Belgrade Must not Fall

For the ruling socialists the preservation of the majority and the power in Belgrade has become no less an important political goal (which they do not hide) than preserving it in the Federal Parliament. The socialists will be distributed on the defense lines of Belgrade (at any expense) and in the city parliament with 110 seats, together with the representatives of JUL (without the New Democracy). It only still remains to be seen who will hold which position after the electoral battle is over.

For the coalition Zajedno presumable victory in Belgrade could be even more important than winning the majority in the Federal Parliament. Some of the leaders of this coalition maintain that it will be sufficient to win in Belgrade, Nis, Novi Sad, and to be just one step behind the left coalition on the federal level. The victory in Belgrade would mean that the stocking of the socialist power has started to rip seriously, and that "the government's balloon has become perforated" (Zoran Djindjic). The opposition thus hopes that Belgrade could become Zagreb's equivalent with Milosevic pushed in Tudjman's position with no majority in Zagreb, forced to bring decisions using all his skills.

"The Battle for Belgrade" will start on November 3, and will last until November 17. Both sides know that everything will be solved in the second round and will keep their main arguments and heavy artillery for the period between the two electoral rounds. The government counts that this time it could gain a majority in the city parliament via the suburbs and votes from Mladenovac, Obrenovac, Grocka, Sopot and Lazarevac. There, say Vreme's sources from SPS, almost everything is known and the local officials of this party are just "buying new suits and getting ready to speak" for the first days after the elections. In the downtown area, however, it is risky to buy even new socks, let alone new suits. There in the central city communities, according to the opinion of the socialists, they are facing the fierce battle for each street and building. The Socialists are hoping that the short-lived opposition power in some of the Belgrade's communities is sufficient to discredit the opposition power and show that it was only "hungry for power and money". With it also goes a theory favorite to the top people from the party in power that the opposition is not interested in facing the real problems of society but only to gain power from Kalemegdan to Slavija (maybe Dedinje), because that is where the money is. The one that controls this distance of several trolley stations, controls in fact some 75% of the Serbian capital, 45% of industry and almost 100% of the foreign trade. And who has that, has the power in Serbia.

Obviously aware of this, both sides have put forward in their lists for Belgrade their strongest candidates and are seemingly getting ready to spend most of the money for promotion between the two electoral rounds.

The first pre-electoral crossing of swords has just been announced this week in the GSP where the mayor Nebojsa Covic has put stop to the strike of dissatisfied drivers, short and sweet. From the directive "Belgrade must not fall" came another - that in "the Belgrade streets there must not be chaos in the eve of elections." Overnight, the assault units stormed among the strikers, arrested the organizers and attributed connections with the opposition parties to them. the pre-electoral message is more than clear: Covic, who in some circles is considered to be a "soft" socialist, introduced order with the help of assault units and gained the new, enviable time on television for additional promotion of the message "We must go on!"

The recent happenings in Belgrade's streets strengthen certainly Covic's position in the finish of the race for the new mayor. Along with Covic, political sources see the president of Belgrade's socialists Branislav Ivkovic and the president of Belgrade's organization of JUL (their hope) Slobodan Cerovic as the candidates for this position on the government's side. On the side of the opposition, they see Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic in the position to grab the position of mayor and some, although indirectly, mention the leader of the Radicals Vojislav Seselj also as a possible candidate.

Regardless to how firmly everything is that's cooking in the Belgrade's political kitchens (assuming there is a "seed of truth" in all those stories), it is obvious that the competition for the first man of Belgrade has never been greater. Until a few years ago there was the belief that the mayor of Belgrade is similar to the driver of the machine that often breaks down (like the buses of the GSB) and that the one that accepts this position (by his own free will or by punishment), also accepts to draw upon the anger of degraded, frozen and famished fellow-citizens. In the new, peaceful times, and with more available money than before, leading Belgrade becomes incomparably a more attractive job than some years ago. From that office one could aim at more prominent political offices in the future. After all, Jacque Shiraque was twice the mayor of Paris before he became the President of the Republic. Each of the mentioned candidates for the position of Belgrade's mayor has so far offered a sufficient pretext to speak about him as about "the most serious candidate" for this office.

As far as Covic is concerned, it could be said that the party he belongs to really counts on him as a long-distance racer, although at the moment it is not sure which lane he will be awarded with after the forthcoming elections. Outside the SPS he is considered as maybe "the most capable SPS men" and "the capable technocrat" who succeeded, in the times of hardship, to elevate himself from the gray scale personnel which rules in the ruling party. In contrast to the most of the personnel of this party, whose insignificance is given significance mostly by the government-controlled media, Covic knew to assign himself appropriate importance, even on such occasions as during the official "putting into operation" a several hundred meter-long section of the re-coated highway. At the same time, he was extremely efficient as the president of the Basketball Federation of Yugoslavia. A few months ago, the government-controlled media have, for instance, devoted much more time to his "three points" scored against the Montenegrin politicians, than to the fact that at the same time some thirty thousand workers asked for bread in the streets of the city of Nis.

The fact that he sometimes sticks out from the personnel average is at the same time his greatest handicap within his own party, where he has stumbled several times already, but has always kept his balance. The last time when he was expected to be sacrificed was right before the March congress of the SPS, but finally, in spite of all rumors, he ended up as the member of the Executive Board of the Party. Covic's major disadvantage is in the fact that he is not liked much within JUL, from where there are often criticisms that the city policy must be led in accordance with the interest of the citizens, instead of the personal promotion of individuals. Many from Covic's surroundings claim that he is "the only one who can finish the job for SPS in Belgrade," i.e., bring them electoral victory. In any case, if he gains the new mandate, Covic will not keep this office until the next elections. Those well informed claim that he could remain mayor until the next draw for the federal deck of offices. The position of Nebojsa Covic is extremely good in the deck, partly due to his successful cooperation with the authorities in Podgorica, which is an extremely important quality on the federal level.

