Come On, Let’s Go, All - Walk!

The protest of several thousand walkers in the streets of Belgrade that have been going on for several weeks now due to the annulment of the opposition victory in the local elections, the city clamor with the sound of whistles, this "April in Belgrade" and the best party in town that has been going on for 35 days now has become some sort of in vivo experiment for the consultants team from the Institute for Sociological Researches (ISI) from Belgrade, which has already published the results of their unique sociological research, PROTEST ‘96.

"Although it was clear from the very beginning that the main motive for the protest was the annulment of the results of the second round of the local elections, we suspected that underneath the manifested reason lay the requests for much deeper changes that give a social character to the protest. The results of the research have shown that it is, however, a political protest, but derived not only from depriving the opposition of its victory but also bear another most important requests: a change of the regime and the resignation of Slobodan Milosevic. The thesis about the wider sociological character of the protest is supported by the fact that almost one-third (30.6%) of the polees request a democratization of the society," says Slobodan Ciric.

The polees encompassed by this research are mostly in favor of the society based on the Western raw model: 92.9% of the polees answered affirmatively to the question whether Serbia should build a system similar to that in the West. Behind this verbally expressed wish, there are much more realistic and important indices: an expansion of freedoms (51.6%), and after that a more secure future (31.9), a better standard of living (19.7), all Serbs living together in one state (8.3%) and career advance (7.5%).

"All this points to the conclusion that the key driver of the Protest is FREEDOM, as the basic value of a liberal ideology. Additional evidence of the liberal character of the protest, that is of the ideology and the system of values of the demonstrators whose social, demographic and political profile varies considerably, is their attitude towards enterpreneurship as a condition for the advancement of society. This attitude is accepted utterly or to the greatest degree by some 80% of the demonstrators, say the researchers.

The dilemma whether the protest is civil or national in character is false. Our polees associate themselves with democratic goals and civil values: the most important request is the recognition of the election results, which signifies a legitimity of the election procedure. The citizens of Belgrade are asking for democratization, free media, affirmation of individual values in order to feel more dignified and free," stresses Ph. D. Vladimir Vuletic while talking to VREME. He adds that one of the basic conclusions of the Protest ‘96 is that it doesn't have a predominantly anti-Communist character as was the case of some previous demonstrations. Not even the membership in certain political parties considerably influences such devotions, with the exception of Seselj’s Radicals, who are, however, scarce in the protest walks of the opposition.

The sociologist Cvejic says that the researchers have tried to recognize how many nationalists exist among the demonstrators: 13.3% of the citizens of Belgrade directly reproaches Milosevic for damaging the Serbian nation and national interests or for neglecting the national issue; 89.2% believe that Milosevic has done nothing for the benefit of Serbia during his career; only 6.7% believe that it is good that he has awakened national consciousness. These people support (95% partially or utterly) the traditionalist position that "the people who do not cherish tradition deserve to be doomed" and that "one must not trust foreigners too much".

The results of the poll show that the participants of the protest are not directed towards the international factor to a greater extent: only 4% of the polees believe that the longevity of the protest has to do with international support, some 15% of the polled citizens of Belgrade say that they were glad of support from abroad, which possibly speaks of relief after the widespread belief that the West would support Milosevic due to his role in the Dayton Agreement, says the sociologist Marija Babovic. It is indicative that one-third of the demonstrators believe that the pressure from abroad is one of the most important means to force the government to fulfill the requests. However, much grater importance is assigned to the internal factors: more than half of the polees (57%) believe that a general strike would be the most persuasive mode of pressure, while more than one-third think that the goal can best be achieved by long-lasting peaceful protests.

The Protest ‘96 is beyond doubt a political protest, but it can hardly be concluded that it was organized by the opposition. The main conclusion of the research team from ITI is that, although the confidence in the leaders of the opposition exists, the citizens are not there because of the leaders and a simple switch of the ruling figure, but because of the specific political requests and mass protest which still doesn't have completely articulated goals.

VREME's collocutors stress that it is almost impossible to evaluate the perspective of any social occurrence, especially spontaneous ones. Nevertheless, Marija Babovic considers that the freed energy of the citizens could not be suppressed any more: we are becoming an active society that puts social flows under control. Slobodan Cvejic is not so optimistic: the citizens have gained legitimity, but the government did not give them power. However, he also agrees that there is no return, because there were considerable changes in the collective consciousness. He observes as one of the key problems the fact that 60% of the citizens of Serbia has only elementary school education. "The government was not capable of estimating the validity of the protests. Some new kids have arrived who use their heads to think and seek their place in Serbia - they are not willing to queue up in front of the embassies. The government did not understand the essence of the civil protest, these people are not the same - they are not frightened by threats and media satanization. If the protest is choked, it will burst out again at the first opportunity. There is no dilemma - either modernization, or disaster", says Vladimir Vuletic concisely.

A similar opinion is shared by the majority of demonstrators: 98% state that they will support the protest until the end regardless of its duration, although they are aware that to win freedom is no easy task and that probably not all of the requests will be achieved.

For 35 days already the number of "walkers" walk the streets of Belgrade (popular badges with the same inscription hang on the lapels of the female citizens of Belgrade this season). The most numerous are those between the age of 20 - 29, but the middle-aged are also very active: one quarter of the demonstrators are people in their fifties, and 14.5% are those between 50-59, while those over 60 make 13.4%.

Sociologist Marija Babovic stresses that the demonstrators considerably stand out by their education level from the citizens of central Serbia: while in the total population 60% of the citizens has only elementary school education or a lower level of education, this category is represented by only 2.7%! On the other hand, there are more M.A.s and Ph.D.s - there are 3.1% of them among the walkers. The most active in the protest are the citizens with high-school education, advanced specialist's training and university level specialist training. There are even 24.4% experts, mostly from natural and technical sciences. Then come the students and the scholars, followed by the clerks and technicians.

