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December 28, 1996
. Vreme News Digest Agency No 273
Stojan Cerovic's Diary

Tremendous Shock

Therefore, despite all, the former nationalistic leader has decided to gather and bring his army to Belgrade, at the same hour and at almost the same spot where the enemy troops rally regularly. Police experts have most definitely warned him of all possible risks and must have been surprised that he was ignoring them. They probably don't understand that this man looks on the whole situation from a different perspective. Deep inside, he has already declared war and didn't even want to simply rally his sympathizers at Terazije and hold the meeting, but was actually expecting a conflict and was preparing the first half-military operation.

I now see how much I had overestimated his capacity for reasoning, when I thought that he wouldn't dare take such a step. I felt that it was one of those situations when a person does not know whether to fear success or defeat more. Last Tuesday in Belgrade there could easily have been fifty or a hundred and fifty dead. If Milosevic was really head of the state of Serbia, he certainly wouldn't have taken such a risk, even if his supporters could have fared a lot better. However, he operated as a leader of a street gang which is at war with another one over power in a certain suburb.

Judging by all accounts, he would have deemed it as successful if the opposition demonstrators had completely withdrawn or if there had been a much smaller number of them than of his people, which would have been a small and short-term victory. It would have been even better if a general fight had erupted, since he would have had a motive to bring out the tanks. In that last and dearest to him version of success, the tanks would have been left forgotten on the streets and the squares up to the moment when the community would have agreed to forget the election theft and forgo its votes in future as well. The more dead people there are, the longer and more stable the tyranny is. Therefore, this statesman and patriot as unequaled in the world has last Tuesday with a lot of hope pricked his ears to hear fighting, consumed with desire for there to be plenty of blood while awaiting a blessing from above in the form of corpses, regardless of whose.

All was conceived so as to enable a safe and unhindered battle. Smaller and larger units met in various streets, while the police carefully avoided to become involved, up to the moment of the very beginning of the meeting. However, it turned out that we were extremely lucky. His army turned out to be scarce and totally non-motivated. It didn't even manage to rally in full numbers, since certain units were forced to take to their heels far away from Terazije and got lost in the unfamiliar city. Those unfortunate people were obviously perfectly unprepared for what awaited them.

The paradoxical effect of the propaganda lies was probably never more apparent. Namely, these people gathered from the furthest provincial spots might have found their feet better if the truth had been told them of the situation in Belgrade instead of waiting to come face to face with a handful of traitors. On the other hand, if they had known the truth, they wouldn't have been so eager to carry the tyrant's pictures. These supporters of Milosevic as seen on television, wise, powerful and adored, must have suffered a terrible shock in the unexpected clash with reality and it is no wonder that they started running from the very sound of thousands of whistles.

Once they return to their villages and small towns, they shall tell stories for many years to come of a thousand-headed-monster which had chased them, accompanied by hellish screeching, howls, clanking and thumps, and how they barely managed to come out of it all alive. Some shall, due to the horror that they had endured, possibly start hating and despising Milosevic, while others shall in future admire him even more, for managing to fight and withstand such a dragon. In any case they shall never be talked into coming to Belgrade again to break up any kinds of handfuls.

Therefore, Milosevic's army met with defeat and would have been driven away from Terazije if the blue helmets hadn't had stepped in, and even after that, until the end of the meeting, one part of Terazije remained empty. On top of all, there were no dead, nor even seriously wounded, which presents another strategical defeat. Finally, far away from the battle scene, there was attempted murder from fire-arms, which was even filmed and immediately sent off to CNN, as though the tyrant wasn't jinxed enough for that day.

I think that we can now be sure that such meetings of support for himself shall never be organized by him again. That weapon was tried out and used up. The question is, where do we stand now? It appears that we have been left alone with him, just as he with us. This is no longer an FR Yugoslavian issue, since Montenegro has totally distanced itself, does not follow Milosevic's game and all would be overjoyed to see his back there. If they don't see his, he'll see theirs. This is no longer a Serbian nor Belgrade issue but rather an issue that only belongs to Milosevic, his wife and a few of their people. Everyone who had what to say, has said it on a number of occasions and shall say it again. In such a case, however, repetition does not help comprehension. From all similar situations it is well known that tyrannies on the way down unusually revel in illusions and resolutely refuse to notice where they stand, how big they are and where they are headed. Sometimes, prior to the actual collapse, they are absolutely thrilled that from somewhere alleged salvation is coming. Hope does wonders and totally defeats every bit of reason.

When, for example, Milosevic decided to invite the OSCE delegation, he was somehow certain that he would receive some kind of support or that at least an acceptable way out shall be presented him. The man had assessed that he was too important for the world, as well as that all the stories of democratic principles actually mean nothing to no one, that no one takes them seriously and that even the obvious theft would not be put to the question, which is something, or so he believes, everyone is doing all of the time. When Gonzales let him know that neither is he so precious, nor are the principles so insignificant, Milosevic suddenly found out yet again how corrupt the world was. As of then, the theory of the anti-Serbian conspiracy is valid once again, and the opposition becomes the "fifth column".

Therefore, this regime which has done all that it could lately (even if it amounts to hardly nothing) to become reconciled with the world and squeeze out some kind of help from there, is now forced to isolate itself, which means that world factors shall probably no longer be of great help and influence here. Therefore, no funds shall arrive until this affair is sorted out. What else can the tyrant try now, rationally assuming that he has lost all contact with reality? Well, judging by the calendar, the 6th of January is drawing near. Yet I am almost positively certain that the left dictatorship has missed its opportunity.

After a counter-meeting such as this one, Milosevic seems weaker than before, and it is no longer apparent how he could remove the demonstrators from the streets. Even if he was to ban such rallies it would be of no help since there is no police force which could hold such a mass. That police force would eventually have to realize that it is easier, quicker and cheaper to remove just the one person - him. Ignoring the meetings and walks doesn't help anymore either, since he has already admitted how horribly they irritate him, as though all those thousands of people are trampling over him personally.

And if he was to arrest Draskovic, Djindjic and Vesna Pesic? That would only evoke horrible, unbearable noise from all sides, while even these whistles are drilling through his brain. Anyway, he had already attempted such a thing with Draskovic when things were easier and he had to let him go. When he thinks things over, he himself could be capable of withstanding all pressure, bearing all accusations and paying any price, only to shake off these walkers. Yet the trouble is that he simply cannot rely on his people. There are never enough criminals and madmen which would follow the tyrant to the very end and he sees now how all those around him have started to fidget a lot. There practically seem to be no more possibilities by which the opposition could lose this advantage and allow Milosevic to find a way out. Almost each new move that they make proves to be a winning one, just like each of his leads only towards various forms of defeat. Due to psychological reasons, out of an obligation towards history and the country, the opposition should not allow it. Milosevic's end has to symbolically mark a new beginning and let no one demand more blood. The opposition and all of us must seriously prepare for such an end, even though it doesn't seem to be within reach yet. If the tyrant soon invites someone for negotiations, the sole topic should be a search for a civilized way for him to leave. In the meantime, we are walking and blowing our whistles.

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