Public Opinion in Serbia, September 1996

Which party would you vote for if federal parliamentary elections were held now?

The Zajedno coalition 28.5%

The SPS-JUL-ND coalition 24.2%

That outcome surprised many poll researchers, this writer and some readers. The first check of those results was a comparison with the previous elections, in 1993 in Serbia excluding Kosovo. When the results of the percentage of the vote won by the SPS in those elections are compared to the results of the poll and when the results of the DEPOS opposition coalition at the 93 elections are compared to the results of the poll, you get an interesting parallel:

SPS in 1993 24.3%

SPS-JUL-ND 1996 24.2%

DEPOS-DS-DSS 1993 23.2%

Zajedno 1996 28.5%

SRS 1993 9.5%

SRS 1996 8%

Other parties 1993 8.3%

Other parties 1996 5%

Undecided 1996 13.7%

Abstentions 1993 34%

Abstentions 1996 21.2%

The ruling coalition currently has a rating almost equal to the ratings of the SPS three years ago and Zajedno has almost 5% more support than its members had in 1993 while the Serbian Radical Party is losing support.

In Belgrade, Zajedno improved its ratings to 6.6% (from 32% to 38.6%); in central Serbia (without Kosovo) by 5% (22%-27%); and in Vojvodina by just 2% (18.8%-20.8%). We don’t know how the Democratic Party of Vojvodina Hungarians (DZVM) will do in Vojvodina after its break with the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM) and what the For Vojvodina coalition will do as it pins down a relatively large number of dispersed votes.

The SPS has held onto its support in Central Serbia (27.2%-27.5%), grown stronger in Vojvodina by 2.6% (21.4%-23%) and dropped slightly in Belgrade (20.3%-19%).

SRS ratings dropped the most, by 3.5% in Vojvodina (10.6%-6.9%), 1% in central Serbia, and held onto their support in Belgrade. The drop in support for the SRS in Vojvodina is primarily a sign that the war is over. We’ll wait and see how the SRS will profit from social unrest.

But, any calculation will not be complete until the 13.1% of undecided voters make their choice.

Local Level

Which party candidate will you vote for at local elections?

SPS-JUL-ND 22.6%

Zajedno 27.4%

SRS 8.1%

Other parties 4.3%

Undecided 16.7%

Abstentions 20.9%

Serbian voters seem to be avoiding cross voting and at local level, they show that their decisions will be the same as at the federal level.

Partners’s local election poll indicates possible regional differences. The poll showed that 24.8% will vote for the leftist coalition at local level in central Serbia, 22.7% in Vojvodina and 18% in Belgrade.

Zajedno will get 35.7% of the local election vote in Belgrade, 27.2% in central Serbia and 19.1% in Vojvodina. If that indication is correct, it could mean the electorate is forgiving the opposition for the mistakes it made while it ruled locally in Belgrade just as SPS voters are forgiving their party for losing the war, destroying the state and the years of misery. The poll did not show if the opposition voters will let the Socialists win in the second round as they have done so far.

Party armies are staying in place, 69.1% of the people who voted for the SPS in 1993 said they would vote for the SPS-JUL-ND coalition and 70.1% of the DEPOS-DS-DSS voters support Zajedno. Those percentages could be increased by undecided voters. Support for the SRS is dropping since just 54.3% of SRS voters said they would vote for the Radicals this time around, but bear in mind that polls are often wrong about the SRS; every 1992 poll missed the mark with the SRS. In any case, 15% of SRS supporters are undecided and 12% opted for Zajedno. It seems that loyalty is linked to the perceptions of chances to win the elections; just 38% of supporters of other smaller parties are staying faithful to the parties they voted for in 1993 - 14.9% of them won’t vote and 14.5% will vote for Zajedno.

The Yugoslav United Left (JUL)and Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) spent all last year playing to the younger generation, trying to get it into its ranks but judging by the poll, they can’t claim success; 32.3% of voters who were under age in 1993 opted for Zajedno and just 9.3% for the leftist coalition. The SRS will take 12.9% of first time voters.

Zajedno is a young person’s coalition, attracting; 29.3% of voters aged 18-23; 23% aged 30-39 and 23.1% aged 40-49. The SRS won over a similar part of the population with 25.9% aged 18-29, 21.6% aged 30-39 and 27.5% aged 40-49.