The president of Belgrade's socialists and the Minister for Civil Engineering in the Government of Serbia Branislav Ivkovic has never expressed his wish to become mayor. When asked whether he is to be the future mayor of Belgrade, he assured that he "likes the position he currently holds" and that he has not executed many of the initiated projects. However, the discussion on this subject he considers "trivial amusement" influences the formation of vanity in certain people. Ivkovic stresses that it is of incomparably greater significance which party will gain a majority in the city's Parliament than who will be the mayor, adding that he does not hold Zoran Djindjic to be a dangerous competitor of Nebojsa Covic.

Those well-informed claim Ivkovic rates incomparably higher than Covic, and that, in contrast to the current mayor, he is liked both by "mamma's" and "papa's" followers (translated from the internal SPS language, this means both "Mira's and Sloba's"). Ivkovic is, at the same time, much more favored by the government-controlled media, which follow each and every his step. He and Covic are frequently appearing together. Those who are malicious say it is because they want to keep an eye on each other in order not to let "the other party" gain a considerable advantage. Seemingly, they play for the same team, but their rivalry is difficult to hide. It seems that Ivkovic has recently overtaken the stock of bonds of the RTV Studio B that was previously under the care of Covic. (The final destiny of this station will be, to all likelihood, resolved between the two electoral rounds after the "electoral trends" become clear. In any case, the possibility that the opposition overtakes control over Studio B by gaining a majority in the city Parliament will be, most probably, be made completely obsolete.)

Those well informed also claim that Ivkovic has not come to the list of candidates for the city Parliament out of nowhere, "just to be another of common representatives".

"Every citizen of Belgrade probably wishes to become the mayor," is the pre-electoral slogan of Slobodan Cerovic, president of the City Board of JUL, who in an interview recently openly expressed his wishes to become the mayor: "Who says differently, is sure to be lying. It is as if someone asked you whether you would like to spend three days with Cindy Crawford. The stories about me taking the office of the first man of the city are, in a way, an award for my work so far. I am honored to hear that."

The SPS people do not speak gladly about the ambitions of their coalition partner Slobodan Cerovic. Cerovic is officially still the SPS member and one of the first "refugees" to JUL. He has been the director of the catering firm Metropol for 11 years now and his coalition partners see no spectacular achievements that could recommend him for the mayor's office.

In his present company Cerovic has, however, shown that he was probably the most severe critic of Belgrade's current authorities, and he has been severely reproached for that several times by the socialists. Rumor goes that this position was promised to him, allegedly, by Mira Markovic herself.

If Covic and Ivkovic have spent at least two quarries so far in the campaign, opening new edifices and laying down various cornerstones, Slobodan Cerovic is certainly a candidate that has so far promised the most to the Belgrade citizens. Among other things, he has promised a just social policy (the officials will not receive salaries until the pensioners and the workers receive their pensions and salaries), suppression of crime within only three months, two new bridges, new railway lines and roads, reconstruction of the War Isle. And among the socialists it could be heard from time to time that it is good that the campaign is getting closer to an end, because Cerovic, the way he has started, would promise at least another river to the citizens of Belgrade. And after that he will have to promise another bridge.

"Belgrade must fall" could be the shortest pre-electoral approach of Zoran Djindjic, the only opposition leader that has so far admitted his ambition to grab the position of mayor. Djindjic, however, has not received the official consent of his coalition partners. Some of them, as it can be heard, are inquiring if Djindjic is serious and what are his real intentions. About the seriousness of the DS leader, he admits himself that he has allocated one half of the funds intended for the campaign toward the fight for the Parliament, and the other half to the fight for Belgrade. He is also one of the supporters of the theory that, for the beginning, the opposition would suffice to overtake the power in Belgrade and use it as the starting point to rock the system. Investing in this race, the DS leader has promised the voters to cancel "Covic's city tax of three per cent" and to collect hundreds of millions of dinars owed to them by construction "mafia". Djindjic, however, expects that he will win easily in the first round in Vracar; then he plans to start a fierce campaign for the mayor's position, assisted by the coalition Zajedno.

Along with these four candidates, many candidate themselves are on their own in various newspapers, but all of them may be collected under the slogan "Take me, for instance". Those include mostly the self-pronounced candidates from SPS and JUL that spread talks around Belgrade that they are liked by both "mamma" and "papa" and that somebody should nominate them. But nobody did. Some of them promise these days a "better future" to their fellow citizens, having previously (during the war and sanctions) at least increased tenfold their wealth as newborn businessmen.

To conclude this review of the list of possible candidates for the mayor of Belgrade, it must, of course, be mentioned what is most probable to happen under the condition that the SPS-JUL wins the elections for the city parliament. The interpretation of what will happen was given to us by a city official of SPS, who has stated for Vreme: "Who will be the mayor of Belgrade in case that we win is known to only one man. If everything ends as planned, Slobodan Milosevic will summon Branislav Ivkovic and tell him who the new mayor is. I do not exclude the possibility that he will tell him: You are the one. This is what happened after the previous elections when Slobodanka Gruden was summoned and later became the mayor. All else that has been said on this issue, including the self-advertising of individuals, belongs to mere speculations. All other functions on the level of the city will be decided afterwards by the Main Board of the party. Thus, all those that maintain that they are "on good terms with mamma and papa", are only trying to drive a hard bargain. We have made a deal not to prepare the grill while the rabbit is still in the forest, because first of all we have to gain the majority in Belgrade. So, there are still few of those that may buy new suits and order speeches."