Busman's Holiday

Foreign diplomats who saw the President after his traffic accident, and following the end of the March 9 demonstrations of members of the opposition parties and subsequent rebellion of Belgrade secondary school children, say that he looked tired and tense, quite unlike his usual image. He told them that he needed a few days' rest and that he would be leaving for Athens to walk its streets "like any other tourist".

The official version in Belgrade gave that it was "simply a matter of vacation". Nonetheless, not only in the diplomatic circle but in the whole of the political community the conviction prevailed that the President was taking a busman's holiday.

The vagueness surrounding the President's excursion first arose concerning the choice of means of transport. Long distance travel by car, even if its a Mercedes, through the territory of the "foreign" state of Macedonia, does not strike one as the best variant. However, unless the President is a passionate lover of motor travel, the thought occurs that his recent car accident could in fact be the reason he didn't travel by air.

The doctors that VREME consulted pointed out that Milosevic had recently suffered concussion when he hit his head on the windscreen. Travel by plane, where there are frequent changes in cabin air pressure, could be a risk for someone recovering from this kind of injury.

Doubts concerning the President's health were nonetheless dispelled on Saturday when journalists noted his youthful ascent of the steps to meet the Greek Prime Minister, Konstantine Mitsotakis. The political aims of this visit, however, have remained unclear.

The question of Serbian Renewal Movement MP, Aleksandar Taskovic, in the Serbian Parliament as to how long the President would be abroad and whether his departure had anything to do with the extraction of Serbian capital to Cyprus, was very barbed. The answer was that MP's questions could only be made to the government and ministries.

A "spicier" explanation of some of the circumstances surrounding the President's stay was offered by "Borba" which brought to light that the amount of two million dollars has been mentioned as having been spent last year on the renovation of the embassy building in Athens. Among the "number of attractive apartments" gained by this reconstruction, there is one in the attic, well placed from the aspect of security and intended for choosy guests. Informed sources add that the President's seventeen year-old son, Marko, has recently visited the Ambassador, who some see as the future Minister of Foreign Affairs of "little Yugoslavia".

The populist and leftist "Avriyani" states that the President met with a"royal envoy", but there are no detailed particulars.

The lack of reliable details on the content of Milosevic's talks in Athens was probably one of the reasons why not only the Greek press took to conjecture. "Politika Weekly", the Belgrade newspaper printed in English, also expressed the opinion that "the people should be informed about some of what seem to be bizarre details regarding the private life and behaviour of their President". Among these details this newspaper, which is intended for foreign readers, lists is: "Did the President, like his fellow citizens, obtain from the responsible military body a permit for travel abroad? And, did he and members of his family, have at their disposal an adequate amount of hard currency necessary for such travel? At which bank, at which exchange rate, did they buy this currency and did they have to present the border customs officials with a certificate of the origin of this hard currency, as do other citizens?"

Macedonian television noted that the Serbian President's car was not stopped at the toll ramp on the motorway. On the one hand, government official in Skopje say ironically that Macedonia is able to bear the protocol costs of transit by any foreign statesman. On the other, however, political circles in Skopje were struck by the possibility that Milosevic maybe wanted to use his travel to show that he still considers Macedonia part of Yugoslavia and that he does not feel like a "foreign statesman".

Mr. Gligorov's Cabinet denied that the Macedonian president had met with his Serbian colleague on the latter's return from Athens. VREME has learnt that there were preparations for a meeting, but that it was not held, despite the understandable desire on the Macedonian side to be informed of details of the talks in Athens. At the same time, it must interest Milosevic to know what Gligorov talked about with the leader of the Democratic Union of Kosovo, Ibrahim Rugova.

In Skopje there is no doubt that Macedonia was one of the most important themes in Athens. It was no surprise when Mitsotakis, after his meeting with Milosevic, announced that "regardless of whether it seemed realistic at this moment", according to opinion in Athens, "the only lasting solution to the Yugoslav problem is some form of federation of Serbia and Montenegro with Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Skopje".

This announcement is in line with the alleged plans of the State Department, about which VREME has already reported, to arrest the Yugoslav collapse by establishing a loose federation of four. Greek diplomats don't hesitate to say that, should Macedonia be divided between Albania and Bulgaria, they expect military intervention on the part of Serbia who, in this way, would preserve for itself the flow of traffic via the Vardar valley to the port in Thessaloniki.

On the other hand, the Munich daily "Suddeutsche Zeitung" judges that "behind the almost hysterical stand of Greece (in connection with Macedonia), lurks an old trauma: the fear that the main enemy Turkey could cut off the land of the Hellenes from Europe. There exists a possibility of joining the states of Turkish Thracia through Bulgaria and Macedonia to Albania. As an answer to such a constellation there is the possibility of a union between Athens and Belgrade. Is this the front line of a new war on the Balkans?".

A similar standpoint was given by the Serbian government close to "Politika", concluding that in the framework of estimation that the European Community, Germany and the USA "see some personal interests" in the secession of Macedonia and that "Greece has lost the war with Skopje"; "The separation of Macedonia brings about the final isolation of Greece, which is left alone and on its own" as the 'bastion of orthodoxy' in southeastern Europe, in this way making more difficult the position of the future state of Yugoslavia".

It is believed in Skopje that Milosevic persuaded his Greek counterparts not to relinquish their opposition to the recognition of Macedonia in the European Community. At the same time, the public in Athens is still under the delusion that Washington won't recognize Macedonia along with Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina "until an adequate formula of title is found" and until Skopje accepts a form of federation with the truncated Yugoslavia.

Western diplomats in Belgrade believe that the most important subject in Athens for Milosevic was to test whether his last line of defence - the proclaiming of a Serbian-Montenegrin state as heir to Yugoslavia - would meet with support from the European Community and the USA. The Greek Prime Minister is his only direct collocutor amongst the twelve, and is his "natural ally" at least at this moment. As noticed by observers, however, Mitsotakis has recently begun to talk of Serbia and Montenegro as the carriers of Yugoslavia, but no longer mentions "little Yugoslavia".

Washington has made it known that it considers it dangerous to expose Milosevic to the humiliation of seeking international recognition of Serbia. In this way he would be subjected to frightful internal pressure, and could, according to American opinion, start another war, this time with Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, Germany and some other countries in the European community have started up a new offensive to break Milosevic: they believe that the hour has struck for the Kosovo question to be solved in that the recognition of Serbia would depend on giving the Albanians in the province the same rights as the Serbs in Croatia.

The next step of the West in the Balkan crisis could be extremely unfavourable for Greece and Serbia: Athens is threatened with the recognition of Macedonia, and Belgrade by the "delegitimization" of Yugoslavia, as well as opposition to the succession rights and international legitimacy of Serbia. In addition to this, both states fear that after the victory of the opposition, non-communist leader, Sali Berisa, the realization of a "Greater Albania" will receive more favour abroad.

A British emissary expressed the opinion that is "quite amazing how much sympathy Serbia still enjoys, in spite of its president". The word "sympathy" actually means consolation.