The political profile of the "walkers" crucially differs from the image of the demonstrations of the coalition Zajedno: half of the demonstrators are supporters or members of the coalition Zajedno. However, 30% of the "walkers" are neither members, nor supporters of any party. In the protest that has been going on for weeks now in the streets of Belgrade and most larger cities of Serbia it has become irrelevant who belongs to which party.

Another feature of the Protest ‘96 are the new demonstrators that have never before protested in the streets (18.7%). Most of the new demonstrators come from the student circles (biological renewal), but there are top officials as well. It is interesting, observe the researchers, that there are no industry workers who appear for the first time in the demonstrations.

The walkers are a persistent breed: even 98.3% are ready to back up the protest until the end, regardless of its duration! Some 80% of the polees are in the protest from the very beginning, and most of the demonstrators daily participate from the beginning till the end (all three hours). This kernel of the protest, according to the estimates of the researchers, make up daily number of 44-66,000 people, among them one-fifth students, whose "demonstration work hours" are from 12 to 18.

Most of the polees say that they chant out slogans and use noise requisites, and 65.8% said that "they would be ready to throw eggs even if they knew the police camera was shooting". The demonstrators gave high grades to the opposition leaders, they are satisfied with the versatility of actions and the behavior of the demonstrators, and even by their personal contribution to the protest. Marija Babovic says that from the quoted facts it can be concluded that Protest ‘96 has such a nucleas, support and durability that it is ready to put in a lot of time in order to achieving the set goals. Of course, if it all depends only on the walkers... Finally, let’s stress this: 93.1% of the poled citizens of Belgrade consider that the protest should maintain its peaceful character until the end.

The Dispute Between Patriarchal and Modern Serbia

The Street Taste of Democracy

Even when constant dripping wears away the stone, it can be expected that the awakened civil consciousness will contribute so that a modern system shall prevail over the traditional one

1) The Roots: Professional disorder makes me search for the causes of the existing few-years-long crisis of the uncompleted transition from a traditional society to a modern one. More precisely, I see the causes in the fact that the traditional, agrarian, patriarchal, rural system of values still stubbornly resists the modern, urban system of values. Even a hasty look at some developmental features supports this thesis. The participation of the literate became greater over the participation of the illiterate in 1931 for the first time. The participation of the non-agrarian inhabitants became greater than the rural only at the beginning of the 60s. The participation of the employed with elementary school education was over 50% only in the middle of the 80s, and, finally, the participation of the urban inhabitants, due to the tempestuous migrations from the rural areas to the urban areas, became greater than the participation of the rural only at the end of the 80s. Thus, it could be said that the basic preconditions for democratic development and ascendancy of the modern system of values were satisfied only at the end of 80s, and only after a few decades of accelerated industrialization and urbanization.

Regretfully, the quality of these two processes (measured by the achieved income per capita) is fairly modest. And not only due to the short time in which the changes, which in the developed countries took centuries to model, happened, but also due to the ideological obstacles to the normal development of the processes. Which is why here we could say that we had quasi-industrialization and quasi-urbanization. And that means that the majority of the workers has low education and training, that a considerable portion lives in the village and works in the city, so their fear of a transition from such a system into a market economy based on competency is not something to wonder about.

2) The Turnover: Along with the struggle of the two different systems of values unfolds the struggle for liberation from the centuries-long fear of those in power. After 500 years in the course of which local, and then foreign feudal lords oppressed, and two dynasties choked freedoms, followed by fifty years of communism which in its final phase turned into an utterly open dictatorship, the threshold of suffering has finally been exceeded. The arrogance of the current regime, expressed through such a degrading mockery of the freely expressed will of the people, has gone too far and caused a new phenomenon - an awakening of civil consciousness. The former fierce, and for that reason short-lasting peasant rebellions, remembered by their leaders, have been replaced for the first time by the peaceful, persistent manifestation of civil disobedience. And in them, as opposed to the "happening of the people" from the end of the 80s, the request is not for a new leader, but for the protection of the basic principles of a civil society.

3) The Outcome: The general belief is that there are only two possible outcomes - a bloody one, like in Bucharest, and a peaceful one like in Prague. Used to the violent nature of this regime, most of the casual observers and a good part of the participants in the events believe that the first one is more probable. Unfortunately, they could be right. But it also seems that the second outcome is not less probable, but also is more likely to occur. Namely, the situation resembles a chess game in which seemingly the opponent with all the "heavy" figures on the chessboard has an advantage, but in fact he has no worthy move open to him, because all of his powerful figures are captured by his opponent's pawns.

It could even be said that the current president has already announced civil war to his own people by his moves during the latest local elections.

However, since slavery is the only alternative to the protest, each day brings less probability that this large mass of people will bend and become silent, because it is clear to everyone that after that only a several-decades-long silence would ensue. His attempts to weaken the strength of the protest by threatening the demonstrators, first verbally, then by arrests and police torture, have, to his astonishment, created a counter effect. Obsolete tutorials from the area of putting the fear of God into the masses will not be of help any more, because he faces something which is not described in those books and for which there is no good police answer. That’s why the measures undertaken by the regime just increase the masses in the streets, resolute to protect their essential rights.

Therefore, the counterpart of the increasing resistance to the obstinacy of the regime and the insistence that at least once the switch of power occurs peacefully, is only his unquenched craving for power and his fear that descending from the throne would lead directly to The Hague. As for his craving for power, it could weaken when after many months of demonstrations he becomes assured that his power exists only on paper. Therefore the only option is to provide him with a descend from power which would not lead to The Hague. A satisfactory solution should be found, having in mind that the alternative is a bloody solution.