The SPS-JUL-ND coalition is like a mirror image of that: the poll shows that 23.9% of its supporters are over 60, 21% are aged 50-59 and 23.1% are aged 40-49.

Men are the more active voters, but the leftist coalition has a better balance of the sexes (54% men to 45% women) than the SRS (59.9% to 40.1%) or Zajedno (57&-43%). Avramovic, who said his wife would kill him if he didn’t obey her, could teach them about relating to women.

Those polled were also asked to evaluate parties on a scale of one to five: 36% graded one for the SPS, the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) got 42%, SRS 44.8%, Democratic Party (DS) 30.1%, Serbian Democratic Party (DSS) 27.5%, JUL 40.9%. On the other hand, 15.7% gave the SPS a five, 2.4% for the SPO, 3.3% for the SRS, 2.9% for the DS, 2.4% for the DSS, 5.2% for JUL.

That could mean that opposition voters are more critical towards their parties than SPS supporters are towards the ruling party, grading them low but voting for them anyway. Average grades for the party leaders were about the same as for their parties with the exception of Milosevic, who has a much higher average grade than the SPS and Avramovic, who scored the highest average grade of 3.899. The coalition leaders are pulling their groups forward.

Will these elections be a settling of accounts?

Those polled were also asked to grade institutions on a one to five scale.

The Serbian president got the most positive grades (15.1%). Zajedno voters tend to exaggerate the influence of President Milosevic and SPS voters tend to underestimate it. Voters believe that, in terms of influence, the institution of president is followed by the Yugoslav Army (VJ) (12.5%), Serbian police (8.2%) and President Lilic (8%). On the other hand, President Milosevic’s influence is said to be vast by 77.6% of the polled while just 18.2% feel the VJ has vast influence. The other armed force, the police, is also not believed to have vast influence with just 28% of the polled saying it does. Among the people who gave the lowest grade to the Serbian government, 60.9% are Zajedno supporters and 58.2% are SRS supporters. On the other hand, 79% of the people who gave the Marjanovic government the highest grade will vote for the SPS-JUL-ND coalition.

SRS supporters voiced the greatest dissatisfaction with the economic position of their families; most of them (37%) said their economic position is very bad and 30.9% said mainly bad.

People who won’t vote said their situation is very bad (40%) and mainly bad (26%).

The undecided mainly (42%) said their situation was average.

Zajedno supporters are less dissatisfied than SRS voters (27.8% said very bad, 27.5% said mainly bad) and most of them (38.7%) said their situation was average.

A higher than average number of SPS-JUL-ND voters (46%) said their economic situation is average.

Most Zajedno (39%) and SRS (37%) supporters expect the economic situation to remain the same next year while ruling coalition supporters said it would improve. That means that the SPS Step Into the New Century campaign has injected optimism into hard line regime supporters and relaxed opposition voters somewhat without moving them from their decision.

Right now it seems that variations in voter support won’t have a serious effect on expected election results set by the balance of forces in 1993 and 29 district electoral system. Since the first poll showed similarities with the 1993 elections and the fact that the number of MPs is dictated by a different layout, the VREME documentation center decided to simulate the vote count based on possible election results (see election compass) so readers can get a realistic image of election chances.

The system will be shown on the example of electoral district 1 Palilula where four MPs will be elected. We took the SPS 1993 results, the total results of the Zajedno members and the SRS results and divided them by 1, 2, 3, 4.

Zajedno 101,321/1 = 101,321

SPS 50868/1 = 50868

Zajedno 101,321/2 = 50660.5

Zajedno 101,321/3 = 33773.67

SPS 50868/2 = 25434

Zajedno 101,321/4 = 25330.25

SRS 21251/1 = 21251

The first four candidates get elected in Palilula. Zajedno leads the SPS by 3-1 and the growth of its ratings in Belgrade by 6% probably won’t affect the outcome. In fact, the numbers in most electoral districts won’t be affected by the change in ratings. The SPS will win the elections in Serbia 58 parliament seats to 40 mainly thanks to Kosovo, where they’re leading 12-0 in three districts. Similar simulations with a narrowed down Zajedno showed an outcome of 63-32 which means Kostunica’s decision to join Zajedno brought the coalition nine seats which the DSS would have lost on its own.

The first pre-election poll shows that could win in terms of voter numbers (28.5%-24.2%) but that ratio will change to the end of the campaign.

The ruling coalition will win in terms of parliament seats, regardless of whether the difference in popularity will grow or drop.