information, deduct a firm conclusion of whether Dr. Dragoslav Avramovic shall or shall not stake his political capital into the forthcoming November elections in FR Yugoslavia.

More precisely, Avramovic shall certainly be present at the elections, the only thing that is uncertain is whether he shall appear personally or if his political destiny be used to illustrate the nature of the authority of Milosevic's political circle. Fearing it in advance, the authorities are most diligently guarding the value of the Dinar, only to prove that it can be done even without grandfather Avram. Therefore, there is at least one good aspect - until the elections there will be no hyperinflation, which means that Dr. Avramovic has already achieved a lot in the pre-election period.